It's not over till it's over

October 11, 2010

Thus far the Pats have gone ‘over’ in all of their games this season. Maybe that will change now that the Patriots no longer have Randy Moss.
One thing that hasn’t changed is NFL betting ‘overs’ being the way to go.
There have been more ‘overs’ than ‘unders’ in each of the last four weeks. There were eight ‘overs’ and five ‘unders’ this past Sunday. That pushes the overall season totals mark to 38-35-2 in favor of ‘over.’
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The tally is close only because the ‘under’ count in Week 1 was 10-4-2. That obviously was an aberration based on how the past four weeks have gone. Usually, though, the final mark is a 50-50 split between ‘overs’ and ‘unders.’
There’s probably going to be one less ‘under’ this week because the Carolina Panthers have a bye. The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the Panthers’ five games.
The Panthers are averaging 10.4 points per game. This isn’t shocking considering the Panthers play a rookie quarterback and two first-year starting wide receivers with Steve Smith out.
Jimmy Clausen is going through growing pains, completing just 47.3 percent of his passes with a quarterback rating of 52.2 and a one-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Panthers have gone ‘under’ in 15 of their last 22 contests.
Minnesota went into its Monday night game versus the Jets having gone ‘under’ in its first three games.
Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Kansas City were a combined 4-12 ‘under’ in its games. The Bears-Panthers matchup this past Sunday had the lowest total of the season at 33. The two teams combined to score only 29 points.
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Despite going ‘under’ in four of its five games, Green Bay has historically been an ‘over’ club especially versus fellow NFC teams. The ‘over’ is 24-12-1 during the Packers’ last 37 games against NFC opponents.
These ‘over’ numbers may continue for the Packers considering all of their injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Dallas is another surprising ‘under’ club despite its offensive star power. The ‘under’ has cashed in 11 of the Cowboys’ past 15 games.
The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in San Francisco’s last nine games, which isn’t surprising considering the struggles of 49ers quarterback Alex Smith and the conservative approach of coach Mike Singletary.
Tampa Bay has had a strong ‘under’ tendency behind second-year head coach Raheem Morris. The ‘under’ has cashed in nine of the Buccaneers’ past 11 games.
Buffalo has been another ‘under’ squad going below the total in 11 of its last 17 matchups.
The NFC East has been a strong ‘over’ division despite Dallas’ ‘under’ trend. The ‘over’ has cashed in 10 of Washington’s last 15 games and in seven of New York’s past 10 games.
The ‘over’ has cashed in 22 of Philadelphia’s last 29 games when the Eagles have been an underdog, including this past Sunday night.
Denver and San Diego have been two of the top ‘over’ teams in the AFC.
The ‘over’ has cashed in nine of Denver’s last 10 games as Kyle Orton has thrown for 300 or more yards four consecutive weeks.
Sparked by quarterback Philip Rivers, the Chargers have gone above the total in 15 of their last 22 matchups.
The Chargers have been a real strong ‘over’ team on the road posting a 23-10-3 ‘over’ mark. The ‘over’ also has cashed in eight of the past 10 instances when San Diego was favored.
Houston went ‘under’ the total in its loss this past Sunday to the Giants. The week before the Texans had won and covered on the road against Oakland. The Texans have now gone ‘under’ 12 of the last 16 times after covering the spread the previous week.