Sportsbook Breakers

4-STAR PORTLAND over Charlotte – We continue to play against Charlotte and it’s for one reason – they just can’t set these lines high enough. They have not got to the 80 point mark in four of the past five games without DJ Augustin and he – and their offense – will be missing again tonight.

Charlotte lost last night, 106-73 to the Lakers. They actually only committed nine turnovers in the loss. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since December 12, 2004 on the road after a road loss in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.

They took just nine three-pointers in the game and made only two. The Bobcats are 0-10 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 11, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Portland lost its last game, 93-89, to Utah. They went just 10-of-13 at the free throw line. The Trailblazers are 9-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since December 20, 2010 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Portland blocked 10 shots in that game. The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since December 23, 2005 after a game on the road in which they blocked at least 10 shots.

That helped them hold Utah to just 38% from the field but it was not enough. The Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since April 08, 2008 after a loss in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PORTLAND 104, Charlotte 80

4.5-STAR Phoenix and New Orleans Under – This is a game of two offenses which are struggling mightily. Phoenix hasn’t hit the 100 point mark in 10 games while New Orleans has only gotten their once this season. Both teams have had past reputations of being high scoring but it’s not the same now.

Phoenix did play poorly defensively last game. They allowed 55% in a 122-99 loss to Dallas. The Suns are 0-12 OU (-15.8 ppg) since November 11, 2006 with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. Also, the Suns are 0-9 OU (-18.4 ppg) since March 11, 2006 after a home loss in which they allowed at least 55% from the field.

Both teams hoisted threes in that game. Dallas was 14-of-27 from beyond the arc while Dallas went 12-of-21. The Suns are 0-11 OU (-18.3 ppg) since December 08, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

The 122 points Dallas scored were 27 more than expected. The Suns are 0-7 OU (-18.7 ppg) since December 02, 2010 with at least one day of rest when their DPA was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.

No one had to register big minutes for Phoenix in that blowout. Starters Jared Dudley and Grant hill played 27 and 23 minutes respectively. The Suns are 0-9 OU (-13.9 ppg) since January 24, 2011 on the road after a loss in which Jared Dudley played fewer than 30 minutes. Also, the Suns are 0-8 OU (-12.1 ppg) since December 10, 2010 with at least a day of rest after a loss at home in which Grant Hill played fewer than 30 minutes.

New Orleans lost to Miami Monday, 109-95. They had just 25 rebounds in that game, four coming offensively. The Hornets are 0-6 OU (-16.8 ppg) since November 29, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds.

These teams have played twice this season, each winning on the road. Phoenix took the last meeting, 93-78. The Hornets are 0-9-1 OU (-9.8 ppg) since March 10, 2004 at home when facing a team they lost to as a home favorite in their previous same-season match-up. Also, the Hornets are 0-7 OU (-12.4 ppg) since December 17, 2010 at home when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss.

Steve Nash had just seven points in that game but dished out 12 assists. The Suns are 0-6 OU (-13.2 ppg) since April 22, 2010 on the road after winning the previous matchup in which Steve Nash had more assists than points.

SPORTSBOOK BREAEKRS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 85, Phoenix 83

4-STAR Indiana and Minnesota Over – Minnesota’s offense is in a grove here. While Indiana is strong defensively, they will have to put up points to try to take down the T-Wolves tonight.

Minnesota got in a real shootout last game, winning 120-108 over Houston. With a total of 198 they allowed six points more than expected. The Timberwolves are 10-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since January 03, 2007 after a road win in which their DPA was positive.

Minnesota however scored 24 points more than expected. The Timberwolves are 7-0 OU (15.6 ppg) since March 05, 2004 as a home favorite after a win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.

It was an amazing shooting game. Minnesota shot 58% from the field and 90% from the line. The Timberwolves are 7-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since February 08, 2006 at home after a game on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line.

Ricky Rubio had 11 assists but Minnesota had just 18 as a team with 43 baskets. The Timberwolves are 7-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since January 30, 2006 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

Kevin Love did not have any assists in that game. The Timberwolves are 7-0 OU (7.1 ppg) since November 29, 2008 at home after a win on the road in which Kevin Love had more turnovers than assists.

Indiana won last game, 106-99 over the Nets. They did it with assists with 26 in 38 baskets. The Pacers are 7-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 30, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.

Roy Hibbert had two of those but committed five turnovers as well. The Pacers are 6-0-2 OU (7.3 ppg) since March 23, 2011 after a win in which Roy Hibbert had more turnovers than assists.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 105, Indiana 100

4-STAR Indiana and LA LAKERS Over – Only once in these teams past eight meetings have they combined for less than 205 points! That’s a huge drop off from where this total sits. While there is some reason for that this is still the lowest total Indiana or the Lakers have played to all year. That is where the value comes in here with the extra 5-7 points you a being give due to most recent performances, particularly with both teams being rested in the game.

