Burned last week by wagering against

January 12, 2011

Seattle?It is tempting to go against 8-9 the Seahawks again Sunday when they meet rested Chicago at 10 a.m. PT on FOX in a division round NFL playoff matchup.
The Seahawks pulled a stunning upset beating New Orleans, 41-36, as 9 ½-point home underdogs.
Now the Seahawks are 10-point underdogs. The ‘over/under’ is 41. The spread is similar to last week. There’s a big difference though: Seattle is on the road.
The Seahawks are 5-19, 7-17 ATS the past three seasons away from Qwest Field, the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL.
Seattle lost and failed to cover in six of its eight road contests this year. Most of the Seahawks’ road losses weren’t close either. Seattle’s average road defeat was by 18.6 points a game.
If you discount a 34-13 away victory against San Francisco, the Seahawks averaged 14 points on the road this season.
An early start time isn’t beneficial either to Seattle, which is 5-15 in non-division road games that begin at 10 a.m. PT since 2005.
Seattle did, however, defeat Chicago at Solider Field, 23-20, in Week 6 as six-point ‘dogs. The combined 43 points went ‘over’ the 37 ½-point total. It was Seattle’s most well-rounded victory and marked its lone win against a playoff team during the regular season.
That victory should give the Seahawks some confidence, especially following their win against defending world champion New Orleans.
Aging Matt Hasselbeck surprised the Saints by throwing four touchdowns. Hasselbeck will be making his 11th playoff start.
Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has never started a playoff game during his five years in the league. Quarterbacks making their first start in the playoffs since 2003 are 5-19.
Cutler threw 23 touchdown passes in 15 games, but was picked off 16 times. The Seahawks sacked Cutler six times in their victory. Cutler attempted 47 passes in that game as the Bears ran just 12 times.
Expect a much more balanced Chicago attack this time.
Since Week 9, following their bye, the Bears have played much better going 7-2 after opening 4-3. There were a number of key factors for the turnaround.
Before their bye, the Bears ran just 38.8 percent of the time. After their bye, Chicago ran 50.8 percent of the time. Matt Forte had a strong season rushing for 1,069 yards and catching 51 passes for 547 yards, while accounting for nine touchdowns.
The Bears also made several changes in their offensive line to tighten pass protection. Cutler, always streaky, had a passer rating above 100 in four of his last five games.
Star linebacker Lance Briggs also got healthy after missing the Seahawks game. Briggs, linebacker Brian Urlacher, still a force at 32, and defensive end Julius Peppers give the Bears the three best defensive players on the field for this matchup.
The Bears have nine players with playoff experience on defense, but only three on offense.
Chicago ranked fourth in fewest points allowed at 17.9 per game, ranked third in takeaways with 35 and was ninth in total defense giving up 314.3 yards per contest.
Seattle coach Pete Carroll has had to play musical chairs with his battered offensive line all season. The result was the Seahawks finishing 31st in rushing and 28th in total offense. Seattle didn’t have a 100-yard rushing performance until Marshawn Lynch ran for 131 yards on 19 carries against New Orleans last week.
Seattle was out-scored by 97 points, the fifth-worst scoring differential in the league. The Seahawks also were out-gained by 1,183 yards, an average of 73.9 yards per game.
The forecast is for temperatures in the teens with a 20 percent chance of snow and seven mph winds.