Week 11 NFL Trends

by Sportsbook Breakers
Bears at Dolphins – The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since November 27, 1997 as a road dog when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 at home. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 21, 2002 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The League is 14-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since December 19, 2004 as a dog the week after when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties. The Dolphins are 0-9-1 OU (-10.2 ppg) since September 20, 1992 as a home favorite when they are one game above 500 after a straight up win.

Bills at Bengals – The League is 11-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since October 11, 2009 as a road dog the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning. The Bills are 7-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 15, 1991 on the road when they won by 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Bills are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 18, 2007 versus any team with more wins, after a straight up win. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since September 27, 1998 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a TD+ dog. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since September 13, 2009 as a home favorite. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since October 26, 2008 after a straight up win. The Bengals are 0-9 OU (-10.3 ppg) since December 10, 2006 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

Cardinals at Chiefs – The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (14.2 ppg) since January 02, 1994 as a home 7+ favorite after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 05, 1989 as a home favorite the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since October 10, 1999 as a favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (14.5 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since November 06, 2005 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-9.1 ppg) since November 06, 2005 the week after a loss in which they had at least 300 yards passing.

Lions at Cowboys – The Lions are 6-0 ATS (4.9 ppg) since November 23, 2003 as a 7+ dog when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 22, 1998 as a home favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since October 12, 2003 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 16, 2007 as a favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Lions are 8-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since November 11, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (16.4 ppg) since October 23, 2006 at home versus any team with the same record.

Giants at Eagles – The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 08, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Giants are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since September 21, 1992 after a straight up loss at home versus the Cowboys. The Eagles are 0-7 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since October 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Giants are 8-0 OU (16.2 ppg) since October 01, 2000 the week after at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Eagles are 11-0 OU (12.7 ppg) since November 14, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road.

Buccaneers at Fortyniners – The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-15.7 ppg) since November 30, 2008 when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since December 18, 1995 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 17, 1989 as a home favorite when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 7-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since November 26, 1995 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The 49ers are 7-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since October 14, 2002 after playing at home versus the Rams.

Browns at Jaguars – The Browns are 7-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a dog the week after at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a home favorite versus any team with fewer wins. The Browns are 6-0 OU (14.5 ppg) since October 07, 2007 on the road when their dps was positive in their last two games. The Jaguars are 10-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a favorite the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since December 24, 2006 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.

Texans at Jets – The Texans are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 13, 2005 as a 7+ dog after playing on the road. The Texans are 6-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since December 26, 2004 as a road 7+ dog after playing on the road. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since October 26, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.

Ravens at Panthers – The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 06, 1998 as a home 7+ dog after playing as a dog. The League is 11-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since November 22, 2009 on the road the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Panthers are 0-11 OU (-10.0 ppg) since January 02, 2005 after playing the Buccaneers. The Panthers are 0-7 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a 7+ dog after playing on the road.

Colts at Patriots – The Colts are 9-0-1 ATS (4.5 ppg) since November 09, 2008 on the road after a straight up win at home as a favorite. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 04, 2000 within 3 of pick after playing as a dog. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since October 20, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 0-9 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 13, 1992 after their opponent played the Steelers. The Patriots are 9-0 OU (5.2 ppg) since September 19, 1999 within 3 of pick when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Falcons at Rams – The Falcons are 6-0-2 ATS (10.1 ppg) since September 15, 1991 within 3 of pick the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 8-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since October 23, 2005 the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since October 27, 1991 as a dog after a loss on the road in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Falcons are 0-10 OU (-8.8 ppg) since December 29, 2002 as a road favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The Rams are 6-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 16, 1997 at home the week after a straight up loss in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties.

Seahawks at Saints – The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since November 20, 2005 on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-15.0 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Saints are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 11, 1992 as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Saints are 0-6 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since December 15, 2002 at home when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Seahawks are 12-0 OU (10.6 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a road dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up win. The Seahawks are 9-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 10, 1989 as a road 7+ dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Raiders at Steelers – The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 02, 2003 the week after their bye. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since October 29, 1995 at home the week after at home in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-6 OU (-6.2 ppg) since October 03, 1993 as a road dog the week after their bye. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since October 29, 2001 at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as a 7+ favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.

Redskins at Titans – The Titans are 8-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since November 17, 2002 at home the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since October 01, 2000 at home the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since October 31, 2004 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Packers at Vikings – The Packers are 6-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since September 10, 1995 within 3 of pick at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (16.9 ppg) since November 15, 2009 at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games. The Packers are 8-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since January 04, 2004 when they won and covered their last three games. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a home dog versus any team with more wins, after a straight up loss.

Broncos at Chargers – The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 23, 2003 the week after scoring 34+ points at home. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since December 13, 1992 as a dog after playing at home as a dog. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 28, 2007 at home when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 02, 2005 when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (14.8 ppg) since December 17, 1994 as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.