Indiana won on Friday night, 94-90 over Golden State. With a total of 192 in that game they scored three points less than expected. The Pacers are 7-0 OU (9.6 ppg) since December 02, 2002 as a road dog after a road win in which their DPS was negative.

They controlled the ball well in that game with 25 assists on 35 baskets and just 11 turnovers. The Pacers are 6-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since April 04, 2003 as a road dog after a road win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

Tyler Hansbrough played 21 minutes in that game but scored just four points. The Pacers are 5-0-1 OU (9.7 ppg) since November 30, 2010 after a win on the road in which Tyler Hansbrough scored fewer than 10 points.

LA lost Friday night, 92-80, in Orlando. The Lakers are 6-0 OU (7.8 ppg) since November 17, 2009 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LA LAKERS 97, Indiana 94

4-STAR DENVER over Utah – We’ve seen it once in this same rest situation already that Utah can’t really compete with Denver in this type game. The Jazz record has actually knocked this line down a couple points and that has created a huge advantage here.

Utah played last night and won 107-94 in a big game facing Deron Williams on the Nets. They had 13 steals in that game. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since December 17, 2010 after a win in which they had at least 12 steals.

What really mattered was dominating the boards, 48-32. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since April 09, 2007 as a dog after a game in which they controlled at least 60% of the available rebounds.

Denver meanwhile is coming off a huge 117-104 win over Miami on Friday night. They shot 55% from the field. The Nuggets are 8-0-1 ATS (9.6 ppg) since March 12, 2011 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

That includes a huge 12-of-25 effort from the three-point line. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since January 26, 2011 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.

Arron Afflalo started but was just a role player for them playing 21 minutes with eight points. The Nuggets are 11-0-2 ATS (7.5 ppg) since November 08, 2010 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Arron Afflalo played fewer than 30 minutes.

His fellow backcourt mate however was a star in that game with 24 points. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS (5.2 ppg) since March 30, 2011 after a win in which Ty Lawson was the Nuggets' high scorer.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DENVER 115, Utah 98

4-STAR Orlando and Portland Under – Both these teams have the defensive forces inside to deal with each other’s size and star post players. Look for that to slow the game down leading to an under.
Orlando defeated Sacramento Sunday, 104-97. They did it despite allowing 52% shooting. The Magic are 0-15 OU (-13.3 ppg) since February 20, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
They scored one fewer basket than Sacramento but had 14 more attempts. The Magic are 0-7 OU (-8.3 ppg) since May 17, 2009 with two or more days of rest after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
One advantage for Orlando was committing just 10 turnovers. The Magic are 0-12-1 OU (-10.3 ppg) since May 12, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Jameer Nelson scored just five points in that game as Jason Richardson led with 22. The Magic are 0-6 OU (-8.9 ppg) since April 22, 2011 after a win in which Jameer Nelson was not the Magic's high scorer.
Portland is coming off a 105-97 win last night. They shot 51% from the field in that game. The Trailblazers are 0-9 OU (-14.8 ppg) since January 28, 2006 with no rest after a home win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
They allowed two points more than expected in that game. The Trailblazers are 0-10 OU (-15.1 ppg) since February 27, 2011 after a win in which their DPA was positive.
Nicolas Batum scored nine points off the bench in that game. The Trailblazers are 0-11 OU (-12.8 ppg) since December 18, 2010 after a win at home in which Nicolas Batum scored fewer than 10 points.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Orlando 95, PORTLAND 94

4.5-STAR Sacramento and Toronto Over – Sacramento has not allowed less than 100 points in any of their last five games, allowing an average of 108. Even if Toronto just gets to 100 points here its going to be plenty to send this over the surprisingly low total.
Toronto struggled last night 93-78 in a loss to Washington. They shot just 39.5% from the field. The Raptors are 10-0 OU (21.9 ppg) since March 03, 2007 with no rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
Toronto even got a break from Washington shooting in that game, going 9-of-17 from the free throw line. The Raptors are 9-0 OU (20.8 ppg) since November 18, 2002 with no rest after a game in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Andrea Bargnani led Toronto with 22 points while Jose Calderon had just eight. The Raptors are 5-0 OU (13.5 ppg) since February 04, 2009 at home with no rest after a loss in which Jose Calderon was not the Raptors' high scorer.
Sacramento lost last night, 112-85 to Philadelphia. Demarcus Cousins led them in that game with 17 points. The Kings are 10-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since February 04, 2011 after a loss in which Demarcus Cousins was the Kings' high scorer.
Jason Thompson has taken up a limited role but had a nice game in the last one with 6-of-7 shooting for 13 points. The Kings are 9-0-1 OU (10.8 ppg) since February 13, 2011 after two losses in which Jason Thompson took fewer than 10 shots in each.
John Salmons has been struggling meanwhile, going just 3-of-10 for six points in 32 minutes last night. The Kings are 7-0 OU (15.6 ppg) since February 14, 2007 on the road after two losses in which John Salmons scored fewer than 10 points in each.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERs PREDICTION: SACRAMENTO 103, Toronto 102

