Greg Cote’s NFL Playoff Week 3

HOW THE DARTS LANDED:

Enjoyed a solid NFL playoffs Divisional Round last week, including a bull’s-eye on Niners’ outright upset of New Orleans. Didn’t see Packers losing, although I did have Giants with the points. Only stumble against the spread was investing too much faith in Tim Tebow to keep it close against the Pats. Must always remember: In God we trust first. In Tom Brady we trust next.

 

 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: RAVENS (13-4) AT PATRIOTS (14-3)

Line: NE by 7.

Cote’s pick: NE 27-17.

TV: 3 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

Ravens safety Ed Reed, the old Cane, caused a bit of a tempest this week saying he thought quarterback Joe Flacco seemed “rattled” in last week’s win over Houston. I think Reed and his defense are more apt to be the ones rattled in Sunday’s early game for the AFC title. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are the NFL’s most playoff-savvy quarterback/coach combo, and at home they present a mighty two-headed dragon to slay even for a premier defense like Baltimore’s. Still-maniacal-but-aging Ray Lewis is not as good in coverage as he once was, and Crows will find it tough to defend the heart of the field against Pats super-tight-end Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who’d be the best tight end on about 25 other teams. Also expect Belichick defensively to go blitz-heavy on Flacco, who can be mistake-prone when his pocket gets flooded (which is probably why Reed’s “rattled” comment hit a nerve). All four of Baltimore’s losses came on the road this season. Give Blackbirds a medium shot to cover the bet line — it’s no fluke they got this far — but not much chance to win outright. I don’t trust anything about this game more than I simply trust Brady to outscore the other team.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: GIANTS (11-7) AT 49ERS (14-3)

Line: SF by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NYG 24-20.

TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

Upset! Picking the road ’dogs outright for the NFC crown. Like legerdemain, the Giants have made that 9-7 regular-season record disappear and seem like an impossibility. NYG ended the season with big, emotional wins over the Jets and Cowboys and have steamrolled the Falcons and Packers in the playoffs — four consecutive wins by a combined 121-50 score. En fuego, people. An at-the-top-of-his game Eli Manning has the best wideout threesome around in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. And the Biggies’ now-healthy defensive line is the finest, fiercest, most-sacking-est in football — and will be a very large problem for San Fran’s offense. This will be the 26th postseason game played at Candlestick Park, most of any NFL stadium since the 1970 merger, but I like Yorkies as a road squad too confident right now to be intimidated by the venue. Manning and Niner Alex Smith give us the first championship-game quarterback matchup of former overall No. 1 draft picks since John Elway dueled Vinny Testaverde in 1998. Give me Manning this time, and the team playing the best it has all season at precisely the right time.