NFL Notes week 3
San Francisco at Kansas City (+3)
Why 49ers cover: Kansas City has not won consecutive home games since the 2006-07 season. So far, the Niners have one of the league's best defenses while the Chiefs have one of the league's worst offenses.
Why Chiefs cover: San Francisco hasn't won in three trips to Arrowhead Stadium since 1982. The 49ers have committed six turnovers in the first two games.
Total (36.5): This total is low for two teams that have multiple weapons on offense.
Cincinnati at Carolina (+3)
Why Bengals cover: Rookie Jimmy Clausen will replace ineffective Matt Moore at quarterback for Carolina. Cincinnati is holding opposing pivots to a 67.8 quarterback rating.
Why Panthers cover: Carson Palmer's lack of arm strength has him averaging only six yards per completion. The Bengals will have to run the ball to win and Carolina is limiting opponents to three yards per carry.
Total (38.5): These teams have combined for five touchdowns in four games. Enough said.
Cleveland at Baltimore (-10.5)
Why Browns cover: Joe Flacco has been terrible to start the season committing six turnovers in two games, including five interceptions.
Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Baltimore.
Total (37.5): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.
Detroit at Minnesota (-10.5)
Why Lions cover: Brett Favre has only completed 58 percent of his passes while being picked off four times in his first two games. With Percy Harvin banged up and suffering from migraines again, Minnesota's aerial attack appears to be their biggest weakness.
Why Vikings cover: Lions are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota.
Total (41.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Tennessee at N.Y. Giants (-3)
Why Titans cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Chris Johnson is a monster on the road averaging 98.7 rushing yards per game for his career.
Why Giants cover: Vince Young was pulled last week after struggling with turnovers for the second straight game and the Giants have a knack for pressuring the quarterback.
Total (43): This should be a clock control game with the running backs taking center stage.
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+1)
Why Steelers cover: The Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball so far this season. Pittsburgh has only allowed 52 yards per game on the ground and held Chris Johnson to just 34 yards last week. Tampa Bay will be without starting free safety Tanard Jackson who has been suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
Why Buccaneers cover: Pittsburgh has problems at quarterback. Dennis Dixon is out and Byron Leftwich is coming off a knee injury. Charlie Batch will get the nod Sunday.
Total (33.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Atlanta at New Orleans (-4.5)
Why Falcons cover: New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush, who suffered a fractured leg on Monday night. The Saints had trouble with Frank Gore Monday and will have to face Atlanta's fourth-ranked rush offense.
Why Saints cover: Drew Brees owns Atlanta. Since coming over from San Diego he has completed 74 percent of his passes without committing a turnover while going 7-1 straight up against the Falcons.
Total (49.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Buffalo at New England (-13.5)
Why Bills cover: The Patriots will be without their most targeted running back, Kevin Faulk, who is a key contributor out of the backfield and valuable blocker on passing downs.
Why Patriots cover: Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings. After only two weeks Buffalo will replace Trent Edwards at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick who tallied a pitiful 69.7 passer rating last season.
Total (42.5): Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings and 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New England.
Dallas at Houston (-3)
Why Cowboys cover: Matt Schaub's blindside will be exposed with left tackle Duane Brown suspended for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing substances. DeMarcus Ware could disrupt the passing attack more than usual.
Why Texans cover: Houston has two wins. One of them came via a huge rushing game from Arian Foster, the other from Schaub's 497 passing yard performance last week. The Texans are hard to defend and can beat you in multiple ways.
Total (47): This game has big numbers written all over it.
Washington at St. Louis (+3.5)
Why Redskins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Why Rams cover: Washington is having trouble running the ball while the Rams' Steven Jackson has totaled 482 yards in his last three games against them.
Total (38): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Philadelphia at Jacksonville (+3)
Why Eagles cover: In under two games of action, Michael Vick has accounted for almost 600 yards and three touchdowns. Andy Reid will stick with him at quarterback even though Kevin Kolb has been medically cleared to play.
Why Jaguars cover: They're 12-2 straight up at home against NFC opponents under Jack Del Rio. David Garrard traditionally plays much better in Jacksonville.
Total (44.5): Both teams' defenses rank in the bottom quarter of the league.
San Diego at Seattle (+5.5)
Why Chargers cover: Matt Hasselbeck is averaging just over 200 passing yards per game and has thrown four interceptions during that span. He may not have much left in the tank.
Why Seahawks cover: Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Running back Ryan Matthews has a high ankle sprain for San Diego.
Total (44): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.
Indianapolis at Denver (+6)
Why Colts cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Peyton Manning could pick apart a Denver secondary that could be without cornerbacks Champ Bailey (heel) and Andre Goodman (thigh).
Why Broncos cover: The addition of Tim Tebow may have sparked quarterback Kyle Orton, who is averaging over 300 yards passing per game this season with a 103.9 passer rating.
Total (48): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
Oakland at Arizona (-4)
Why Raiders cover: They are 3-0 straight up all-time on the road against the Cardinals. They are third in the league averaging 154.5 rushing yards per game and Arizona is allowing the third most rushing yards in the NFL.
Why Cardinals cover: Bruce Gradkowski will quarterback the Raiders replacing Jason Campbell who is being benched. Tim Hightower has played well as the feature running back with Beanie Wells out.
Total (39.5): Derek Anderson and Gradkowski are the quarterbacks. If anyone scores, it will be on the ground.
N.Y. Jets at Miami (-1)
Why Jets cover: Jets are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Miami. Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Dolphins cover: Darrelle Revis is out with a hamstring injury so Brandon Marshall won't have to matchup against the shutdown cornerback. Center Nick Mangold is also questionable for New York with a shoulder injury.
Total (34.5): Both offenses have been inconsistent and both defenses are good. Looks like a low-scoring affair.
Green Bay at Chicago (+3)
Why Packers cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Why Bears cover: Mike Martz has done wonders for Jay Cutler and Chicago's offense is third in the NFL because of it. They're defense has been fantastic as well, giving the team a chance to win on both sides of the ball.
Total (46): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