4-STAR CHICAGO -13.5 over Washington – This game is a letdown for the Wizards. It sounds weird saying a 1-8 team would have a letdown but it’s the case here. They knew if they did not win last night it would be a long while before they picked up their first win so they put everything into that one and won’t have enough to compete at all here tonight.
That 93-78 win last night over Toronto broke an eight-game losing streak for Washington to start the season. The Wizards are 0-10 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since January 19, 2009 on the road off a win that broke at least a three-game losing streak.
They held Toronto to just 39.5% shooting. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since January 19, 2009 on the road after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Just nine of Washington’s 93 points in that game came from the foul line. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since November 28, 2009 after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Javale McGee played a controlled game in that one going 4-of-6 from the field with 10 points. The Wizards are 0-12 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since January 22, 2009 with no rest after a win in which Javale Mcgee took fewer than 10 shots.
John Wall had just eight points but nine assists as two players scored 15 for Washington. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 05, 2010 on the road after a win in which John Wall was not the Wizards' high scorer.
Chicago won last night, 111-100. They shot 53% in that game. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since March 22, 1997 with no rest after a double digit road win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CHICAGO 103, Washington 81

4-STAR Cleveland over UTAH – Cleveland is the better team than Utah. Their defensive effort is consistently much better and that will make a difference here.
Cleveland does struggle against top teams and that happened Sunday night in a 98-78 loss to Portland. They committed 24 turnovers with just 17 assists in the game. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since February 02, 2011 after a loss in which they had more turnovers than assists.
No one played more than 29 minutes for Cleveland in that game. Starting guard Anthony Parker checked in at 23. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since December 15, 2010 on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Anthony Parker played fewer than 30 minutes.
Utah is coming off a 88-87 win at Golden State Saturday. It was 3.5 points less than expected. The Jazz are 0-9-1 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since February 22, 2010 after a road win in which their DPS was negative.
Raja Bell scored nine points in that game while Utah was led by Gordon Hayward with 18. The Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since December 22, 2010 after a win on the road in which Raja Bell was not the Jazz's high scorer.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Cleveland 96, UTAH 91

4-STAR Toronto and Washington Under – Neither of these teams seems like much a defensive force, so it has been quietly which they have been two of the biggest under teams in the league over the last season plus. Look for things to stay low here.
Toronto is playing their fourth game in five nights coming off a 97-87 win over Minnesota last night. They shot 44% from the field while holding Minnesota to 34%. The Raptors are 0-8-1 OU (-11.7 ppg) since December 05, 2010 after a game in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent.
Andrea Bargnani had a huge night going off for 31 points. The Raptors are 0-7-1 OU (-10.6 ppg) since January 12, 2011 after a win in which Andrea Bargnani was the Raptors' high scorer.
Toronto did its biggest damage at the foul line, making an extremely impressive and unrepeatable 26-of-28 attempts. The Raptors are 0-10 OU (-12.2 ppg) since November 05, 2010 after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Washington also faced Minnesota last on Sunday afternoon and lost 93-72. They made just 9-of-16 free throws in that game. The Wizards are 0-9 OU (-12.7 ppg) since December 16, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Washington was led by Nick Young and Trevor Booker with 14 points each in the loss. Jordan Crawford added eight. The Wizards are 0-12 OU (-8.2 ppg) since February 28, 2011 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Jordan Crawford was not the Wizards' high scorer.
This total is currently a little low for them but it’s no reason to be scared off. The Wizards are 0-11-1 OU (-6.1 ppg) since 2010 with at least a day of rest when the total is less than 191.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 90, Toronto 85

4-STAR Houston over CHARLOTTE – Charlotte is not a deep team and not well positioned to take on teams unrested and playing their fourth game in five nights. Look for Houston to take advantage here.
Houston is coming off a near miss on Saturday, having fallen to Oklahoma City, 98-95. They actually made two more baskets than Oklahoma City in that game. The Rockets are 11-0-1 ATS (7.1 ppg) since November 20, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.
The difference then came at the line where the Thunder held a 19-14 advantage. The Rockets are 8-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since December 26, 2000 on the road with two or more days of rest after a home loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Houston did a nice job distributing the ball in that game with 23 assists and just 11 turnovers. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since April 17, 2006 on the road after a home loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Chase Budinger was just 3-of-8 from the field for six points in that contest. It has been part of a larger trend of him getting involved offensively. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since January 10, 2011 after two losses in which Chase Budinger took fewer than 10 shots in each.
Charlotte is back on the road Thursday as they face Atlanta. The Bobcats are 0-12 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since March 16, 2011 before playing on the road.
They lost last night, 91-87, at home to New York. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 24, 2010 at home with no rest after a loss.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Houston 103, CHARLOTTE 92

