Mr. Rodgers goes to Washington

October 06, 2010

It doesn't get any easier for the Washington Redskins who are in for another tough game when they host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon.
Bookmaker.com has Green Bay as 2 ½-point road favorites with a total of 43 ½-points. Washington is plus 120 to win the game outright.
The Redskins are 2-2 both straight-up and against the spread after a 17-12 road win at Philadelphia as five-point ‘dogs. The 29-points scored went ‘under’ the 44-point total. The ‘over’ was 10-3 in Washington’s previous 13 games.
The win moved Washington into a three-way tie in the NFC East with Philly and the New York Giants. It was also great revenge for quarterback Donovan McNabb, who spent 11 seasons with the Eagles.
McNabb had very modest numbers last week (8-of-19, 125 yards), but was happy just to win. It was the only game this season where he’s attempted less than 32 passes.
The running game really stepped up last week with 169 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 per carry). Ryan Torain had 18 carries for 70 yards and he’ll carry the full load this week with Clinton Portis doubtful with a groin injury.
Green Bay’s run defense is allowing 5.2 yards per carry (31st in the NFL) and Washington would love to eat up clock. McNabb doesn’t have many receiving targets outside of receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley, so it’s hard to rely on the passing game.
The Redskins’ pass defense is ranked 31st at 305 YPG. They did catch a break when Michael Vick was hurt in the first quarter of last week. Kevin Kolb threw for 201 yards in relief, but was largely ineffective, not scoring a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter.
Washington is a home ‘dog for the third time in three NFL betting games (going 1-1 SU and ATS). It had a 13-7 win over Dallas (3 ½-point spread) and a 30-27 overtime loss to Houston (2 ½-point spread). Houston came back from a 27-10 deficit.
Washington is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games overall.
Green Bay (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) had a tough time against winless Detroit last week, 28-26 victory as 14 ½-point home favorites. The Packers were fortunate to win after allowing 331 passing yards to Shaun Hill and losing the time of possession 37:37-22:23.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks ninth in the NFL in quarterback rating (96.3) and his 68.9 completion percentage is fourth. He does have five picks, including two last week, and he could be getting frustrated with defenses taking away his deep routes and forcing throws underneath.
Rodgers also has to be unhappy about the running game. Ryan Grant was lost for the season in Week 1 and Brandon Jackson doesn’t look like a featured back (three yards per carry). The team could have acquired Rodgers’ college teammate, Marshawn Lynch from Buffalo, but he just went to Seattle.
The Packers are 1-1 SU and ATS on the road this year. They opened at Philly and had an impressive 27-20 win as three-point favorites. They lost 20-17 at Chicago on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, but much of the blame was on a record 18 penalties for 152 yards.
Green Bay went 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in regular season road games last year.
These NFL teams last met in 2007 with Green Bay winning 17-14 at home. They’ve only met six times since 1986 with the Pack going 5-0-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in those contests.
The Packers lost starting strong safety Morgan Burnett (knee) for the year last week. They’re very thin at the position. Starting linebacker Nick Barnett (wrist) is questionable and backup Brandon Chillar (shoulder) is doubtful.
Kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. (PT) on FOX. Weather looks very good with temperatures rising into the low 70s.