In the nine-year history of the NFC South,
no team has won the division two straight years.
Oddsmakers give the Falcons a good shot to be the first, installing the 2010 champs as +120 co-favorites with New Orleans.
Both contenders loaded up in the offseason. Atlanta, seeking more explosiveness, gave up five draft picks to grab wideout Julio Jones at No. 6 overall, then landed speedy defensive end Ray Edwards to pair with John Abraham.
New Orleans, wanting to get tougher at the point of attack, drafted Heisman Trophy-winning runner Mark Ingram and signed free agent nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin.
Tampa Bay took a different approach. The Bucs focused on re-signing their own players, like mauling guard Davin Joseph, and on continuing to build through the draft.
“The grass isn’t greener,” GM Mark Dominik told the St. Petersburg Times.
Tampa is +400 to win the division after going 10-6 against an easy schedule. The Bucs’ surprising season made the NFC South the only division with three double-digit winners.
Carolina, under rookie coach Ron Rivera, remains at least a year away from joining the title discussion.
Team breakdown, in order of favorites. Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com.
ATLANTA FALCONS
2010 record: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-5-2 O/U
2011 odds: Super Bowl +1200, Conference +600, Division +120, Win total 10.5
Who’s in: WR Julio Jones (rookie), DE Ray Edwards, RB Jacquizz Rogers (rookie)
Who’s out: WR Michael Jenkins, G Harvey Dahl, RB Jerious Norwood
Team strengths: The O-Line should be stellar again after Atlanta locked up RT Tyson Clabo and LG Justin Blalock; the only question is how well RG Mike Johnson can replace departed free-agent Harvey Dahl. Matt Ryan has to prove he can win in the playoffs (0-2). He has a solid running game and new toys in Jones and Rodgers, a dangerous receiver out of the backfield.
Team weaknesses: There aren’t many. But the young defenders have lots of room for improvement. S William Moore missed 13 tackles last year, LB Sean Weatherspoon got burned in coverage and DT Corey Peters didn’t hold up against the run.
Thing to remember: Under coach Mike Smith, Atlanta is 20-10 ATS as a favorite, including 7-2 ATS as a road favorite. The Falcons are 21-11 ATS outside the division, 9-3 ATS against the AFC.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
2010 record: 11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U
2011 odds: Super Bowl +1200, Conference +600, Division +120, Win total 10
Who’s in: C Olin Kreutz, RB Mark Ingram (rookie), NT Aubrayo Franklin, RB Darren Sproles, DE Cameron Jordan (rookie)
Who’s out: RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey
Team strengths: Drew Brees completed 68 percent of his throws last year despite a lackluster ground game. With Ingram in tow and the O-line in place – Kreutz replaces Jonathan Goodwin at center – this offense will be balanced and frightening. TE Jimmy Graham (6-6, 260) emerged as a freakish force late last year, joining Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem as reliable targets.
Team weaknesses: DE Will Smith, one of two defensive linemen remaining from the Super Bowl roster, likely won’t be available until Week 5 due to a looming suspension. The defense allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season but bulked up with the addition of vets Franklin and Shaun Rogers. S Roman Harper got torched repeatedly in the playoff loss at Seattle.
Things to remember: New Orleans is 9-15 ATS in division games since 2007, but 11-6 ATS against the AFC. The last five Saints-Falcons games have been decided by an average of 4.2 points, including last year when each team won by a field goal on the road.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2010 record: 10-6 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U
2011 odds: Super Bowl +3000, Conference + 1500, Division +400, Win total 8.5
Who’s in: DE Da’Quan Bowers (rookie), P Michael Koenen, DE Adrian Clayborn (rookie)
Who’s out: RB Cadillac Williams, LB Barrett Ruud
Team strengths: The Bucs are dripping with young talent. QB Josh Freeman has a knack for fourth-quarter comebacks, and undrafted RB LeGarrette Blount was a steal who could pay dividends for five years. In 2010, he led all running backs with 50 broken tackles despite playing a paltry 355 snaps. Tampa is building an elite D-Line featuring high draft picks Gerald McCoy, Clayborn and Bowers.
Team weaknesses: Tampa was a horrible pass-blocking team last season, which Freeman covered up by scrambling. In the secondary, Ronde Barber just turned 36 and shutdown corner Aqib Talib might be shut down by the league, owing to his arrest for felony assault with a deadly weapon.
Thing to remember: The Bucs were an incredible 7-0-1 ATS on the road, including 7-0 as a road dog, last year. Over the last three seasons, Tampa has a 14-21-1 O/U mark in conference games and a 6-12 O/U mark in the division.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
2010 record: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS, 6-8-2 O/U
2011 odds: Super Bowl +4000, Conference +2000, Division +500, Win total 6.5
Who’s in: QB Cam Newton (rookie), TE Greg Olsen, QB Derek Anderson, LB Omar Gaither
Who’s out: K John Kasay, CB Richard Marshall
Team strengths: Top-notch LT Jordan Gross anchors a line that will thrive if RT Jeff Otah and LG Travelle Wharton stay healthy. They’ll pave the way for the NFL’s best RB trio in DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. Of course, the threat of a passing game would help.
Team weaknesses: Anderson, if he starts over Newton, is a bad decision waiting to happen. The run defense and pass coverage also are suspect. Carolina suffered a blow when NT Ron Edwards tore his triceps; the unit needed him after allowing 20 rushing TDs, second-most in the NFL. While DE Charles Johnson (11.5 sacks) and LB Jon Beason are premier players, the safeties are shaky and CB Chris Gamble is coming off a subpar season.
Thing to remember: Carolina hasn’t beaten an AFC team since Dec. 14, 2008 (30-10 win over Denver). The Panthers went 1-5 ATS against the division last season, but were 9-3 ATS the two years before that.