4-STAR TORONTO over New Jersey – Toronto is one of the teams who are not great but play well enough together to beat up on the really bad teams. New Jersey is one of those teams with Deron Williams as their only real weapon. The Raptors have excelled in shutting down point guards this year, giving them a big advantage here with Williams banged up.

New Jersey is coming off an 89-70 loss to Boston. They went just 4-of-20 on three points attempts in that loss. The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since December 09, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them.

Anthony Morrow played 22 minutes off the bench and scored nine points on just 4-of-7 shooting. The Nets are 0-11 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since January 17, 2011 after a loss in which Anthony Morrow took fewer than 10 shots.

Toronto is coming off a 92-77 win over Cleveland Wednesday. They held the Cavs to just 29.6% from the field. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since December 23, 2009 after a win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

Toronto shot 47% but didn’t get to the foul line a great deal, gong 10-of-13 there. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since January 04, 2009 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

It was a big night with 31 points for Andrea Bargnani, going 11-of-16 shooting. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since January 13, 2008 at home after a win in which Andrea Bargnani shot better than 66% from the field.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: TORONTO 104, New Jersey 87

4-STAR Memphis over UTAH – Even without Zach Randolph, Memphis is the better of these two teams. They have beat similar level of teams in Sacramento and Minnesota the past two games and should keep it going here with Mike Conley in the lineup.

Conley and Rudy game each had three steals in that 90-86 win over Minnesota. They had 13 steals as a team. The Grizzlies are 15-0-1 ATS (11.2 ppg) since November 05, 1995 as a dog after a road win in which they had at least 12 steals.

Gay played some big minutes in that one with 40:17 of playing time. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since October 30, 2010 after a win on the road in which Rudy Gay played more than 40 minutes.

Utah won its last game, 85-73 over Milwaukee, despite scoring nine points less than expected. The Jazz are 0-10-1 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 08, 2010 after a win in which their DPS was negative.

That’s because they held Milwaukee to 19 points less than expected. The Jazz are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since March 26, 2010 when their DPA was minus 15 points or less in their previous game.

It was a turnover filled game for Utah with 24 total, 16 of which were whistled. The League is 0-10-1 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since November 02, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. Also, the Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since January 06, 2006 with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four.

A 48.5-30.5% shooting differential allowed them to overcome that. The Jazz are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 17, 2010 after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

Something that helped them keep Milwaukee so low was 12 Utah blocks. The Jazz are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 12, 2011 after a game in which they blocked at least 10 shots.

Paul Milsap cleaned up several of the many misses in that game posting 13 points and 12 rebounds. The Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 19, 2010 after a win in which Paul Millsap had a double double.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Memphis 97, UTAH 90

4.5-STAR CHARLOTTE over Atlanta – The way the Hawks schedule has set up this game already spelled some big advantage for Charlotte. But when last night’s Miami/Atlanta game went three overtimes, that completely sealed the deal. The is the fourth game for five nights for the Hawks and we expect their legs to be dead against a rested Bobcats team.

Atlanta lost that game in triple overtime last night, 116-109. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since October 31, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest off an overtime loss.

By the time the overtimes were over, Atlanta had allowed 23 points more than expected. The Hawks are 0-9 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since March 19, 2006 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.

Marvin Williams was one Hawk who really struggled in that game with just 2-of-10 shooting. The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 28, 2005 on the road with no rest after a loss in which Marvin Williams shot worse than 33% from the field.

Charlotte had lost four straight before upsetting the Knicks on the road Wednesday night, 118-100. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since November 26, 2008 off a win that broke at least a four-game losing streak.

They shot an impressive 7-of-11 on threes in that win . The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since March 31, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

DJ Augustin was the main beneficiary of that, picking up 10 assists. The Bobcats are 5-0-1 ATS (4.9 ppg) since November 26, 2008 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Dj Augustin had at least 10 assists.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CHARLOTTE 93, Atlanta 82

4-STAR Milwaukee and Denver Under – With Denver playing their third game in three nights look for them to slow things down a bit. Milwaukee never plays at a quick pace so we see nice value with this number.

In fact this is the highest total they’ve played to all season. Last game the total was just 185 in a 102-81 win over Washington. The Bucks are 0-8 OU (-20.5 ppg) since December 19, 2009 when the total is at least 13.5 points higher than it was last game.

