The last 11 Super Bowl losers
have gone 0-11 ATS and 2-9 SU in openers the following season. The trend spans from the 2000 Titans to the 2010 Colts. You have to go back to the 1999 Falcons to find a runner-up that won and covered.
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens have had an entire offseason to stew on not one, but two excruciating losses to Pittsburgh. In a 13-10 road win on Dec. 5, the Steelers wrested control of the AFC North. That game turned on Troy Polamalu’s blind-side hit on Joe Flacco. In the playoffs, Pittsburgh escaped 31-24 thanks to Ray Rice’s first fumble in 331 touches and Big Ben’s virtual Hail Mary to Antonio Brown.
The Ravens won the first meeting last season, 17-14 in Pittsburgh, before Roethlisberger returned from suspension.
Baltimore addressed its major weakness in the draft, taking corner Jimmy Smith in the first round. He’ll help curtail Pittsburgh speedster Mike Wallace.
The Ravens have dealt with fewer offseason distractions. They get to play at home before a frenzied crowd that’s waited eight months for revenge.
“What better way to start the season off than against our archrival?” coach John Harbaugh said.
Week 1: Oakland Raiders (+1.5) at Denver Broncos
The Raiders have won three straight against the Broncos, covering by a combined 73 points.
New Denver coach John Fox will improve the defense. Heck, it can’t get any worse. The Broncos added Von Miller in the draft to start at strong side linebacker, and rookie safety Rahim Moore and linebacker Nate Irving also will play plenty. But this unit needs a massive infusion of talent.
Fox is switching to a 4-3, an adjustment that will take time.
The Raiders are built to win now. Oakland is coming off its first non-losing season since the 2002 Super Bowl run. Under Hue Jackson, the offensive coordinator promoted to head coach, the Raiders finished sixth in scoring (25.6 ppg) last season.
Darren McFadden owned Denver last year, gashing the Broncos for 284 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
Not wanting the lockout to stall their momentum, many Raiders gathered to work out together, and not just for 7-on-7 drills. Jackson wasn’t there, but he likes the way 2011 is shaping up.
“We're not expecting to win two years from now, three years from now,” he said. “We expect to win now."
Week 2: Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Washington Redskins
The Cardinals aren’t starting the season with John Skelton under center. Bank on it.
When they didn’t draft a quarterback, it signaled they will go all out to land one via trade or free agency as soon as the lockout ends.
Most expect Arizona to deal for the Eagles QB Kevin Kolb. If they can’t meet Philly’s demands, the Cardinals also could pursue Kyle Orton, Donovan McNabb or Carson Palmer, if the Bengals relent and agree to trade him.
Larry Fitzgerald is entering his contract year. The franchise knows that another season of embarrassing QB play is not the way to keep him.
Washington, meanwhile, is talking up perhaps the most uninspiring QB battle ever: John Beck vs. Rex Grossman.
The Skins lost seven of their last nine games in 2010. They shouldn’t be laying seven points to anyone.
Week 3: Detroit Lions (+2) at Minnesota Vikings
There’s a good chance the Lions will be favored when this game rolls around.
Bettors should love Detroit here even if the Vikings sign McNabb, as has been rumored. Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Co. will be in the backfield all day against Minnesota’s substandard line.
Detroit covered its last five games in 2010 and if Matthew Stafford stays healthy, this offense should be unstoppable. Rookie RB Mikel Leshoure “looks like he’s a beast,” teammate Derrick Williams said recently. The bulldozer from Illinois joins an attack that features Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew and rookie wideout Titus Young.
The Vikings say they are prepared to start quarterback Christian Ponder, the 12th overall pick, if necessary. They’ll lean on Adrian Peterson and play conservatively.
Still, it wasn’t a good sign that Minnesota’s top receivers, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe and free agent Sidney Rice, all skipped workouts Ponder organized in Florida last month.
Week 3: Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Carolina likely will be starting No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton or the woeful Jimmy Clausen, who ranked 31st in passer rating last year (58.4).
The Panthers are breaking in a new head coach in Ron Rivera and with hard-line owner Jerry Richardson unlikely to spend much in free agency, Carolina is staring at a long rebuilding process.
Jacksonville faded to an 8-8 finish last season. But don’t forget the Jaguars controlled the AFC South with three games left.
Mike Thomas is developing into a No. 1 receiver, Eugene Monroe is emerging as a Top-5 left tackle, and Marcedes Lewis is coming off a Pro Bowl appearance. Jacksonville is overhauling its defense after giving up a franchise-record 419 points.
Coach Jack Del Rio, 66-65 in eight years, has been given an ultimatum by owner Wayne Weaver: Make the playoffs or you’re gone.
With a schedule that includes Indianapolis twice, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, the New York Jets and Atlanta, the Jaguars can’t afford to slip up in Charlotte. They won’t.
