The Green Bay Packers,

2 1/2-point favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl, will do better than that, according to an investment manager whose model has predicted the outcome of the past seven National Football League championships.

The study by Analytic Investors LLC in Los Angeles measures the profitability of bets on NFL teams to win each of their regular-season games. The firm has made Super Bowl predictions since 2005 and its model shows that in each championship since 2004, bettors have underestimated the team with the lower regular-season payout. This year, that’s the Packers.

While Green Bay is favored to win the Feb. 6 championship game in Arlington, Texas, the team’s performance relative to bookmakers’ odds was inferior to the Steelers’ during the regular season. Bets on the Steelers to win each of their games outright returned 29 percent, while the same bet on Green Bay returned 1.4 percent, according to Analytic.

“We believe the Packers will be able to cover the 2½-point spread,” said Brian Haskin, head of investment strategy at Analytic, a quantitative manager of $7.3 billion, mostly U.S. equities. “Bettors overvalue teams in the playoffs depending on how they did in the regular season.”

It’s analogous to investors assuming that a company that has consistently topped earnings estimates will continue to do so, Haskin said in a telephone interview. Bettors “aren’t having as much confidence in the Green Bay Packers as they should,” he said. “And as for the Steelers, investors are expecting too much from them.”

Colts Upset

In each of the past seven Super Bowls, the team with the less-rewarding regular-season performance in the analysis has either upset the favored team or covered the point spread. Last year, the Indianapolis Colts, who returned 39 percent during the regular season and were 5½-point favorites in the Super Bowl, lost to the New Orleans Saints 31-17. The Saints returned 13 percent during the regular season.

While Haskin is backing the Packers on the strength of Analytic’s findings, there is a “sleeper scenario” by which the Steelers might prevail, he said.

Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers’ quarterback, was suspended from the first four games of the regular season after being accused of sexually assaulting two women. The Steelers, underdogs in two of the games, won three, returning 75 percent on bets they’d win all four.

With Roethlisberger, the Steelers went 9-3 yet were upset twice and trailed expectations. Bet on the team to win every game lost 45 percent.

“If you used that as the number for the Super Bowl, the Steelers would be the lower-alpha team and end up being our favorite for the Super Bowl to cover the spread,” Haskin said.

While the logic may be sound, Haskin said he’ll stick with the full-season methodology.

“We’re still going with Green Bay to cover,” he said. “We still think they are the undervalued team in the Super Bowl.”