Super Bowl betting:
Wednesday
Cantor director surprised by big move on total
Mike Colbert, sportsbook director at Cantor Gaming, was surprised to see the over/under total on the Super Bowl drop 1.5 at the prominent offshore sportsbook PinnacleSports.com.
“That’s a pretty big move, and I don’t see that going back up,” Colbert said Wednesday afternoon from his office at the M Resort. “It surprised me, because I thought it would have happened later, not in the middle of the week. But some folks must think it has topped out. That’s not public money betting the under in the middle of the week.”
Colbert added that he was holding 75 percent Over bets and was basically asking for under bets at this point in the week.
Cantor Gaming, which operates the sportsbooks at the M, Hard Rock, Venetian, Palms and other Vegas casinos, was offering New England -3 (+105) with a total of 54.5, as of 2 p.m. PT, Wednesday.
--David Purdum
Total plunging
The total, which opened at 55 at Pinnacle, fell all the way to 53 late Wednesday morning.
You can still find it as high as 54.5 at offshore and Vegas books, but the trend is definitely downward.
Legends and BetOnline have dropped the total 1.5 points since opening at 55.5. A quick scan Wednesday afternoon did not show any books still offering 55.
The action on the under could stem from the latest news on Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who admitted Wednesday he hasn't done much running on his sprained ankle. An ESPN report suggested Gronk (90 catches, 1,327 receiving yards, 18 TD) might be available Sunday only in a limited role.
--Larry Hartstein
Veteran handicapper: "Line will drop below -2.5"
Veteran professional sports bettor Lem Banker believes the Super Bowl line will be coming down, so he’s waiting before placing his wager on the Patriots.
“More New York money is going to come in,” Banker told Covers.com in a phone interview from his Las Vegas residence. “So I’m going to wait and then I’m going to lay the money-price and also lay the points.”
Banker says Tom Brady is the best quarterback he's ever seen, “and I’ve seen them all.”
He is also basing his bet on the New England offensive line’s ability to protect Brady.
“I really think New England has an advantage up front,” Banker added.
--David Purdum
Patriots money still coming in
It’s not all Giants’ money out there.
The Cal-Neva sportsbook one of the first to drop the Super Bowl line from Patriots -3 to -2.5. According to sportsbook director Chris Andrews, they went to -2.5 last Wednesday in an attempt to generate action on the Patriots. It worked.
“We had to go right back up to -3 Thursday,” said Andrews. “And the move back up was because of wise-guy money.”
As of 9 a.m. ET Wednesday, there were still a handful of shops in Nevada and offshore offering Patriots -2.5, but the most common line is New England -3 (even).
The total can be found at 55 with a few 54.5s available.
--David Purdum
Tuesday
Vegas books prepare for annoying Super Bowl tradition
It never fails. In the moments before kickoff of the biggest sporting event of the year, a guy will step to the window of a jam-packed Vegas sportsbook wanting to bet something other than the Super Bowl.
"He'll want to bet a bunch of Stanley Cup futures or something like that," MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jay Rood said.
Caesars' Todd Fuhrman sees the same thing every year.
"It could be NASCAR, baseball futures, or a European soccer game. And he wants to bet $5 on the game," Fuhrman said. "Meanwhile, there's an angry mob behind him."
Please don't be that guy.
--Larry Hartstein
Bettors love under on Manning props
Vegas books are moving prop lines after bettors hammered the under on Eli Manning's passing yards and touchdowns.
At Caesars Palace, the over/under on Manning's passing yards fell from 310 to 304.5. At MGM Mirage, the O/U on Manning's TD passes is still 2.5, but the juice changed dramatically. The under went from even to -200.
"That's a pretty big move," said Rood, who takes $2,000 max bets on props.
The prop trend is a bit surprising considering 60 percent of the action is on the Giants, Rood said, "but maybe they're calculating in [Ahmad] Bradshaw and [Brandon] Jacobs."
Other props on the move: O/U on Hakeem Nicks catches, 6 to 5.5; O/U on Victor Cruz catches, 6 to 5.5; O/U on Tom Brady completions, 25.5 to 25; O/U on number of Patriots to catch a pass, 7.5 to 7.
--Larry Hartstein
Gronkowski's status impacting line
The biggest Super Bowl betting storyline remains New England tight end Rob Gronkowski’s ankle. He’s listed as day-to-day and isn’t expected to be at full strength, even if he plays.
His status has bookmakers on edge.
“If they announce Friday that he’s not going to play, we’re not going to be able to get anyone to bet on the Patriots,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of Lucky’s sportsbooks. “I’ve had action on every Super Bowl, starting with taking the Packers -13.5 in the first Super Bowl, and I don’t ever remember a tight end moving the line. But Gronkowski’s doing it.”
--David Purdum
Monday, January 30
Early money on Giants, but majority of bets yet to be placed
The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC's Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants.
But there’s still a ton of money not yet in play.
Veteran Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who has been booking Super Bowls since the mid-70s, estimates 90 percent of the total handle bet on the Super Bowl will be placed on Saturday and Sunday.
“Right now, the money looks about 60/40 in favor of the Giants,” said Vaccaro, sportsbooks director at Lucky’s, “but if you call me back in 20 minutes that could have changed. We really don’t know anything yet.”
As of Monday afternoon, Lucky’s was in the majority of Vegas books, offering the Patriots -3 (even).
--David Purdum
South Point moving from 3 to 2.5 and back to 3
Bert Osborne, the sportsbook manager at South Point, opened his Super Bowl spread at 3.5 but didn’t stay there long.
“I think we were there for about 15 minutes,” Osborne told Covers.com. “We got a couple – I wouldn’t even say big bets - probably medium bets on the Giants. I didn’t want to risk it so I dropped us down to 3.”
Osborne says those medium bets were five figures.
South Point is at Patriots -2.5 but Osborne says he’s gone back and forth between 2.5 and 3 over the last couple days. Osborne says his book doesn’t play with the juice, which explains the yo-yo effect with South Point’s Super Bowl spread.
Final note: Osborne says he likes the Patriots over the Giants 31-20 in Super Bowl XLIV. He also predicted South Point would close its Super Bowl spread at 2.5.
--Ashton Grewal
Cantor shops holding steady at 3
Cantor Gaming, which runs the sportsbooks at the Venetian, Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan and the M Resort, was one of the only books to open with a field goal spread. While everyone else spent some time at 3.5 and even 4 (Wynn), Cantor boss Mike Colbert opened at Pats -3 (-115).
“We got some early Patriot money, I think because we were the only ones that low,” Colbert told Covers.com. “We’re standing dead even now but we’re a little heavy on the Giants on the moneyline.”
Colbert said he’s not worried about the possibility of a push with the spread sitting on the most common separation in football final scores.
“This is a real easy number for public bettors to understand,” Colbert said. “My mother understands 3 even money but she doesn’t with 2.5 -125.”
