The Border War between

the New England Patriots and New York Jets continues Sunday afternoon with both teams having major question marks. CBS will broadcast at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots opened as 10-point home favorites in this always-entertaining battle, but it’s now nine at most shops listed at Don Best. The NFL betting total is also down a point from 50 to 49.
The Jets (2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) haven’t started as expected and have only played one solid game, 32-3 at home against Jacksonville in Week 2. The last two weeks were their first two road contests, losses at Oakland (34-24) and Baltimore (34-17), going 0-2 ATS.
Quarterback Mark Sanchez has been the poster child for the recent troubles. He lost three fumbles last week, two run back all the way, and another interception for a touchdown. His performance was so bad that receiver Santonio Holmes called him out in the media, usually a big no-no.
The third-year signal caller from USC has performed well in the playoffs (94.3 quarterback rating), but is average-at-best in the regular season (71 career rating). His 36.8 pass attempts are up this year as head coach Rex Ryan tried to enhance the passing game with Holmes, Plaxico Burress and tight end Dustin Keller.
Ryan has vowed to revert to the ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack that was so successful last season (148.4 YPG, ranked fourth). The problem is that new featured back Shonn Greene is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry and the 71 YPG total ranks 30th. The same offensive line that can’t protect Sanchez is also not run blocking well.
The Jets are desperate to get center Nick Mangold (ankle) back this week. He missed the last two games and the Ravens overran rookie Colin Baxter, forcing Ryan to unsuccessfully shuffle things around in-game. Mangold is probable and always does a good job against Patriots behemoth Vince Wilfork.
The Patriots (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) last saw the Jets in the playoffs, getting shocked 28-21 as 9 ½-point home favorites, a similar spread to this game. The Jets were able to run the ball (120 yards) and Sanchez threw for 194 yards, three TDs and no picks. Getting an early interception from Tom Brady really swung the momentum.
New England isn’t thinking about revenge. This is all about trying to win the AFC East and getting home-field advantage again in the playoffs. Hurting the Jets eventual playoff hopes is another added bonus. The other Jets visit to Foxboro last year was a 45-3 blowout win by the Pats.
Coach Bill Belichick finally found some offensive balance at Oakland (31-19 win) last week, running for 183 yards and throwing for 226. The averages the first three games were 103 running and 438 passing. Rookie running back Stevan Ridley (97 yards last week) looks like a find and will continue to get more carries.
The 50 combined points scored last week went ‘under’ the 55-point total. The ‘over’ was easily 3-0 in New England first three games and 19-3 in the previous 22 overall.
Keeping the offense balanced is crucial. Brady threw four picks in the Week 3 loss (34-31) at Buffalo after leading 21-0. Some of that was bad luck, but the Jets pass defense knows how to take away the middle of the field. Look for Darrelle Revis to cover the NFL’s leading receiver Wes Welker (616 yards) and make Brady throw outside to less reliable guys like Chad Ochocinco.
The Patriots have only played one home game this year, 35-21 over San Diego as 6 ½-point favorites in Week 2. They’ve won 18-straight regular season home games (11-6-1 ATS). However, home playoffs losses to Baltimore in 2009 and the Jets last year temper that statistic.
New England has major issues with pass defense (368.8 YPG, ranked last), with an average run defense (108.8 YPG, ranked 18th). Even the mediocre Jason Campbell threw for 344 yards last week, although 99 were on the meaningless final drive. Sanchez needs to complete short passes early for his confidence, but also needs a running game for play-action to be effective.
The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Jets road games this year and 17-4-1 in the last 22 away. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the teams in New England.
New England is missing key linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) and defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth (back), and several others are questionable. The team has good depth and always seems to have someone to step up.
Weather is expected to be beautiful for this time of year, sunny and in the 70s.