NFL Trends Week 4

by Sportsbook Breakers
Jets at Bills – The Bills are 9-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) The Bills are 8-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since September 30, 2007 after a straight up loss on the road as a TD+ dog. The Jets are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since 1994 when they played the Dolphins last week, in the first four weeks of the year. The Jets are 0-7 OU (-8.3 ppg) since December 31, 2006 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The Jets are 0-6 OU (-14.0 ppg) since October 01, 1989 as a favorite the week before playing on Monday Night. The Bills are 0-6 OU (-17.6 ppg) since December 17, 2006 after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.

Bengals at Browns – The Bengals are 0-11 ATS (-17.0 ppg) since September 22, 1991 when its week four and they were away last week. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-13.7 ppg) since October 28, 1990 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road. The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since October 15, 2006 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since November 18, 2001 the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers. The Bengals are 0-8-1 OU (-9.1 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Bengals are 0-8-1 OU (-9.1 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.

Cardinals at Chargers – The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when they committing three or more turnovers at home last game. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since November 06, 1994 on the road the week after a straight up win at home in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Chargers are 0-8-1 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since September 27, 1998 at home the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (7.8 ppg) since November 21, 2004 as a dog the week after in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Cardinals are 8-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as a road dog when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date.

Redskins at Eagles – The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since January 07, 2006 as a dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Eagles are 0-9 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since 2005 at home when they never had to defend a first-and-goal last week.The Redskins are 0-8 OU (-8.0 ppg) since October 13, 1997 as a dog the week after on the road in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Redskins are 0-6-1 OU (-8.0 ppg) since September 24, 2000 on the road when one game under 500 after a straight up loss.

Fortyniners at Falcons – The 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 14, 2006 when they were a favorite last game and had two or fewer sacks. The 49ers are 9-0 ATS (19.1 ppg) since September 24, 1989 on the road the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road as a favorite. The 49ers are 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 08, 2002 on the road the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Falcons are 0-9-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since September 26, 2004 when they won last week and the total was 44.5 or higher. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since November 22, 1998 at home when they won and covered their last two games. The Falcons are 0-6-1 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since November 22, 1998 as a 7+ favorite off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Falcons are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since November 21, 1993 the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Falcons are 0-7 OU (-16.1 ppg) since October 20, 1991 as a favorite the week after a win in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing.

Bears at Giants – The Bears are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since December 01, 2002 as a dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Giants are 10-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since January 13, 2008 when they controlled the ball more than their opponent last game and had zero or one sacks. The Giants are 0-7 ATS (-16.1 ppg) since December 08, 1991 as a home favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a favorite. The Giants are 7-0-1 OU (11.9 ppg) since December 05, 1999 when one game under 500 after playing at home. The Giants are 6-0-2 OU (8.2 ppg) since January 05, 2003 when they get a team off a Monday Night game.

Colts at Jaguars – The Colts are 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since November 09, 2008 on the road after a straight up win as a favorite. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS (-13.5 ppg) since November 23, 2008 after playing at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Colts are 0-10-1 OU (-8.5 ppg) since October 15, 1989 on the road when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 8-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since September 24, 1995 as a home dog after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks.

Lions at Packers – The Lions are 0-13-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since October 31, 2004 when they were down at half last week and allowed less points than expected. The Packers are 8-0-1 ATS (12.5 ppg) since November 22, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The Packers are 7-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since September 24, 2006 versus the Lions. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since December 31, 2006 when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Packers are 10-0 OU (14.7 ppg) since October 08, 1989 when facing a team with no wins after week 3.

Texans at Raiders – The Texans are 9-0-1 ATS (6.2 ppg) since November 11, 2002 when they punted four or fewer times last week game. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-4.7 ppg) since October 24, 2004 at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Raiders are 6-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since October 18, 2009 as a dog after a straight up loss. The Raiders are 0-8 OU (-10.4 ppg) since November 21, 2004 at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-6 OU (-7.5 ppg) since September 13, 1998 at home the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties.

Seahawks at Rams – The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a straight up win at home. The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Rams are 8-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 09, 2001 at home when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-10-1 OU (-4.3 ppg) since November 13, 2005 when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 0-7 OU (-12.3 ppg) since December 27, 2004 within 3 of pick when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

Panthers at Saints – The Panthers are 10-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) since Thanksgiving 2002 after a home loss in which they had at least two minutes fewer of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Saints are 0-11 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since 1989 as a 6+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Saints are 0-10 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since September 11, 1994 as a home favorite when facing a team with no wins after week 1. The Saints are 0-8 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since October 24, 1993 as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date. The Panthers are 0-7 OU (-10.4 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a 7+ dog after a straight up loss as a dog. The Saints are 7-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since December 20, 1993 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Saints are 7-0 OU (5.6 ppg) since September 22, 1996 at home when facing a team with no wins after week 3.

Ravens at Steelers – The Ravens are 0-9 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since October 4, 2009 when they controlled the ball more than their opponent did last game. The Steelers are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since November 20, 2005 when they scored at least 10 points more than expected when they committed less than five penalties. The Steelers are 0-11 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since September 30, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Ravens are 7-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since October 06, 2002 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Steelers are 10-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since September 07, 2003 at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.

Broncos at Titans – The Broncos are 8-0-2 ATS (8.8 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since October 16, 1995 as a dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. . The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since September 10, 2006 at home when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. The Broncos are 8-0-1 OU (12.3 ppg) since December 10, 2006 on the road after a straight up loss at home. The Titans are 0-7 OU (-9.8 ppg) since December 14, 2008 when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date.

Patriots at Dolphins – The Patriots are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.2 ppg) when they controlled the ball longer than their opponent last game as a double-digit favorite. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since January 02, 1994 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since October 30, 2006 on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Patriots are 0-7 OU (-7.2 ppg) since January 14, 2007 on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30.