Overs having a season
The ‘over’ has gone 72-56 this season for 56.3 percent of all games. That includes a 9-3 mark this past week, pending the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati game on Monday Night Football.
The New York Jets and Detroit needed overtime yesterday (23-20 Jets win) to squeak ‘over’ the 42 ½-point total.
Seven teams lead the ‘over’ brigade at 6-2 for the season. They are Arizona, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, New England and the New York Jets. Here are details on two of them.
New York Jets
The Jets are averaging just 4.5 PPG in home losses versus Baltimore and Green Bay. However, the offense has been strong in their six wins at 28.8 PPG, all going ‘over.’ That includes 29 PPG in their four road games.
The defense has been strong as expected (16.3 PPG, third in the NFL). However, there have been several low totals which has also helped the ‘over.’
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is only scoring 20.1 PPG (ranked 19th) despite being 10th in total yards. Too many costly turnovers and penalties have limited points. Things aren’t likely to get better with Dallas scoring 12 PPG (two games) with quarterback Jon Kitna starting over the injured Tony Romo.
While the offense has underperformed to the 'over,' the defense has more than offset it at 29 PPG. It allowed 15.6 PPG last year in comparison. This is one of the most talented units in the league, but the Cowboys seem to have given up allowing 35.8 PPG the last five games.
There are three teams that lead the ‘under’ charge at 6-2. Here’s a quick analysis.
Chicago Bears
New offensive coordinator Mike Martz was supposed to turn the Bears around. Instead, they rank 27th in the NFL in scoring (18.5 PPG) even with quarterback Jay Cutler limiting his interceptions (seven) compared to last year (26).
The defense has looked good overall, allowing 16.6 PPG. One caution note for the future: the last four games have come against four of the worst offenses in the league (Carolina, Seattle, Washington and Buffalo).
St. Louis Rams
Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford has been better than expected (75.6 quarterback rating), but the offense still ranks 29th in the league at 17.5 PPG. A big problem is a lack of receiving weapons, which limits Bradford’s yards per attempt to 5.73 (32nd in the NFL).
The Rams’ defense let up 44 points at Detroit, but has kept everyone else under 20. Some easy foes are a reason, but they held San Diego’s Philip Rivers to his second-lowest passing effort of the year (249 yards).
Carolina Panthers
Carolina was expected to struggle offensively, but its 11 PPG is still shocking. That’s 5.3 PPG lower than the next team (Seattle, 16.3 PPG). Quarterback Matt Moore (torn labrum) is out for the season with an injury, which means either Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike (both rookies) will start. Clausen has a 48 quarterback rating is his stints this year.
The Panthers’ defense is ranked 22nd in the league at 23 PPG, so the poor offense has really driven the ‘unders.'