Milwaukee shot 53% from the field in that win, holding Washington to just 35%. The Bucks are 0-8 OU (-20.9 ppg) since November 13, 2010 after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. Also, the Bucks are 0-6 OU (-13.9 ppg) since January 12, 2011 after a double digit win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent.

It would have been an even bigger blowout if Milwaukee did not commit 20 turnovers. the League is 0-8-1 OU (-14.3 ppg) since November 05, 2010 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. Also, the Bucks are 0-6 OU (-19.1 ppg) since December 14, 2007 after a win in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.

Andrew Bogut committed three of those and had just two assists. The Bucks are 0-10 OU (-14.3 ppg) since December 06, 2010 after a win in which Andrew Bogut had more turnovers than assists.

Denver won last night, 99-90 over the Lakers. They managed despite shooting just 2-of-18 on threes. The Nuggets are 0-13-1 OU (-10.1 ppg) since December 22, 2006 at home after a game at home in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

They also corralled just 5 offensive rebounds. The Nuggets are 0-7 OU (-8.2 ppg) since December 26, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds.

As such, they scored three points less than expected in the loss. The Nuggets are 0-7 OU (-15.8 ppg) since March 02, 2011 after a win in which their DPS was negative.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DENVER 93, Milwaukee 92

4.5-STAR Atlanta and MIAMI Under – Miami’s scoring has been up due to them completely taking advantage of teams on the fast break. They know when to pick their spots. Atlanta is an athletic team that can matchup with the Heat in the open court so look for them to pull back the reigns there and just beat Atlanta in the half court.

Atlanta hasn’t allowed an 100 point scorer yet this season, though they have allowed 98 and 95 points their past two games. The Hawks are 0-7 OU (-20.9 ppg) since February 27, 2009 when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games.

That last game was their first loss on the season, 95-84 to Houston. The Hawks are 0-6 OU (-19.1 ppg) since April 05, 2008 as a dog off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak.

Atlanta didn’t get to the free throw line enough in that game going just 10-of-16 at the line. The Hawks are 0-9 OU (-20.0 ppg) since November 27, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Al Horford and Joe Johnson each led Atlanta with 15 points apiece in the loss. The Hawks are 0-5 OU (-19.9 ppg) since April 30, 2010 after a loss in which Al Horford was the Hawks' high scorer.

Miami is coming off a 129-90 dismantling of Charlotte last night. The Heat are 0-10-1 OU (-15.0 ppg) since March 27, 2006 after playing at home against the Bobcats.

They shot an even 60.0% from the field. The Heat are 0-8 OU (-13.4 ppg) since January 20, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 55% from the field.

That includes a strong 7-of-11 performance on threes. The Heat are 0-8 OU (-8.5 ppg) since December 11, 2010 after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 98, Atlanta 89

4-STAR UTAH over New Orleans – This is not exactly a battle of the league’s elite. But without Eric Gordon, they are really a nightmare offensively. They can’t stretch the defense even a little bit and with Utah’s size, that creates a major problem.

New Orleans lost last night, 96-80 to Sacramento. They went 0-of-15 on three-pointers in that one. The Hornets are 0-12-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since December 06, 2005 as a dog after a road loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

That was a game where they had a size advantage, but even 22 offensive rebounds couldn’t help them. The League is 0-11 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 23, 2010 as a dog after a double digit loss in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds.

Utah had a day off after a 104-89 loss to San Antonio. The Spurs never trailed in that game. The Jazz are 6-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 02, 2009 with at least one day of rest off a road loss in which they never led.

Going 10-of-16 on three pointers was a big reason for that. The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (3.0 ppg) since January 27, 2010 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Utah did have 13 steals and held a 19-7 turnover advantage in the loss. The Jazz are 6-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since November 26, 2008 as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had at least 12 steals. Also, the Jazz are 6-0-2 ATS (8.4 ppg) since April 09, 2003 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

Paul Milsap was just 4-of-7 shooting in 25 minutes of action. The Jazz are 7-0-1 ATS (6.9 ppg) since February 02, 2009 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Paul Millsap took fewer than 10 shots.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: UTAH 91, New Orleans 76

4-STAR Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – It’s not often that you get to say a 2-13 team is on a roll. However, the Colts really are here. In late season games where it doesn’t mean anything to either squad, motivation is everything. The Colts seem to really have rallied around not getting the number one pick and we think they do manage to avoid that fate with a win here.

Indianapolis picked up its second win over an AFC South opponent in as many weeks, 19-16 over the Texans. They were TD dogs going into that game. The Colts are 8-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since October 29, 2006 as a road dog after a straight up win.

Indianapolis was down nearly the entire way of that game after trailing 10-6 at half. The Colts are 9-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since October 29, 2000 after a win against a divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half.

