There was once a time when there

was about as much a mystery between eventual results of Denver (3-4 straight up and against the spread) and Kansas City (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) matchups as there was when John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins hoopsters took the court.
Confounding scorelines over the past few weeks, however, make it anyone’s guess what might transpire when the Broncos and Chiefs tee it up Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. The Don Best odds shows Kansas City posted as a 3-point favorite at most every Las Vegas property as of midweek, with the total solid at 41½.
Kickoff time off exit 9 of I-70 on Sunday is 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. Bill Macatee, departing from his normal golf coverage duties, and Steve Tasker will describe the action.
Indeed, Denver was the Chiefs’ personal punching bag throughout the ’60s, dating to Kansas City’s days when campaigning as the Dallas Texans between 1960-62. In 20 meetings during the days of the AFL, the Chiefs/Texans beat the Broncos 19 times. Scorelines were often humiliating for Denver, beaten savagely by counts such as 59-7, 52-21, 37-10, 56-10, 52-9, 34-2 and 30-7. Only once in the ’60s did the Broncos beat Dallas/KC, that coming in the 1964 season at old Bears Stadium (prior to the days it was known as Mile High Stadium) by a 33-27 tally.
Denver finally announced a change in the dynamics of the rivalry in the first post-merger meeting on October 4, 1970, when a ferocious defensive effort by Lou Saban’s squad led the Broncos to a 26-13 win over the defending Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs gained just 121 yards that afternoon when QB Len Dawson was sacked seven times by a voracious Denver pass rush led by DE Rich “Tombstone” Jackson. Still, the Broncos would have to wait until 1974 before notching their first road win in the series, when John Ralston’s team won at Arrowhead by a 17-14 count.
Which brings us to Sunday, and teams off disparate efforts last week. The nature of the NFL suggests a certain weekly back-and-forth that would seem to apply to this matchup a week after Denver shocked Oakland by a 38-24 count, and the Chiefs were ambushed by the winless Dolphins, 31-3. That mindset would favor a Kansas City bounce-back this week.
There is plenty of statistical precedent for such thought, not to mention empirical evidence supporting the Chiefs’ bounce-back theory. Consider the last regular-season meeting between the two a year ago at Arrowhead, won by the Chiefs 10-6. Although KC didn’t cover the spread, and the affair was an unsightly one, the defining matchup was Romeo Crennel’s KC defense confusing the Denver offense with its ever-changing coverages.
Now, with young Tim Tebow at QB for Denver, it would seem to be advantage Chiefs, as the ex-Gator has been easily rattled and taken from his comfort zone by disguised blitzes and coverages in his three starts this season.
But, as Lee Corso might say, “Not so fast, my friends.”
Recognizing Tebow’s limitations, and strengths, Broncos coach John Fox devised a different mode of attack last week against the Raiders. Utilizing Tebow’s ability as a powerful runner, Denver introduced a series of read options into its playbook at Oakland, and the result was that the Raiders were almost helpless to stop the Bronco infantry. A now-healthy Willis McGahee and Tebow combined for 280 rush yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries last week at the Coliseum, the first time the Broncos had a pair of 100-yard rushers in a game since Jon Keyworth and Otis Armstrong turned the trick in the aforementioned 1974 season, also at Oakland.
Love him or loathe him, Tebow, in a non-traditional way, is going about silencing his many critics. The Broncos are now 2-1 in his starts this season, and nearly rallied from a huge deficit against San Diego in the other game in which he made an extended appearance. Over two seasons, Tebow’s record as a starter is a respectable 3-3. Moreover, Denver has rallied from double-digit deficits in each of Tebow’s wins, suggesting a contagious effect the former Heisman winner can have on teammates.
Tebow has also tossed just one pick (though it was returned for a 100-yard TD by the Lions) and six TDs in his work this season.
What Denver does against an angry Kansas City offense is another matter, but again the matchups might not be too bad for the Broncos. The Chiefs prefer to set up their running game with the pass, but Denver has proven it can collapse a pocket, having registered 20 sacks. Texas A&M rookie LB Von Miller has been making his presence felt, and then some, his Usain Bolt-like explosion at the snap helping him record 6½ sacks this season.
Miller is fast becoming a defensive difference-maker, a force that opposing offenses must account for on every play.
Denver will also like its chances to slow down Matt Cassel and the Chiefs’ aerial assault. Although Cassel passed for 607 yards and five TDs against the Broncos in two games last season, most of that damage came in the first meeting when the Broncos were sitting on a huge lead and allowed Cassel to pile up stats in a futile come-from-behind effort in a game Denver won easily, 49-29. Cassel’s 433 passing yards that afternoon in the Mile High City game were among the most misleading game statistics of 2010, with almost all of the damage occurring long after the outcome was decided.
More telling are the numbers in the second matchup, the taut 10-6 Chiefs win at Arrowhead, when Cassel was mostly ineffective, thanks largely to vet Bronco CB Champ Bailey who shadowed Cassel’s favorite receiving target, Dwayne Bowe. After allowing Bowe to catch 13 mostly meaningless passes in the first meeting, Bailey got serious and held Bowe catchless in the rematch.
Note, too, that KC has not been much of a margin team this season, with only its win over mistake-prone Oakland considered easy. Denver, surprisingly just a game out of the AFC West lead at midseason, could make the division race even more interesting with a mild upset on Sunday at Arrowhead.