Week 3 Insight

Things change quickly in the NFL and it’s up to oddsmakers to stay ahead of the curve on a week-by-week basis.

It’s a catch-22: bettors have more game action to evaluate teams in their day-to-day handicapping, but so too do oddsmakers, which means you’re going to see sharper lines as we move throughout the season.

Matt Schaub.A couple of teams that came into the year as relative afterthoughts are already showing up on oddsmakers’ radars – the Chicago Bears, the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins and even the Houston Texans to a point.

“When you look at pointspreads for the above, the Bears, Dolphins and Texans will get more respect from the bookmakers and betting public than the Chiefs and Bucs,” says Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Manager at Tropicana Las Vegas. “It will take a few more wins or a major upset to change the public’s perception so early in the year on the other two teams.”

“The Texans appear better than the books thought entering the season,” adds Sportsinteraction.com Oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “Their come-from-behind win over Washington was even more impressive than their dismantling of the Colts in Week 1. You can be sure the Texans will be getting more respect from the oddsmakers going forward.”

The betting public is already having its say on a couple of big matchups in Week 3, especially with huge divisional games coming this week with the Packers visiting the Bears on Monday Night Football and the 2-0 Miami Dolphins up against the New York Jets.

“Miami did open up the favorite -2.5 against the Jets and the early action has been on the Jets as the current line is down to -1.5.” says Esposito. “In the other primetime matchup the Pack opened up -3.5 over the Bears and the public quickly jumped on the Bears plus the points and the game is down to Packers -3.”
As of now, the betting public isn’t making too much about some of the bigger news out of the NFL on Monday.

New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis has been ruled out of Sunday’s game, but Esposito doesn’t expect that line to move much, even though Revis can control an entire side of the field when healthy. He says the same is true about Carolina’s quarterback switch as the club will go with Jimmy Clausen under center instead of Matt Moore when they square off against the Cincinnati Bengals.

“There hasn’t been any movement in the Panthers game,” says Esposito. “The way Moore looked it’s not viewed as a big drop off. I suspect we will see some Cincy action later in the week.”

The Bengals currently sit as 3-point road chalk against the Panthers.

Other lines to keep an eye on over the next few days include the Colts-Broncos (+6) and Bills-Pats (-13).

“I think we can expect some movement in the Colts at Broncos game after Indy’s great performance against the Giants,” says Sindall. “The Pats line could also be on the move because the Bills are terrible and people will be fading them all year.”

Speaking of fading teams early in the year, don’t expect to get any bargains on the 0-2 Minnesota Vikings anytime soon. Well, as long as they can get past the Detroit Lions as 10.5-point favorites on Sunday.

“The Vikings have been that public team for the past two seasons, so I don’t think the public will hit the panic button yet, but if they don’t turn it around quickly that may change in a hurry,” says Esposito. “They do play the Lions this week and are the second largest favorite on the board. If they lose here you can throw everything out I said.”

Even though it is still very early, some teams are surprising the books and could have value as sleeper clubs moving forward, including the Kansas City Chiefs (vs. San Fran) and, possibly to a lesser extent, the Washington Redskins (-3.5 at St. Louis).

Matt Cassel.
“I guess when you look at a real sleeper it would have to be the Chiefs,” says Esposito. “The reason I say that is they are in a division with only one other team considered a legitimate playoff team and they have already beaten them. It’s still early but they have a young, aggressive defense, a talented young RB in Jamaal Charles, a go-to WR in Dwayne Bowe and number of talented coaches to lead this young team. I know it’s only Year 2 but the New England connection [with Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis in as coordinators and Matt Cassel at quarterback] is apparent.”

Sindall wouldn’t go that far in picking a sleeper, but did take a Washington club that has gone through a ton of changes over the last little while.

“I kind of like the Redskins as a sleeper even with all the Albert Haynesworth drama,” he said. “Two of the things that you can change to have the biggest and most immediate impact on a team is the coach and the quarterback and Washington made improvements in both positions.”