Until their game winning TD in the final seconds it seemed as though red zone struggles were going to be Indy’s downfall in that game. They settle for four field goals, converting just the lone TD out of five trips into the red zone. The Colts are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since October 29, 2006 as an away dog after a game where they failed to score TDs on at least two red zone attempts.

Jacksonville as played a divisional opponent last week, falling to Tennessee, 23-17. The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since 2008 when they are off a loss last week vs a divisional opponent. Also, the Jaguars are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since November 28, 2004 after a straight up loss versus the Titans.

Penalties made a big difference in that game. Jacksonville committed six, three of which allowed first downs for Tennessee, while the Titans did not commit a single penalty. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 26, 2004 after a game as a dog last week where they allowed at least three first downs via penalties.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Indianapolis 20, JACKSONVILLE 17

4.5-STAR San Francisco -10.5 over ST LOUIS – Linesmakers can only make this line so high but really, have you seen St. Louis play lately. They are averaging 6.5 point per game their last four and that’s no fluke. It would take a strange occurrence for them to get to double digits and San Francisco’s offenses is going to be able to plug their way to the cover in this one.

San Francisco’s ball control offense has been in full effect over the last two weeks in wins over Pittsburgh and Seattle. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since December 06, 1992 as a 7+ favorite after wins in each of the previous two weeks in which they threw no interceptions.

They did not take chances and it led them to go just 3-of-14 on third down attempts. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 29, 2009 as a favorite after a road game last week where they went under 33% on third downs.

St. Louis lost last week, 27-0 to Pittsburgh. They managed just 68 total passing yards in the loss. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since September 22, 1991 the week after a loss in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing.

St. Louis played a clean game in that one at least with just four penalties for 21 yards. The Rams are 0-14-1 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 26, 1993 in December and January regular a season games after a game where they had 14 or more points and five or less penalties.

That game was not expected to be high scoring with a total of 34.5. The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-14.2 ppg) since October 14, 1993 after a game with a total of 38 or less and they scored at least a TD less than expected.

This is St. Louis’ first divisional game since a week 14 Monday night loss to Seattle. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since October 06, 1996 as a 7+ dog vs a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks.

They faced San Francisco in week 13, falling 26-0. The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 26, 1995 as a 7+ dog when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Francisco 23, ST LOUIS 6

4.5-STAR GREEN BAY over Detroit – This line is a gift for many reasons. To begin with, it just assumes Aaron Rodgers and the Packers key plays will not suit up. We currently don’t know their intentions and with a bye week coming next week, it’s perfectly reasonable to think Rodgers would play for at least a half. If so, they could easily rack up a double digit lead. Even if it is Matt Flynn and crew the entire way we still don’t get this line. Flynn is a reasonable quarterback and Detroit is a different team on grass and cold weather (see Matt Stafford’s performance in Chicago). It’s not like the Lions have a whole lot to play for this week either, and they are the ones with the game to play next week. Grab the Packers here.

Detroit is somewhat hot coming into this one having won three straight games. The Packers are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 26, 1993 in regular season games in December and January at home when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

Last week they dominated San Diego, 38-10. The Lions are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 25, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road after a straight up win at home.

They yet again did it nearly all through the air, with 353 passing yards and just 87 rushing. The Lions are 0-9 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 16, 2003 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards at home as a favorite.

Still, Detroit held the ball for 32:21. They recorded just one sack in the game. The Lions are 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since November 9, 1997 after a game where they controlled the ball at least 32 minutes and recorded less than two sacks.

Green Bay also relied on a heavy dose of the pass Sunday night, throwing for 282 yards and running for 81 in a 35-21 win over Chicago. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since October 17, 2004 within 3 of pick the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards at home.

The total in that game was 42, going over by 14 points. The League is 10-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since 2008 after a game against the Bears where the game when over by double digits.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: GREEN BAY 27, Detroit 20

4-STAR Utah +4.5 over LA LAKERS – This is the first time this season we have a situation occurring which is going to be interesting to watch, the Lakers playing their third game in three nights. What we found in 1999, the last time this situation was prevalent, is that this is not an automatic play against. This is to be taken on a team-by-team basis, but the Lakers – who are old and not that deep – are just the kind of team you want to play against here, especially when favored.

Los Angeles is now off to an 0-2 start, after losing 100-91 at Sacramento last night. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since March 19, 2010 after playing the Kings.

Three-point shooting was the entire difference in that game. Sacramento went 9-of-18, while LA was a miserable 1-of-16. The Lakers are 0-10 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since February 17, 2004 at home after a game on the road in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Kobe was hoisting the ball in the loss, going 10-of-24 from the field. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS (-3.8 ppg) since March 21, 2003 at home with no rest after a loss in which Kobe Bryant took more than 20 shots.

