'Overs' cashing in early preseason

The ’over’ has cashed in 11 of the Texans’ last 14 preseason games.

One trend has surfaced through the first two weeks of NFL preseason football and that’s been ‘over’ the total.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 21 of the first 32 games for 65 percent.

Is there any reason for this domination of ‘overs’? Not really except offenses may be ahead of defenses and the low ‘over/under’ numbers put out by the NFL oddsmakers.

There wasn’t a total higher than 35 during the first week. Nearly all totals were either 33 or 34. The low-scoring Hall of Fame Game, won by Dallas 16-7 over Cincinnati, may have reinforced the notion of low preseason totals and made the oddsmaker think twice about putting up a total higher than 35.

But the ‘over’ has gone 21-10 since that dreadful Hall of Fame matchup. Teams are putting more emphasis now on game-planning for Week 3 so there could be better defense as the starters play longer. A correction may be in order since totals have a history of falling in the 50/50 range.

Coaches are more willing to leave defensive starters in longer in order to build cohesion than they are to risk their starting quarterback for an extended period.

Sides haven’t been as lopsided as totals, although favorites were 18-14 (56 percent) ATS. Bookmakers have been reluctant to make a favorite lay more than a field goal.

The largest pointspread at Bodog.com, for instance, during Week 2 was Pittsburgh minus four against the New York Giants after it was announced Ben Roethlisberger would play and Eli Manning would not. The Steelers got steamed up to 6-point favorites and won, 24-17.

There’s a certain randomness factor in any football game, but preseason can magnify this. One trend holding up, though, is how bad the Indianapolis Colts play during preseason.

The Colts are 0-2 straight-up and ATS this year having lost 37-17 at home to San Francisco as 3 ½-point underdogs and falling 34-21 to Buffalo in Toronto as 3 ½-point underdogs.

The Colts are 4-20 straight-up the past six seasons in preseason, 6-17-1 ATS.

Some ‘sharps’ tried to buck the Colts’ trend by backing Indianapolis on the money line to win the first-quarter only against the Bills figuring Peyton Manning would put up points before sitting down.

Manning helped the Colts put up 14 points. However, the Bills scored 21 points in the first quarter to get the money on that ‘prop.’

Philadelphia hasn’t been very good either against the spread under Andy Reid in preseason, failing to cover in 11 of its last 14.

Miami has been the flip side of the Eagles and Colts going 9-1 in its last 10 preseason games, 7-2-1 ATS. It’s not a fluke since Bill Parcells, the Dolphins’ vice-president of football operations, has put emphasis on the preseason.

Seattle lost to Green Bay, 27-24, in its last game as 2 ½-point home favorites. Prior to that, though, the Seahawks were 11-2 straight-up and ATS in preseason.

One trend holding up so far is the Houston Texans ‘over’ with Gary Kubiak at the helm. The Texans have gone ‘over’ in both of their games this year. The ‘over’ is 11-3 in the Texans’ past 14 preseason matchups.

Green Bay is another strong preseason ‘over’ team under Mike McCarthy. The ‘over’ has cashed in nine of the Packers’ last 10 matchups, including their past two.

Baltimore is the opposite having been a huge ‘under’ team during preseason the past six seasons. The ‘under’ is 17-5 during this span in Ravens’ games.

Pittsburgh is another strong preseason ‘under’ club. The Steelers went ‘over’ in their last preseason matchup against the Giants, but the ‘under’ is still 15-3-1 in their last 19 preseason contests.