Best ATS teams since 2006

Unpredictability is something that makes the NFL so popular with its fans and frustrates the hell out of those who bet on the league.

Pro football bettors are constantly on the lookout for any abstract statistic that could give them an advantage at the wagering window. Sometimes it just helps to know the simple numbers – like which teams cover the spread most often.

We did a little bit of digging and found the five squads that have enjoyed the most success against the spread over the last four years.

Green Bay Packers (38-23-3)

In 2005 the Packers were an awful team. They won just once in their division, went 1-7 on the road and finished the year 5-9-2 against the number. Things turned around for the Pack when Mike McCarthy was hired as head coach in January of 2006. Green Bay has made the playoffs twice with two different quarterbacks at the helm thanks to McCarthy’s guidance.

Green Bay’s ATS peak came last season when Aaron Rodgers and Co. covered or pushed in each of their final eight games. Affection for the Packers isn’t isolated to sports betting circles. Many NFL pundits are pegging McCarthy’s men as Super Bowl contenders in 2010.

Tennessee Titans (37-27)

Kerry Collins shoulders an unexpectedly large role in the Titans’ ATS record over the last three years. He took over the quarterback job after Week 1 in 2008 and lifted Tennessee to an 11-5 ATS finish. Of course, he was also a big part of the reason Jeff Fisher’s squad started out 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS the following year.

Vince Young won back the starting job under center, so his play should determine how well the Titans do against the number this season. Of course, it’d help too if Fisher’s defense returned to its 2008 form (seventh in total yards allowed) instead of the group that finished near the bottom in yards allowed a year ago.

Atlanta Falcons (36-28)

Atlanta has not finished below .500 ATS since 2006 and should be a force to reckon with in 2010. The Falcons 19-13 ATS record on the road during this time will only get better. A healthy Matt Ryan will be entering his third year at quarterback after an injury-riddled season.

The Falcons will also have workhorse running back Michael Turner back at full strength. In 2008 Turner finished second in the league with 17 rushing touchdowns. In 11 games in 2009 he scored 10 touchdowns. In the seven games he passed the goal line, the Falcons went 5-2 ATS.

New England Patriots (36-26-2)

Who would have ever thought a NFL franchise could go 21-11 over a two-year span in the NFL and be considered on the decline? Well, that’s the position many are suggesting Patriots are in. But bettors are well aware of New England’s downward trend. In 2007-08, the Patriots were 10-6 ATS during their undefeated run, but then went 9-7 and 7-7-2 ATS in consecutive seasons.

Defense is the area head coach Bill Belichick needs to be concerned about, particularly his team’s inability to rush the quarterback. The Patriots had 47 sacks in ’07-08, but the team fell to 31 sacks in ‘08-09 and ‘09-10. In the seven games the Patriots lost ATS last season, they averaged less than a sack a game.

Indianapolis Colts (35-27-2)

Like the Atlanta Falcons, the Indianapolis Colts have not finished below .500 ATS since 2006. But their record can be deceiving. Three of those losses occurred with four-time MVP Peyton Manning holding a clipboard on the sidelines because of Indianapolis’ tendency to rest players in the team’s playoff position has been locked up.

The Colts were 6-2-1 ATS when Manning’s top target, Reggie Wayne, scored a touchdown in 2009. The other three teams in the AFC South, Houston (18th), Jacksonville (27th) and Tennessee (31st), finished in the bottom half of the league against the pass last season. Expect the duo to win big in 2010.