NFL Week 1 trends

Road favorites are 14-9 against the spread and 16-7 straight up since 2006. Last year the Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys all rolled in their first contest of the regular season, while the Chargers won but failed to cover against the hosting Raiders.

You’ve got to like the chances for road favorites in Week 1 again this season. There are seven teams giving points this coming week, including Super Bowl contenders Indianapolis, Dallas, San Diego and Green Bay.

Here are a few other trends to keep in mind in the opening week of the season:

What’s the magic number?

It’s a quarterback’s league and passing is the chief attacking option for today’s offenses. Still, have a running back gain 100 yards on the ground is a winning formula.

Teams with a 100-yard rusher in Week 1 last year went 5-0 SU and ATS. The trend is just as pronounced over the last three years. Teams with a back over the century mark went 6-1 ATS in Week 1 of 2008 and 6-0 ATS in 2007.

New head coach doesn’t mean new results

The Colts had a seamless transition between former head coach Tony Dungy and new sideline boss Jim Caldwell. Indy went all the way to the Super Bowl under Caldwell’s guidance.

Bettors shouldn’t buy into the new coaching blood with NFL franchises. Bad teams usually make coaching changes, not good ones like the Colts.

Teams with a new head coach are 3-9 ATS in the opening week of the last two regular seasons.

The Good the Bad and the Over/Under

Here are some random trends courtesy of matchup pages on Covers.com:

The Good

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games and 5-0 in their last five September games.

The Jaguars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 contests.

The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.

Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five Week 1 matchups.

The Bad

The Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 10 season openers.

The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games.

The Over/Under

The Patriots have played over the total in 10 of their last 13 season openers.

The under is 6-0 in the Bears’ last six Week 1 games.

The Steelers have played over the total in seven of their last eight Week 1 contests.

The under is 9-3 in the Ravens’ last 12 Week 1 matchups.