Eagles lead 2010 'over' teams

Kevin Kolb takes over for Donovan McNabb at QB in Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Eagles, and new quarterback Kevin Kolb, lead a pack of NFL teams that could be going ‘over’ the NFL odds total a lot in 2010.

The key to finding good ‘over’ teams is underrated offenses and overrated defenses. That will make for some lower totals than warranted, especially early in the season.

The ‘over’ went 11-6 for Philadelphia last year, including a 34-14 loss at Dallas during wild-card weekend. The Eagles’ defense allowed 27.2 PPG in their last five contests and eight of their final 10 opponents scored 20 points or more.

Philly’s top-5 draft picks were all on defense and first-round defensive end Brandon Graham and second-round free safety Nate Allen will both be thrown right in the mix. Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott could have as many as four new starters and his scheme is complex to learn.

The Eagles’ defense will improve as the year goes on, but some big point totals may be surrendered early.

Philadelphia’s 26.8 PPG on offense last ranked fifth in the NFL. Gone is long-time quarterback Donovan McNabb, with Kolb now under center. He had three long years to learn the system and he threw for an average of 359 yards in two starts last season.

Kolb will get a lot of help from running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver DeSean Jackson. Both are emerging stars that should have the offense humming from the outset.

Chicago Bears (10-6 ‘under’ in 2009)

Chicago was predominantly an ‘under’ team last year, including six-straight in November and December when the offense averaged just 12.3 PPG.

The Bears did go ‘over’ the final two games with the offense scoring 36.5 PPG. Quarterback Jay Cutler had eight touchdowns and just one interception in those final two contests. He needs to atone for a 26-pick season and a career-low quarterback rating (76.8).

Cutler will be a lot better with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The 17th ranked defense in total yards (337.8) added Julius Peppers, but the unit as a whole is more ‘sizzle than steak.’ The ‘D’ should be middle of the pack once again.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-5-2 ‘over’ in 2009)

Kansas City was quietly one of the more dominant ‘over’ teams in coach Todd Haley’s first year.

Quarterback Matt Cassel struggled in his inaugural season with the team, but offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is aboard and the o-line should be improved (45 sacks allowed). Cassel should be a lot closer to his 2008 form with New England and this offense will score more points than expected.

The Chiefs’ defense struggled by all measures last year. Their 26.5 PPG was 29th in the league and they were 30th in yards (388.2). Safety Eric Berry was picked high in the first round, but there are still tons of holes, especially along the front-seven. Romeo Crennel is a solid defensive coordinator, but he needs more time after being hired in January.

Seattle Seahawks (9-7 ‘under’ in 2009)

New coach Pete Carroll has escaped to the Pacific Northwest, leaving USC with a couple of national titles and a whole bunch of sanctions.

Seattle’s defense allowed 24.4 PPG last year, tied for 25th in the league. The linebackers are very good, but it lost three of its defensive ends and the average secondary will struggle again with a lack of pass rush.

Offensively, veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has looked very good in camp. He’s familiar with Carroll’s style of offense and has picked it up quickly. The wide receivers and running backs are decent and Seattle will need to throw the ball a lot to stay in games. There should be many ‘over’ games as long as Hasselbeck stays healthy.