NFC South preview

on’t like the team on top in the NFC South? Wait a year and somebody else will be king of the castle. The NFC South hasn’t produced back to back division champs in its entire eight-year existence.

New Orleans, the defending Super Bowl champion, is expected to break the one-and-done spell in the NFC South but it’s always tough to return to the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.

The Carolina Panthers are in a rebuilding mode, although word out of Las Vegas is bettors are taking a flyer on the longshot Panthers to win the division with Matt Moore at quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dominated by new faces this season and the Atlanta Falcons have the talent to make a deep playoff run, providing they can stay healthy.

New Orleans Saints

Projected win total: 10.5

Prediction: Over

What’s new: The biggest loss on defense was linebacker Scott Fujita (Browns) but they picked up defensive ends Alex Brown (Bears) and Jimmy Wlikerson (Buccaneers), linebacker Clint Ingram (PUP with a knee injury) and cornerback Patrick Robinson. Running back super sub Mike Bell went to the Eagles and backup QB Mark Brunell became a free agent.

What’s the same: Despite dealing with some injuries, the offense is as potent as it was last season with quarterback Drew Brees, backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and receivers Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem.

The team averaged about 400 yards of offense and 35.7 points a game in the regular season. Brees threw for nearly 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns and Colston had 70 receptions for 1,074 yards.

On defense, the secondary is in good shape with cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter and safeties Roman Harper and Darren Sharper. Defensive end Will Smith had 12 sacks last season.

Key stat to remember: The Saints led the league in defensive touchdowns (eight) and finished with twice as many as the team with the second most.

Atlanta Falcons

Projected win total: 9

Prediction: Over

What’s new: The Falcons took a strong step to improve their defense with the additions of cornerback Dunta Robinsons (Texans) and draft picks Sean Weatherspoon and William Moore. Safety Matt Giordano (Packers) should help too. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry, last year’s first round pick, returns after missing the season with a knee injury.

What’s the same: Quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner return after an injury-plagued 2009 campaign. Receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez provide two sure-handed wideouts across the middle and downfield. Michael Jenkins is another wide receiver but the ace in the hole could be receiver Harry Douglas who missed all of last season with torn ACL. Defensively, Jamaal Anderson, Jonathan Babineaux and defensive end John Abraham are the anchors.

Key stat to remember: The Falcons were one of the best ATS teams in 2009. They went 11-5 against the number and two of their non-covers came with starting QB Matt Ryan missing part or all of the game.

Carolina Panthers

Projected win total: 7

Prediction: Under

What’s new: Quarterback Jake Delhomme has departed and is with Cleveland and receiver Muhsin Muhammad retired. Thomas Davis was lost to a season-ending knee injury in the spring. Delhomme’s departure opens up the starting job to Matt Moore or drafted quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Moore will likely begin the season as the starter but will surely have a short leash with Clausen on board.

For years the Panthers have searched for a standout No. 2 receiver and there is potential with drafted receivers Brandon LaFell (LSU) and Armanti Edwards (QB turned receiver, Appalachian State). The Panthers will be searching for a standout pass rusher with Julius Peppers with Chicago now.

But there were some gains on defense with the additions of linebacker Eric Norwood (South Carolina) and defensive tackle Ed Johnson (Colts).

What’s the same: The running game is the strength on offense with running-back-by-committee duo DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who each rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. As usual super star receiver Steve Smith is hurt – he’s out indefinitely after breaking his arm in a flag football game.

Dwayne Jarrett is another starting receiver but Lafell will make a serious challenge for that No.2 spot once Smith returns. A mediocre defense is led by cornerbacks Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall and linebackers Jon Beason and Dan Connor.

Key stat to remember: The Panthers went 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread with Matt Moore under center.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected win total: 6

Prediction: Under

What’s new: Among the key losses for the Bucs are receiver Antonio Bryant (Bengals), quarterback Byron Leftwich (Steelers), safety Will Allen (Steelers) and defensive end Jimmy Wilkerson (Saints). The Bucs hope that drafted receivers Arrelious Benn (Illinois) and Mike Williams (Syracuse) and Reggie Brown (Eagles) will step in and make an immediate impact.

The defense picked up defensive tackles Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) and Brian Price (UCLA) and safeties Sean Jones (Eagles) and Myron Lewis (Vanderbilt).
What’s the same: Quarterback Josh Freeman returns for his sophomore season after a tough rookie season. The best receiver on paper for the Bucs is tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. who had 77 receptions and nearly 900 yards.

Receivers Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall will be challenged for playing time. Right guard Davin Joseph and center Jeff Faine lead a mediocre offensive line. Running back Cadillac Williams stayed healthy in 2009. But he and backup Derrick Ward will need to improve to give the team a balanced attack on offense. Cornerbacks Ronde Barber and Agib Talib return with Barber getting up there in age. Barrett Ruud leads the linebackers.

Key stat to remember: Tampa Bay had the third worst team quarterback rating at 59.8. The Bucs played below the total in six of rookie QB Josh Freeman’s eight starts.