As such, Kobe led the Lakers there with a game-high 29 points. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since January 30, 2011 after a loss where they allowed between 95 and 110 points in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers' high scorer.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Utah 97, LA LAKERS 93

4-STAR Ny Giants +3 over NY JETS – This game isn’t a true road game for the Giants in their home stadium so this +3 number is a real value. Basically Vegas is saying the Jets are a better team than the Giants. We could not disagree more. Obviously the Giants are way too susceptible to let down games but they can also come to play when the chips are down. They are here.
Last week’s embarrassing 23-10 home loss to the Redskins dropped the Giants to 7-7 overall on the year. It’s a turning point for them. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 18, 1994 on the road when they are 500 after game seven.
New York often struggles with Washington’s style of play and it gives them value when they face an opponent they can handle better the next week. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since September 26, 2004 after playing at home versus the Redskins.
Because New York plays Dallas in week 17, they still control their own destiny with a pair of wins giving them the NFC East title at 9-7. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since October 27, 1996 on the road on artificial turf vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a divisional opponent.
The Jets had a big game last week as well and got destroyed, 45-19, as a three-point underdog at Philadelphia. The Jets are 0-8 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 24, 1994 in regular season games in December and January as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week.
It was a sloppy game from the get go and only got worse as the game got out of hand early. Both teams committed four turnovers. The Jets are 0-12 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since 1989 when they are off a non-shutout loss by more than three TDs in which they committed at least three turnovers.
The teams also combined for 18 penalties with New York picking up three first downs as a result. The Jets are 0-7-1 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since 2002 at home after a road game last week where they picked up at least three first downs via penalty.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NY Giants 27, NY JETS 20

4-STAR Denver over BUFFALO – Would you really bet against Tim Tebow on the eve of the birthday of Jesus? We are kidding, but the main crux of this play is motivation. Buffalo was able to taste success early on but that has made the end of this season all the more painful as they have mailed things in. The Broncos meanwhile have their season on the line here and will not lose this one.
While New England pulled away from them last week, Denver ran the ball very effectively. They picked up 252 rushing yards and 13 first downs on the ground. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (14.0 ppg) since October 2005 on the road after a home game where they picked up at least 10 first downs rushing.
Buffalo meanwhile lost their seventh straight game last week, 30-23 at home to Miami. They allowed 9.2 points more than expected to the Dolphins in that game. The Bills are 0-16 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since November 24, 1991 when the line is within nine of pick em after facing the Dolphins if they allowed more points than expected to them.
Despite the high score, neither team was actually very good at moving the ball. Miami was just 3-of-13 on third downs. The Bills are 0-8-1 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 23, 2007 at home after stopping their opponent on at least 67% of third down attempts last game. Also, the League is 0-8 ATS (-15.4 ppg) since December 26, 2004 in December and January regular season games at home after a home loss where they stopped their opponent on at least 75% of third down attempts.
Buffalo meanwhile was also worse, going 0-of-11. The Bills are 0-7 ATS (-20.2 ppg) since October 2009 as a dog after a home game last week where they converted less than 33% of first downs.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 24, BUFFALO 13

4-STAR Cleveland over BALTIMORE – The secret is out in Cleveland. Seneca Wallace gives the Browns a far better chance to win than Colt McCoy and he will be back at the helm this weekend. They should have won at Arizona and will compete here with Wallace and a Peyton Hillis far more acclimated and involved in the offense than when these teams met a few weeks back.
The Browns fell by at 14 in that first game to Baltimore as a seven points dog, but the last two weeks, Cleveland covered by 3 and 3.5 points respectively. The Browns are 11-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since October 27, 2002 with a total of at least 35 as a road dog when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games, and they allowed more than a FG last game.
Last week, they fell to Arizona, 20-17 in overtime. The Browns are 8-0-1 ATS (9.7 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a road 7+ dog when they lost 1-3 points last week. More recently, the Browns are 7-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since December 18, 2005 on the road when they lost 1-3 points last week.
While it feels like Baltimore really takes care of AFC North opponents, they actually haven’t in recent seasons. The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since December 2006 at home versus divisional opponents between weeks 4 and 16.
Last week, Baltimore was killed in San Diego, 34-14. They punted only twice in that game, with San Diego not punting at all in the game. The Ravens are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since December 20, 1998 after a Sunday a game where they punted no more than four times and the total was at least 42.5.
They also committed just three penalties. The Ravens are 0-12-1 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since January 16, 2010 after a regulation game they committed five or fewer penalties and they allowed more than a TD.
Joe Flacco put up solid, but empty numbers in that game, as the Ravens went 24-of-35 through the air. The League is 0-8 ATS (-14.2 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a favorite the week after a straight up loss on the road as a favorite in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 24, Cleveland 17

4-STAR Cincinnati over ST LOUIS – At this point, the Rams are completely limping towards the finish line. That can’t even compete with NFC West teams let alone battle tested teams with something to play for. The short week is going to further hinder them here and lead to a blowout.

