Week 17 NFL selections
By GREG COTE
My 2010 season of predictions has been a rough one, but because I make all my picks from home, at least I can say I had a better home season than the Dolphins. The final week finds me climbing a greased flagpole to still somehow catch .500 against the spread, and to finish on the right side of the .600 Mendoza line I currently straddle overall.
• Last week overall: 9-7 (.563); last week vs. spread: 8-8 (.500).
• Season overall: 144-96 (.600); season vs. spread: 111-117-2 (.487)
DOLPHINS (7-8) AT PATRIOTS (13-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Line: NE by 3 ½ Cote's pick: NE 27-20
Week 17 closes the regular season with the entire schedule on Sunday, every game a division game, and several of them -- including this one -- doubly tough to forecast because secured playoff slots could cause stars to play sparingly, if at all. Thinking Tom Brady here. But as little as The Cute One might play, and as good as Miami has been on the road, I still like the Pats here, even with the No. 1 seed already sewn up. Give Dolphs an upset shot if Brady is out early and Pats go on autopilot, but hunching English bring at least their B-plus game.
RAMS (7-8) AT SEAHAWKS (6-9)
When: 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)
Line: STL by 3 Cote's pick: SEA 24-23
``AAWWK!'' bellows the Upset Bird. ``How can two teams with losing records be the Game of the Waaawwwk!?'' Here's how: It's all or nothing. The winner is the NFC West champion and enters the playoffs as Cinderella-designate, and the loser is out. No other final-week matchup offers that elemental drama. Hunching the upset here as a pure venue call. Looks like Seabirds will start green Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback for injured Matt Hasselbeck, but that hardly is a deterrence on account of Hasselbeck at this point pretty much stinks. ``The NFC West is to divisions what socks are to Christmas gifts,'' analyzes the U-Bird. ``Seahaaawwwk! Happy New Yaaawwwk!''
CARDINALS (5-10) AT 49ERS (5-10)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: SF by 6 Cote's pick: SF 23-20
The Mutt-game panel narrowed it down to the three games in which both teams are out of the playoff hunt, and settled on this one because Cardbirds are 1-6 on the road and Niners just canned coach Mike Singletary, so disappointment and sadness reign. Frans beat Cacti 27-6 in late November and should again, but see it close this time.
PANTHERS (2-13) AT FALCONS (11-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: ATL by 14 ½ Cote's pick: ATL 24-16
A victory here is important to the Falcons to secure an all-important first-round playoff bye, and also to reestablish home-dome dominance after rare loss in the 404 to the Saints. Carolina, of course, was mathematically eliminated around the time Archimedes was inventing math, but, with the No. 1 draft pick clinched, they have nothing to lose by winning, and should at least keep it close.
STEELERS (11-4) AT BROWNS (5-10)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: PIT by 6 Cote's pick: PIT 20-10
Pittsburgh needs a victory to assure the big first-round bye, is a strong road team (6-1) and has dominated this Rust Belt series (winning 13 of the past 14 against Earthtones), so it's hard not to envision the Steelers in command. Also, Pitt last played Dec. 23, so has had extra time to prepare.
VIKINGS (6-9) AT LIONS (5-10)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: DET by 3 ½ Cote's pick: DET 27-21
How truly sad that Brett Favre will see his great career end in a week when he was fined $50,000 over the Jenn Sterger situation, and then (most likely) sat out his career finale because of a concussion. Vikes and Joe Webb mustered big victory at Philly in NFL's first Tuesday game since 1946, but short week is a big boost for Motown here.
RAIDERS (7-8) AT CHIEFS (10-5)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: KC by 3 ½ Cote's pick: KC 19-17
KC is trying to lock up the AFC's No. 3 seed, but Oakland is poised as a perfect spoiler, having won four of the past six in the series, including three in a row at Arrowhead. Raiders have not lost a division game all year, but the Chiefs are 7-0 at home. Something has to give!
BUCCANEERS (9-6) AT SAINTS (11-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Line: NO by 7 Cote's pick: NO 27-20
N'Awlins has its playoff ticket and could face a letdown after winning in Atlanta last week. Tampa needs a small miracle to luck into a postseason spot and should be in a plucky, fightin' mood after having egos bruised by zero Pro Bowl picks.
BILLS (4-11) AT JETS (10-5)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: NYJ by 1 Cote's pick: NYJ 28-21
Here's one of those tough calls because the Jets cannot improve their playoff seeding, have little to play for and so quarterback Mark Sanchez likely won't see much action. Thus, the near pick-'em betting line. But I have to think Rex ``Footsy'' Ryan will place a lot of emphasis on Planes not entering the postseason with consecutive losses.
BENGALS (4-11) AT RAVENS (11-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: BAL by 10 Cote's pick: BAL 23-20
Baltimore is trying to sneak into a first-round bye while Cincy writes the career obit for coach Marvin Lewis. Gals 1-6 on the road, but like 'em getting double-digit points here. They have won three in a row and six of the past eight over Crows, and for some reason, seem to give Joe Flacco trouble.
JAGUARS (9-6) AT TEXANS (5-10)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: Even Cote's pick: HOU 34-31
Jags alive but sneak in with a victory only in unlikely event Colts lose. Game leveled to pick-'em with news that David Garrard's finger surgery would make rusty Trend Edwards the starter at quarterback for the Jags. That, the venue and the Texans' desire to save coach Gary Kubiak's job shape the pick.
GIANTS (9-6) AT REDSKINS (6-9)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Line: NYG by 4 Cote's pick: NYG 28-14
Absolute must win for Biggies, who need to beat Redskins and also hope Packers lose (a possibility) to sneak into the playoffs through the servants' entrance. Tempting to pick Washers as home spoilers, but Eli Manning is on an 8-1 run in the series, and nothing about this matchup says Mike Shanahan's nightmare season will end happily.
COWBOYS (5-10) AT EAGLES (10-5)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: OFF Cote's pick: PHI 37-31
Weird game to call, with Michael Vick almost certain to sit this one out with a leg bruise, and with Jon Kitna also unlikely to play because of injury. So we're probably looking at Philly backup Kevin Kolb vs. Cows third-stringer Stephen McGee. Lean Kolb at home, but see a fair upset shot.
BEARS (11-4) AT PACKERS (9-6)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: GB by 10 Cote's pick: GB 27-20
This is our Game of the Week first alternate because the Bears not only own a first-round playoff bye but are in position to deny a playoff ticket to their traditional rival. The Packers are in with a win but would need much luck with a loss. Those stakes and venue make us feel really good with the Gee Bees, but point spread feels too fat.
TITANS (6-9) AT COLTS (9-6)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: IND by 10 Cote's pick: IND 27-20
Indy must win to guarantee itself a playoff spot, or pray Jacksonville loses. There is no reason to imagine the unfathomable -- Peyton Manning not in the playoffs. But love the Titans in a spoiler role, and see game close.
CHARGERS (8-7) AT BRONCOS (4-11)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Line: SD by 3 ½ Cote's pick: DEN 30-27
I might be nuts here because Diego clearly is the better squad. But Bolts also only 2-5 on the road, and Stallions are on 15-5 run at home in series. This isn't me praying at the altar of Tim Tebow. Just hunch a home-dog upset, that's all.
