NFL Week 17 lines moves

January 02, 2011

The final week of the NFL regular season is an oddsmaker’s worst nightmare. The questions surrounding player availability and team motivation delay lines for as long as they can, and when the odds do come out, bettors jump all over any spread they see as weak.

That makes for some very drastic line moves in Week 17. Here are the most notable:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -8 Move: -9.5 Move: -7.5

This spread is about as stable as a drunk girl with a busted heel on New Year’s Eve. The line was immediately bet up to 9.5 before bettors bought back the Bucs, who have a long shot at the postseason, dropping it close to a field goal. New Orleans is locked into a playoff spot but can claim home-field advantage through the playoffs with a victory Sunday.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets – Open: -3 Move: Pick

This spread opened as high as -3 in favor of the Jets last Sunday and has come all the way down to a pick’em with a lot of bettors expecting a half-hearted effort from New York, what with its playoff spot etched in stone. Buffalo is going to give backup QB Brian Brohm a kick at the can while Jets pivot Mark Sanchez will at least start Sunday’s game.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Open: -1.5 Move: -4.5

This spread opened with the public expecting Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to rest his starters in the season finale, having already locked up to the top spot in the AFC. But, as football bettors have come to know, Belichick loves to keep everyone guessing and has this line rising to 4.5. His starters say they want to play, which is about par for the course (no one is going to say, “Give me the week off”), but there is still that uneasy feeling that Belichick may call off the dogs in Week 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans – Open: +2.5 Move -3

This spread has flipped, with the news that Jacksonville will be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew and QB David Garrard in Week 17. Add to that, Houston should be motivated to end on a high note after falling short of the playoffs – again. Head coach Gary Kubiak was assured he will keep his job, which is a lot of pressure off the team in the season finale.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -8.5 Move: -10 Move: -9.5

The Colts aren’t used to giving a crap about Week 17. They’re usually planning for the postseason and sitting starters in the season finale. This year, Indianapolis has a lot riding on Week 17’s matchup with the Titans – namely the AFC South crown. The Colts can also grab the No. 3 seed in the AFC if they win and Kansas City loses Sunday. Bettors pumped this line to the key number of 10, the bought back Tennessee at a discount price.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Open: +1.5 Move: +3

It seems bettors don’t respect a team that can go 6-9 and still have a shot at the postseason in Week 17. Seattle can win the NFC West crown and punch a playoff ticket with a win over the Rams at home. However, the Seahawks’ losing skid isn’t sitting well with bettors, taking this line to a field goal. Seattle will also go with Charlie Whitehurst at QB, which is another reason why the money is fading the home side.