Cote's Week 5 NFL selections

The breakout week continues to elude as my rough, rocky season lurches on. Had some nice picks last week -- upset wins by Rams and Ravens, plus Panthers and Redskins with points -- but finally blew an Upset of the Week pick after a 3-0 start (thanks, Bears) and misfired badly on Dolphins-Pats. So in an effort to change my luck I changed my method of operation this week. More research? Nah. I made my picks while not wearing pants.
• Last week overall: 8-6 (.571); last week vs. spread: 7-7 (.500).
• Season overall: 36-26 (.581); season vs. spread: 26-32-4 (.448).
This week's selections:

VIKINGS (1-2) AT JETS (3-1)
When: 8:30 p.m. Monday (ESPN)
Line: NYJ by 4 Cote's pick: NYJ 23-20
The GOTW committee also mulled Titans-Cowboys and Chiefs-Colts for the Week 5 crown, but Vikes trading for Randy Moss pushed this one over the top. I give Minnesota, coming off a bye, a big upset shot here. It isn't just Brett Favre inheriting the deep threat he has lacked, or the natural tendency to wish public comeuppance for Rex Ryan. It's also a hunch Mark Sanchez's streak of zero INTs is due to come crashing. Make it a hesitant venue pick for Planes, but closer than the betting line.

RAMS (2-2) AT LIONS (0-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: DET by 3 Cote's pick: STL 30-27
``AAWWK!'' croons the Upset Bird. ``The upset is that Lions actually are favored to beat somebody. Somebaawwk!'' A year ago this would have been a unanimous Dog of the Week pick. Now? Sam Bradford has led Rams to consecutive wins, and Lions almost beat Pack last week, Thinking Steven Jackson runs big and often vs. a Motown ground D allowing 4.7 yards per carry. "Weird you should mention Motown,'' notes U-Bird, "because coincidentally while making this pick I was listening to 'Heard It Through the Grapevaawwk' by Marvin Gaaawwwk!''

JAGUARS (2-2) AT BILLS (0-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: Even Cote's pick: Jac 19-17
Buffaloes look like worst team in NFL to me right now, so they'll be in every Dog of the Week conversation. But Jax is nothing special, either, despite unfathomably beating Indy last week. I see Maurice Jones-Drew running huge vs. Williams' awful run-stoppage.
CHIEFS (3-0) AT COLTS (2-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Line: IND by 7 Cote's pick: IND 31-16
The annual champagne better be chilled and ready, Mercury Morris and the rest of you '72 Dolphins, because Kansas City -- the last 2010 unbeaten but not as good as Miami -- is about to fall. KC will try to pound the ball, but Peyton Manning will have the oblong enough to remind the Chiefs they're not that good.

BRONCOS (2-2) AT RAVENS (3-1)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: BAL by 7 Cote's pick: BAL 27-17
Stallions (over Tennessee) and Crows (over Pittsburgh) both coming in off nice wins. Baltimore is 13-4 at home under John Harbaugh and a clearly better team. Liking Joe Flacco vs. a Denver secondary with no one to trust beyond Champ Bailey.
GIANTS (2-2) AT TEXANS (3-1)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday (FOX)
Line: HOU by 3 Cote's pick: HOU 24-20
I see this game like I see a Rubik's cube. Tough call. Eli Manning can expose a weak Texans secondary, and Andre Johnson's iffy status is a real wild card. But I assume Johnson plays and roll dice with strong home team getting LB Brian Cushing back.

PACKERS (3-1) AT REDSKINS (2-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: GB by 2 Cote's pick: GB 27-21
Skins a tempting home dog, but a risky one, too, facing a natural letdown after last week's big division win over Philly, and with Clinton Portis out. Give me Aaron Rodgers versus a Washington D allowing more than 300 passing yards per game.
BEARS (3-1) AT PANTHERS (0-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: CAR by 1 Cote's pick: CAR 19-17
This could be brutal. You know how some QB matchups fill a marquee? Todd Collins vs. Jimmy Clausen you write on a napkin. My gut says winless Cats here. Pandas missing Jay Cutler is big, and I think Carolina can run on Chitown's defense.

FALCONS (3-1) AT BROWNS (1-3)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: ATL by 3 Cote's pick: ATL 24-17
This game gives me slight pause, with Clevers in the Dawg Pound and coming off a win, but I like Atlanta a lot right now. And fantasy players who own Roddy White should be thrilled with his production against a very young Earthtones secondary.

BUCCANEERS (2-1) AT BENGALS (2-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: CIN by 6 Cote's pick: CIN 27-10
Cincy sets up nicely here for a rebound game after last week's upset loss to Browns Bengals have won six straight at home, and their uneven offense should find some sort of sync
SAINTS (3-1) AT CARDINALS (2-2)
When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Line: NO by 7 Cote's pick: NO 37-13
Arizona is remarkably bad, and handing the ball to undrafted rookie QB Max Hall is a questionable move unlikely to help. N'Awlins isn't playing like the '09 champions but the Redbirds should be their map to locating all cylinders.

TITANS (2-2) AT COWBOYS (1-2)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Line: DAL by 7 Cote's pick: DAL 27-23
Here's another game Wade Phillips and Dallas -- 1-2, home and coming off bye -- had BETTER win. think Titans lacking scary air attack will allow Cowmen to better hone in on Chris Johnson.

CHARGERS (2-2) AT RAIDERS (1-3)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: SD by 6 Cote's pick: SD 24-13
SD has won 13 in a row in this division series, and trends like that always give me pause if only for the law of averages. Nevertheless! Bolts are third in scoring offense, Raiders fourth-to-last in allowing most points. There's your trend, people.

EAGLES (2-2) AT 49ERS (0-4)
When: 8:20 p.m. Sunday (NBC)
Line: SF by 3 Cote's pick: SF 23-16
Prime-time duel finds Niners SO due to get off the schneid with a breakout game. Kevin Kolb replacing injured Michael Vick for Birds will help. See a huge night for Frank Gore vs. shaky Phils run-D, and -- finally -- a smile from Mike Singletary.
OFF THIS WEEK
• Dolphins (2-2; next at Packers): This isn't good. It's the bye week, the Dolphins aren't even playing a game and they STILL gave up two more touchdowns on special teams.
• Patriots (3-1; next vs. Ravens): Can't decide whether to congratulate or console NE for trading Moss. And what's up with Tom Brady? Justin Bieber called. He wants his hair back.
• Seahawks (2-2; next at Bears): Talk about weird. I was having a garage sale and a guy who looked like Seattle coach Pete Carroll asked if I had any offensive linemen for sale.
• Steelers (3-1; next vs. Browns): In a season without a clear-cut best team, you could argue for Pittsburgh. And that was before Ben Roethlisberger was eligible to return from the suspended list effective next week.