AFC West preview: San Diego

The San Diego Chargers should take no prisoners in this division and anything less than a Super Bowl victory will be a disappointment to their fans. San Diego is one of the top five favorites at Las Vegas sports books to win the Super Bowl led by franchise quarterback Philip Rivers.

While the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will likely struggle to find their identity this season, the sleeper in this division is the Oakland Raiders who replaced quarterback/No. 1 draft bust JaMarcus Russell with former Washington starter Jason Campbell. On paper the Raiders seem poised for 6 to 8 wins but I believe the potential is there for nine or 10 wins.

San Diego Chargers

Projected win total: 11

Prediction: Over

What’s new: The Chargers shouldn’t take much of a hit with the departure of veteran running back LaDainian Tomlinson and cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who both landed with the Jets. Tomlinson is aging and 2008 first-round pick Antoine Cason should fill in nicely for Cromartie. The biggest loss could be nose tackle Jamal Williams. The Chargers moved up 16 spots in the recent draft to get tough running back Ryan Mathews (Fresno State) who will make an immediate impact.

Other additions are cornerback Donald Strickland (Jets), receiver Josh Reed (Buffalo), linebacker Donald Butler (Washington), left tackle Tra Thomas (Jacksonville) and defensive tackle Cam Thomas (North Carolina).

What’s the same: The passing game continues to be solid with Rivers, tight end Antonio Gates and veteran receivers Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd. While losing Tomlinson and Cromartie might not hurt, what could hurt most is Jackson’s three-game league suspension (violating league’s personal conduct policy, DUI).

Adding depth to the receiver spot is 2007 first round pick Buster Davis who has been plagued by injuries the last three seasons. Speedy running back Darren Sproles and bruising newcomer Mathews will complement each other. Mathews will likely see more short-yardage carries but Sproles has the ability to break a 50-yard run at any time.

Defense should be solid with linebacker Shawne Merriman fully recovered from knee surgery he had two seasons ago. Cason will be tested early and often in the defensive secondary but underrated cornerback Quentin Jammer’s solid 2009 season should carry over to 2010.

Key stat to remember: The Chargers have 67 regular season wins since 2004.

Denver Broncos

Projected win total: 7.5

Prediction: Under

What’s new: Receiver Brandon Marshall, who tested management’s patience throughout the 2009 season, was traded to Miami. Tight end Tony Scheffler, another solid receiver, was traded to Detroit. The Broncos drafted Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech) in the first round and he has game-breaking ability. But can he make an immediate impact?

Quarterback Brady Quinn (Cleveland) will compete with Kyle Orton for the starting job with drafted QB Tim Tebow a work in progress. Other key additions who should improve the defense are nose tackle Jamal Williams (San Diego), defensive ends Justin Bannon (Ravens) and Jarvis Green (New England), and linebacker Akin Ayodele (Miami).

What’s the same: Sorry, but QB Kyle Orton won’t bring back memories of John Elway, especially with the big loss of game-changer Marshall and an injury-prone offensive line that needs work. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter are experienced running backs.

Key stat to remember: Denver started off like gangbusters in 2009 with a 6-0 record but went 2-8 the last 10 games for an 8-8 final record.

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected win total: 6.5

Prediction: Over

What’s new: The key additions included a pair of seasoned coordinators with offensive guru Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel. Weis should help with QB Matt Cassel’s maturation. Crennel should help the Chiefs improve their pass rush and also finally grasp coach Todd Haley’s 3-4 defensive system instituted last season.

Power running back Thomas Jones should help form a solid 1-2 punch with the speedy Jamaal Charles. Other key additions are guard Ryan Lilja (Colts), safety Eric Berry (Tennessee) and return specialists Javier Arenas (Alabama) and Dexter McCluster (Mississippi).

McCluster and Jerheme Urban (St. Louis) add depth at wide receiver. Rookie tight end Tony Moeaki (Iowa) has the potential to be another Tony Gonzalez.

What’s the same: While the offensive line still needs work, moving the ball and scoring points shouldn’t be a problem as long as Cassel can revert to his Patriots form. Charles is a solid back and Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers are solid receivers.

Key stat to remember: Only the Browns and Lions allowed more offensive yards per game than the Chiefs.

Oakland Raiders

Projected win total: 6

Prediction: Over

What’s new: There had to be a huge collective sigh of relief from the Raiders’ locker room when Russell was released and Williams was acquired at QB. This change will have a ripple effect across the board on offense. At the very least, Raider Nation now has a QB who can actually get the ball to a receiver consistently for the first time since Rich Gannon. Another plus is first-year offensive coordinator Hue Jackson who helped develop Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco.

Other key additions are middle linebacker Rolando McClain (Alabama), defensive tackles Lamar Houston (Texas) and John Henderson (Jacksonville) as well as offensive tackle Bruce Campbell (Maryland). McClain, who will likely take over for Kirk Morrison (Jacksonville) and Houston strengthen the defense. The offensive line still needs improvement but Campbell should help.

What’s the same: Sure, the Raiders have many of the same players on the team they had when they won five games last season. But the addition of a quality quarterback means a lot. Tight end Zach Miller was the best receiver for the Raiders last season. Watch for better production from receivers Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Johnnie Lee Higgins.

The key for any success, as it is for most NFL teams, is keeping the front-line players healthy. I’ve always been a huge Schilens fan and if he stays healthy I believe he can make a huge impact with the upgrade at QB. Running back Darren McFadden has been a bust (856 yards in two seasons). But if McFadden can stay healthy, with Justin Fargas a free agent and no longer in the mix, he can be a major player in 2010.

Key stat to remember: The Raiders ranked 31st in total yards per game last season with 266.1. They averaged 12.3 points a game last season. That production should change in 2010.