NFL Betting: 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 15 TDs and nearly 1,400 yards in 2009.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in a tough division with the Colts, the Texans on the rise, and Tennessee. After a disappointing season and only a few offseason moves, Jaguar fans have very little to look forward to in 2010.

The NFL betting win line for the Jags is seven, and I feel that a lot has to go right for this club to reach seven wins.

David Gerrard has not stepped up his signal calling and many feel he regressed in 2009. The Jaguars do have pro-bowler Maurice Jones-Drew, but the offensive line is gong to have to do a better job of pass protecting for the running game to really reach its potential.

The real problem for the team in 2009 was a defense that recorded only 14 sacks, the fifth-lowest in NFL history since sacks became an official stat. At any level of football, the lack of a pass rush places immense pressure on the secondary and if an NFL quaterback has more than 3.5 seconds to pass, he will certainly have at least one wide open wide receiver.

Reflecting the lack of a pass rush is the fact that Jacksonville is 0-8 against the spread against weak passing teams gaining just 5.7 or fewer yards per pass attempt. So even the poor passing teams designed game plans to take advantage of the weak Jacksonville defense.

As a result, Jacksonville spent the first four picks of this year’s draft on the line and also traded for middle LB Kirk Morrison, who had 133 tackles and two sacks with the Raiders last season. These are all moves in the right direction, but it will take at least a season for the rookies to develop and for the defensive chemistry to be built before they can play as a top-level NFL defensive unit.

Looking at the odds to win the AFC, only the Kansas City Chiefs have longer odds at 45/1. Jacksonville, Cleveland and the Raiders are currently 40/1 long shots.

Jacksonville's 2010 schedule starts out with a tough game at home versus Denver. However, the underdog is on a 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS run and I feel certain that Jacksonville will be between a 'pick' and a three-point dog.

Keep track of Jacksonville as the season progresses and play the Jaguars any week after they score nine or fewer points. They are a strong 13-3 ATS (plus 9.7 units) after scoring nine points or less in their last game since 1992.

Despite a poor 2009, their schedule ranks 14th in the NFL this season. Jacksonville will need a lot of things to go their way plus stay healthy in order to challenge the Colts and Texans.