alcons host Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to prove they’re for real when they visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. The winner moves into first place in the NFC South.
Bodog.com has the Buccaneers as solid eight-point ‘dogs with the total still to be released. Most other sportsbooks have the total set at 44 ½-points.

Tampa Bay (5-2 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread) is a huge surprise being tied with Atlanta and the NY Giants for the conference’s best record. Coach Raheem Morris even made the bold statement that his team is the NFC’s best, although NFL oddsmakers clearly disagree.
Green Bay and the New York Giants are both 7/2 to win the conference. Atlanta (4/1) and New Orleans (9/2) are next, with Tampa Bay way down at 28/1. There are nine teams listed ahead of the Bucs.
There are several reasons for the skepticism. The Buccaneers were horrible last year at 3-13, with Morris seemingly overmatched for the job. The schedule has also been easy this year, playing only two teams that are currently over .500. One of those was Pittsburgh and the Steelers beat them 38-13 despite playing without Ben Roethlisberger.
However, Morris deserves a lot of credit and so does 6-foot-6 quarterback Josh Freeman. The 22-year-old showed promise in 10 games last year even with a 59.8 quarterback rating, His rating is up this year (87.1), but more importantly, he’s shown the penchant for pulling out close games.
Four of Tampa’s five wins have come by a field goal or less. Freeman engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in all four, including last week at Arizona (38-35 as three-point underdogs). Tampa Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS away, with additional wins at Carolina (20-7) and Cincinnati (24-21) as ‘dogs.
Rookie LeGarrette Blount is the new featured back after gaining 192 yards the last two weeks. He’ll be needed to provide balance and keep the Atlanta defense honest.
The Falcons (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week. Their last game was a wild one at home against Cincinnati. Atlanta jumped out to a 24-3 margin, only to see Cincinnati storm back for a 25-24 lead. Atlanta then scored 15 straight points and held on for a 39-32 win.
Atlanta has a balanced offense with the fifth-ranked rushing attack (137.4 YPG) and 11th in passing (233.4 YPG). Running back Michael Turner is healthy again and Roddy White is one of the best receivers in the league. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been very solid, but must be careful as Tampa leads the league in interceptions (14).
Turner will be facing the league’s 30th ranked run defense (149.4 YPG), so expect a big dose of him early and often.
The Falcons defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in total yards (356.1 YPG). The pass defense has been torched the last two games by Carson Palmer (412 yards) and Philly’s Kevin Kolb (326 yards). Those aren’t exactly All-Pro quarterbacks and Freeman will test the secondary again, especially to rookie Mike Williams.
The Falcons’ offense is scoring 34 PPG in their three home games and 18.3 in the four away. They’re 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at home this year and 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as a favorite.
The ‘under’ is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games following a bye week.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 in the last six meetings against Atlanta (3-0 ATS away). The ‘under’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Atlanta cornerback Dunta Robinson (concussion) and rookie linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (knee) are two key players listed as questionable. Safety Thomas DeCoud appears probable with a head injury.
Kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. (PT) on Fox. Weather is not a factor in the Georgia Dome.