With teams kicking from

the 35 instead of the 30-yard line, touchbacks are on the rise.

“When they get done looking at this year they’re going to say, ‘Boy, scoring dropped. Wow. I wonder what caused that,’” Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio said on ESPN Radio. “Well, I think kickoffs are going to play a part in that.”

The rule change presents an early-season opportunity for bettors.

Las Vegas handicapper David Malinsky told Covers.com that the Week 1 totals he’s seen, both in Vegas and offshore, are about one point lower than the matchups would have dictated. He attributes the drop off to the kickoff change and a feeling that the lockout hurt offenses more.

“Week 1 totals aren’t that far off where we thought they might be, so we’re going to get some good opportunities,” Malinsky said. “It won’t take long for the oddsmakers to catch up. When we get to the third week, the average total will be the average points scored for the first two weeks.

“Our focus is going to be under first,” he continued. “Sometimes you’d think they’d over adjust and create an ‘over’ opportunity, but I don’t think they’ll go out of their way yet. They’re going to be a little tied to their past models for totals, so in general we want to look under first.”

Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club in Las Vegas, said his oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see approach.

“We’ll go by how we see the scores going and how they bet ‘em. It may take a couple weeks, but we’ll find a happy medium,” Korner told Covers.com. “It’s going to be very hard to quantify at this point.”

MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told Covers.com that “we don’t want to be the highest total out there” the first couple weeks.

“Totals are always a little bit lower at the start of the season anyway,” he said. “I think it’s going to make a big difference over the season. We don’t want to overreact and jump them too low. We’ll have to see what happens, but we’ll keep them on the low side the first week or two.”
Week 1 of the preseason saw 32 percent of kickoffs end in touchbacks. In the 2010 regular season, 16.4 percent went for touchbacks.

Better field position equals a better chance to score. Last year, average starting field position was just past the 27. That figures to go backwards this season.

“Several prongs come into play,” Malinsky said. “You take away the ability of the returner to set up field position and points, you take away the turnover on the kickoff to set up quick points, and when teams start at the 20-yard line they don’t score very often.”

The Bears are outraged at the rule because it diminishes the impact of Devin Hester, who averaged 35.6 yards on kick returns last year and has four career kick return TDs.

Bears special teams coordinator Dave Toub speculated that we could see touchbacks almost half the time, but Falcons president Rich McKay noted the percentage will decline throughout the season as the weather worsens.

The rule will hurt certain teams more than others, but it’s hard to predict how many fewer opportunities a player like Hester or Cleveland’s Josh Cribbs will get.

Touchbacks already had risen the past six years; kickers continue to get stronger. Last year there were 416 touchbacks, double the 2004 total.
Players returned 23 kickoffs for touchdowns last year, second-most in history behind 2007 (25 return TDs).

Kickoffs also were from the 35 from 1974-93. In 1993, touchbacks occurred 27 percent of the time and only four kickoffs were returned for scores.
All of which puts oddsmakers in a quandary.

“The oddsmakers are caught in this position of, ‘Do they lead the market or do they allow the market to dictate?’” Malinsky said.