NFL efficiency ratings

There are some stats that don’t tend to carry over from year to year – red zone efficiency, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Understanding these numbers will help bettors gauge which teams are under and overvalued at their current season win total numbers.

Let’s start in the red zone, looking at teams that converted chances into touchdowns last year. The Arizona Cardinals led the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage, converting at better than 70 percent. Indianapolis, Minnesota and Miami all had conversion percentages of better than 60 percent.

Quality quarterback play is the key for red-zone efficiency. The Colts will have Peyton Manning back. The Vikings are widely expected to have Brett Favre back. And Miami has one of the most innovative offenses in the league, with coordinator Dan Henning calling the shots once again this year.

The team most likely to take a tumble down in red-zone efficiency is Arizona, following Kurt Warner’s retirement. With a re-tooled offensive line and all kinds of question marks surrounding Warner’s expected replacement, Matt Leinart, look for the Cardinals’ red-zone numbers to drop significantly in 2010, resulting in a significant decline in points scored.

On the other end of the spectrum lie the bottom feeders. Buffalo, St Louis, Seattle, Oakland and Cleveland were the five worst teams when it came to offensive red-zone efficiency last year. It’s no surprise that the best of the bunch (Buffalo) finished at 6-10. When you can’t score touchdowns, you can’t win. Plain and simple.

Again, we look at quarterback play – not the running game - as the key to red-zone offense. Buffalo’s QB situation is a mess heading into training camp. St Louis is likely to start rookie QB Sam Bradford. And the Browns are counting on a bounce-back season from 35-year-old Jake Delhomme, who was positively awful last year in Carolina. Don’t count on big jumps from any of those three squads.

Oakland made a significant upgrade at QB, acquiring Jason Campbell from Washington this offseason. Campbell had an 86.4 QB rating for the Redskins last year, in sharp contrast to JaMarcus Russell’s QB rating of 50 with the Raiders. Tom Cable’s squad should be better at scoring TD’s when they have the chance in 2010.

It’s a similar story in Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck battled through an injury-plagued season in 2009, but he’s reportedly healthy and ready to go for new head coach Pete Carroll in 2010. If Hasselbeck struggles again, the Seahawks finally have a decent backup in Charlie Whitehurst. Again, we should expect red-zone improvement from this squad.

Last year, the defensive leaders in the red zone included the Redskins, Saints, 49ers, Jets and Ravens. San Francisco and New York clearly have top-tier defenses again in 2010 - two teams that could come close to matching last year’s excellent numbers.

But Baltimore has real concerns on the line and in the secondary and is poised for a decline. New Orleans forced what seemed like a million turnovers in the red zone, but it’s hard to repeat two years in a row. And Washington completely re-made its defense in the offseason, with a new head coach, a new defensive coordinator and a whole host of new defensive starters. Expect the Redskins drop off to be the most dramatic among this quintet.

When it comes to overall offensive and defensive efficiency, look at the simplest stat out there – yards per play gained and yards per play allowed. These numbers give us a clear picture of how good the offenses and defenses really were, giving us a starting point for the 2010 campaign.

Dallas, New Orleans, Indianapolis, San Diego and New England all gained more than 5.9 yards per play last year. Again, the quarterback is the key piece of this equation. All five teams have their quarterbacks returning, and all five are truly elite-level QB’s. The only way we’ll see a significant offensive decline from anyone in this group is if their respective offensive lines or receiving corps suffer from injuries. And it’s too early to gauge that now.

Cleveland, St Louis, Oakland and Detroit all gained less than 4.6 yards per play in 2009. We’ve already discussed the Rams and Browns likely continued struggles as well as the Raiders potential for improvement. Detroit falls into the same category as Oakland. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is no longer a rookie and the skill position talent around him has been upgraded significantly.

Green Bay finished with the No. 2-ranked defense in the NFL last year in both yards and yards per play allowed. Yet, the last time we saw the Packers they were getting torched in a 51-45 OT loss at Arizona in the playoffs. The Packers also allowed 37 points in a loss at Pittsburgh, 38 in a loss at Tampa Bay and 38 and 30 in two losses to Minnesota. What gives?

Green Bay played a litany of bad offensive teams last year, facing the second-easiest schedule in all of football. It’s not so hard to put up great defensive numbers when you lead the league in turnover margin (plus-24) while facing a schedule loaded with weaklings. We can expect a defensive decline here.

Along with Green Bay, the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Eagles and 49ers all allowed less than five yards per play last year. We’ve already discussed New York, Baltimore and San Francisco. Cincinnati’s defense looks very good once again, returning every starter as well as defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.

The Eagles, however, are a team poised to take a fall in these defensive efficiency rankings. Philly could have as many as six new starters on the defensive side of the ball - a completely revamped unit this year.

Next time, I’ll take a first look at the numbers that have been popping up here in Vegas. The goal, of course, is to see where the early money is going, both on season win totals and on the Week 1 NFL numbers.