Bettors getting bitten by underdogs

Talk about your seasons of discontent. Just ask someone trying to pick winners this year in the NFL.

"You can see the look on the faces of the bettors. I feel bad for them," said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the numbers-crunchers who provide wagering odds to casino sports books.

What has sports bettors' heads spinning as the NFL season goes into its second quarter is the dominance of underdogs in 2010. So far, the dogs are 38-24, according to Covers.com, a website that provides statistical and analytical information on sports wagering. Slight differences in point spreads may have a few pushes in that total, but regardless of those slight variances, that's still about a 60 percent or better underdog advantage - which has bookmakers pleased because the public leans toward favorites.

So, what to do?

Well, Seba noted that bettors are likely to see point spreads tighten, perhaps helping the favorites. In fact, this week there are no double-digit favorites, suggesting that the adjustment already has begun. Only one game - Kansas City at Indianapolis - features a line bigger than a touchdown; the Colts are 8-point home favorites.

Interestingly, while the public has been pummeled, the so-called wise guys, or professional bettors, have managed to stay afloat by plunging on underdogs that look like blowout candidates - namely, Cleveland and Jacksonville last week. And both won outright, the Browns over Cincinnati and the Jaguars over Indianapolis.

The stunner among those two was Jacksonville, especially to Eagles fans who watched the Birds run over the Jaguars the previous week.

"The public remembers the last thing it saw," Seba said. "For instance, now that San Diego won big [41-10 over Arizona], the thinking will be that the Chargers have turned it around. And because Arizona looked terrible, they'll want to bet against them."

Sometimes, it's more advisable to simply look at the standings to see which teams have their backs against the wall, Seba pointed out.

That Chargers outcome is an example. San Diego was 1-2 heading into its game with the Cardinals and already trailing Kansas City in the AFC West; the Chiefs were 3-0 and on their bye week.

Two more instances of contenders rising to the occasion were the Cowboys and Vikings in Week 3.

Dallas was an underdog against the Texans in Houston and had a bye in Week 4. With a loss, the Cowboys risked imperiling their season, especially considering that they already had lost to NFC East rival Washington. The 'Boys came out spitting fire and beat Houston outright, obviously paying off their backers.

That same weekend, the Vikings were 0-2 in the standings and staring up at both Chicago and Green Bay, which were 2-0 in the NFC North. Minnesota took care of business, beating the Lions by 14 points and actually managing to cover a 131/2-point spread.

Seba noted that in the NFL, it's sometimes difficult to know what kind of effort a team is going to give.

"But when the game really means something in the standings, it may be no guarantee that they're going to play well, but you know that the effort is going to be there, especially with decent teams," he said.

Red flag in New Orleans. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is a terrific leader, and Sean Payton is obviously an extraordinary coach, but the early signs in the Big Easy are not good. Yes, New Orleans is 3-1 in the NFC South standings, but 1-3 or 0-3-1 against the spread (depending on which line you were using in Week 1). History instructs in no uncertain terms that to advance to the playoffs, a team has to perform respectably against the spread. Over the last three seasons, only two of 36 playoff teams finished below .500 against the spread. So the Saints' slow start against the line means one of two things: They're going to rally and reward those bettors who persist in believing in them, or their Super Bowl hangover is too much to overcome and they won't even make the playoffs.

Read more: http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20101007_The_Smart_Money___Bettors_getting_bitten_by_underdogs.html#ixzz11gDgGjLZ
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