Are bettors bailing on Cowboys?
Dallas quarterback Tony Romo's broken collarbone, along with the timing of the injury, has made the Cowboys a point-spread enigma.
Already the impact on the point spread has been enormous. Before Romo was hurt in Monday night's Dallas loss to the New York Giants, the Cowboys were 11-point home favorites over Jacksonville for Sunday. By midweek - with veteran Jon Kitna replacing Romo, who is out for six to eight weeks - the line had tumbled to the range of 6 to 61/2 points.
Adding to the Cowboys' predicament is that they're 1-5 in the NFC East, meaning their playoff chances are almost finished - which is a weird place psychologically for Dallas.
"No question, there's going to be a lot of [bettor] reluctance to get behind Dallas," said Caesars Palace sports analyst Todd Fuhrman.
However, some bettors may see opportunity in the Cowboys' misfortune.
The obvious move for Dallas coach Wade Phillips is to slow the game down, said sports handicapping expert Micah Roberts, who used to manage the sports books for Station Casinos, a chain of local gambling halls in Las Vegas.
"They have to give the ball to [running backs] Marion Barber and Felix Jones, let Kitna ease into things, and play good defense," Roberts said.
What all this may mean is that the Cowboys, playing the offensively challenged 3-4 Jaguars, may be an attractive play on the low side of the over/under total, which stood at 42 or 421/2 points midweek.
Such a play makes even more sense if the Cowboys can summon the pride to finally win a game at home, where they're 0-3 so far this season.
"The Cowboys are still a good team," said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which provides wagering odds to casinos. "But they're a team who may have bought into their own hype . . . that they could overcome the penalties and the turnovers with their talent and swagger.
"But I think that you'll see them give the effort."
In the Cowboys' last three games, the over/under total was either 43 or 44 points, and the over covered each time. But life has changed for the CowBoys. Their chances for a win rest with their defense and ground game, and all that could alter how they perform against those over/under lines.
Another disappointing NFC team - for both its fans and betting backers - that faces a character check on Sunday is New Orleans. After an embarrassing 30-17 home loss to Cleveland on Sunday, the defending NFL champion Saints are 4-3 in the NFC West and 2-5 against the spread.
Still, New Orleans was a one-point favorite midweek against visiting Pittsburgh for a Sunday night game. The Steelers are 5-1 in the tough AFC North and 4-2 against the spread.
Variables in the point-spread equation are that the Steelers are coming off an emotional road win in Miami and are beginning to suffer some casualties on defense - and that the Saints, with their backs against the wall, will come out swinging in a nationally televised game.
"If you're truly a champion, you make it happen,"