Players who affect betting odds most

Brett Favre’s decision to — once and for all — return to the Vikings on Wednesday certainly stole the NFL summer spotlight, didn’t it? And despite the dramatic holdout of Jets cornerback Darelle Revis, not to mention the rash of injuries in Broncos camp, Favre figures to be the story the rest of the preseason around the league.

But in Las Vegas? Different story.

“His line value to a particular game is going to be down this season, for a few reasons,” said Sean Van Patten, of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “No. 1, he’s another year older and most people out there are not expecting him to have the kind of season he had last year. Plus, you have Tarvaris Jackson backing him up. And while he’s not great, he’s OK, and has experience. The dropoff, though the public may not see it this way, is just not that much, if Jackson had to come in and play.”

Wow. So, we finally found a faction of people who don’t buy into the Favre Factor.

“He’s not that big a deal to us right now,” said John Avello, of the Wynn Hotel Sportsbook. “He’ll have an affect, certainly. But two points to a game is all I’ll consider at this point. Jackson can get the job done, if needed, and the Vikings have talent all over the field.”

Their reasoning is simple enough, when you break it down. Let’s face it, he will turn 41 years old in October, he’s just now getting himself into playing shape, and he’ll be given the task of trying to top last season, in which he threw for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns.

Plus, don’t forget the Vikings have the ability to shake things up as well.

“Remember,” Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook said, “they have a great running game.”

If Favre has to sit a game, running back Adrian Peterson can take a lot of pressure off Jackson and the entire offense. The guy only ran for 1,383 yards last season.

“There aren’t many running backs out there that can have that type of impact,” Van Patten said. “Peterson is one of them.”

And so as the opening of the regular season truly comes into focus for us, let’s examine those impact players out there, the stars that can move lines significantly and make the players in Las Vegas adjust their boards.

Sure, Favre might not be one of those players anymore, but there are plenty this season in his place. Let’s take a look at some, along with their estimated line value:

THE TOP CROP

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
Peyton Manning, quarterback, Colts, 8 points: Wynn put it best regarding No. 18: “So much of it has to do not with the player, but the backup player. If you look at Peyton Manning, he’s the best quarterback to ever play the game. And his backups, usually, are the worst quarterbacks to ever play the game.”

Drew Brees, quarterback, Saints, 7 points: “He’s close to Manning,” Van Patten said. “He means so much to his team, and the line will show that, with an even bigger jump on a total, somewhere in the region of 10 points.”

Tom Brady, quarterback, Patriots, 7 points: “Well we saw that all to well two years ago,” Avello said. “With him, they were 10-point favorites sometimes. Without him, in some instances, they were underdogs.”

Philip Rivers, quarterback, Chargers, 5 points: “You have to put Rivers in that class, though a lot of people don’t like him,” Van Patten said. “He’s a tremendous quarterback, and I’d put him above the Favres and the (Aaron) Rodgerses at this point.”

Aaron Rodgers, quarterback, Packers, 4 points: Funny. After all that, Favre doesn’t make the list, but his replacement does. “He has no proven backups,” Kornegay said, “and not much of a running game.”

MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

Adrian Peterson, Ben Roethlisberger and Chris Johnson.
Adrian Peterson, running back, Vikings, 3 points: “He’s definitely in this second class, especially now with (backup) Chester Taylor’s absence,” Van Patten said. “There’s more of a workload for Peterson, with Favre or without.”

Ben Roethlisberger, quarterback, Steelers, 3 points: “(Backup Byron) Leftwich can still get the job done, and the Steelers aren’t a traditional high-scoring team. All that said, he’s still worth some line movement. The guy won two Super Bowls.”

Chris Johnson, running back, Titans, 2 points: “Remember,” Van Patten said, “a lot of it has to do with perception. Johnson is good, and will impact a line, but we may have to move his line for the sole fact that everyone is going the other way when his injury is announced.”

Larry Fitzgerald, wide receiver, Cardinals, 1.5 points: “There’s no more Kurt Warner, but also no more Anquan Boldin,” Kornegay said. “Fitzgerald has more of a difference now that Boldin is gone.”

Stephen Jackson, running back, Rams, 1.5 points: “He’s OK, but with running backs, I’m just not going to give as much,” Avello said. “Teams can just change their offensive strategies. Those guys are great running backs, but worth no more than two points on a line swing.”

THE DEFENSE RESTS

Troy Polamalu and Darelle Revis.
Troy Polamalu, safety, Steelers, 3 points: “He’s worth that much,” Avello said. “He has an impact all over the field. Games change when he’s in there.”

Darelle Revis, cornerback, Jets, 2 points: “I think you’ll see how valuable he is if the holdout continues,” Van Patten said. “You have to change offensive strategies when he plays.”

Nnamdi Asomugha, cornerback, Raiders, 1 point: “If you’re going to put Revis here, Asomugha deserves a mention as well,” Van Patten said. “But when you’re talking about the Raiders, their lines sometimes are tough to move. For instance, if he’s out, and the Raiders were already 14-point underdogs, well, we’re not going to move the line much off that.”

Patrick Willis, linebacker, 49ers, .5 points: “And it might be zero,” Kornegay said, “depending on the team San Francisco would be playing. Great player, but defensive players just don’t move lines.”

Dwight Freeney, defensive end, Colts, .5 points: Certainly, we saw that his status did little to the Super Bowl line just eight months ago. “Again, great player,” Kornegay said, “but just not enough influence to adjust the line for.”