Back to the Futures – 2010

We turned the NFL schedule up, down, and sideways this year, looking for any conceivable advantage. At first, we examined the “Regular Season Wins” futures. Generally, our bias is to try to find appropriate Unders, but nothing looked like a bargain. The divisions with the worst individual teams, namely the two west divisions, had the softest groupings of teams, so even bad teams playing in those divisions would have opportunities to win games.

The quarterbacking situation around the league made futures shopping a classic minefield. Too many teams were featuring new quarterbacks or second/third year starters who would either “get it” as the season wears on or would be solved by opposing DC’s. Too much musical chair quarterbacking, too many questions.

When the proverbial smoke had cleared, we settled on a known quantity at a good value. Our primary 2010 futures investment is on the San Diego Chargers to win the Suber Bowl at 15-1 odds. In addition, we have San Diego to win 10 1/2 or more games at a plus figure.

Our player futures, which had a tremendous return last year with Schaub at 45-1, are longshots in the dark for 2010. We have Felix Jones to win the rushing title at 65-1 and Chris Wells to win the rushing title at 35-1. We also have Jay Cutler to win the passing title at 18-1. To have any chance with Cutler we’ll need Mike Martz’s offense to click, and we’ll need Brees, Manning, and Rivers to all sit out a game or two after their teams have clinched berths. These players’ futures are generally one-tenth the size of the team futures investments.

That’s all we did for 2010 NFL futures. The season poses many questions, and if we see opportunities as the weeks unfold, we’ll report them here – a couple of hours after we’ve played them, of course.

Bob Dietz