Cincinnati was stunned in a costly lost last week. They led for nearly the entire game, right down to the two second mark, before Houston’s last second TD gave the Texans a 20-19 victory. The League is 10-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 21, 1997 in regular season games in December and January as a favorite the week after a loss at home in which they led after each of the first three quarters.

Cincinnati has a stellar defense, having forced opponents into a league high 6.0 punts per game. The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since September 25, 2005 when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Last week, St. Louis lost to Seattle for the second time this season, 30-13. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since October 19, 1997 when they got swept last week on the road as a dog.

In that Monday night game they were 10 point dogs, and scored two field goals and a TD. The Rams are 0-15 ATS (-15.0 ppg) since 2005 when they are off a road loss as a dog of more than a field goal in which they had more field goals than touchdowns.

St. Louis only committed five penalties in the game. The Rams are 0-14 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since December 26, 1993 in December and January regular season games where they scored 14 or fewer points and committed five or fewer penalties.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Cincinnati 24, ST LOUIS 10

4.5-STAR New York and Philadelphia Over – New York has quietly been putting up big points recently, relying on a nice run/pass mix. Philadelphia meanwhile has finally found their offense last week and their weapons are getting healthy. Look for offense to shine here.

New York won last week, 37-10, over the Chiefs. The Jets were 10 point favorites in that game with a total of just 36. The League is 10-0 OU (9.6 ppg) since December 24, 2006 after a game where they were double digit favorites and the total was no more than 36.

As such they scored 14 points more than expected, picking up 24 first downs. The Jets are 9-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since November 13, 2008 after a game where they picked up at least 20 first downs and scored at least 10 points more than expected.

Kansas City on the other hand had just 13, going 2-of-12 on third down attempts. The Jets are 10-0 OU (6.0 ppg) since December 27, 2009 after a game as a favorite where they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third down attempts.

Getting out to that big lead, NY was able to just rely on the run, with 42 attempts compared to 21 passes. The Jets are 7-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since October 03, 1993 the week after at home as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average.

This game is expected to be tight with Philly currently the three point favorite. The Eagles are 16-0 OU (14.7 ppg) since November 14, 2005 within 3 of pick on artificial turf after playing on the road.

They won in Miami last week, 26-10, despite going just 4-of-15 on third downs. The Eagles are 8-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since November 14, 2005 after a game as a dog last week where they picked up less than 33% of third down attempts.

Miami was no better, going just 3-of-15 on third downs. The Eagles are 8-0-1 OU (11.2 ppg) since October 26, 2003 following a game as a dog last week where they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third down attempts.

Miami was up 7-0 after the first quarter but by halftime trailed, 24-7. The Eagles are 8-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since October 2000 after a game where they trailed after one quarter but led by at least a TD at half.

At 5-8, Philadelphia is possibly still alive in the NFC East because they play divisional opponents the next two weeks. The Eagles are 7-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since November 11, 2001 as a home favorite vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.

They face a Jets team first here which has won three straight games. The Eagles are 6-0 OU (9.2 ppg) since November 15, 2009 when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 31, New York 27

4.5-STAR Washington over NY GIANTS – We have certainly seen this act from the Giants before. Coming off a big win they are a home favorite and lay an egg. Don’t forget New York lost four straight games before last week and should have lost last week’s as well. Don’t trust them as a big favorite.

Washington has lost two straight games and it has been the defense which has been the problem in both, allowing at least six points more than expected in each. The Redskins are 9-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since January 07, 2006 as a dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games.

Both of those games came at home for Washington. The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since December 30, 2001 in regular season games in December and January on the road after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks.

Against New England last week, Washington took to the ground, pounding the ball for 34 carries. The League is 8-0-1 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 22, 2007 as a dog the week after at home as a TD+ dog in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.

It was effective as well, picking up 170 yards. The Redskins are 8-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since September 17, 2007 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.

As you might expect then, they controlled the ball for over 36 minutes. The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since December 19, 1999 as a 7+ dog the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.

Red zone failures hurt Washington in that seven point loss as they went just 2-of-5 on attempts inside the 20. The Redskins are 6-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 2007 after a loss where they failed to score TDs on at least three trips to the red zone.

New York meanwhile was 3-of-5 on the red zone. The Giants are 0-8 ATS (-16.5 ppg) since November 25, 2007 at home after a win last week where they did not fail to score TDs on more than two trips to the red zone.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Washington 24, NEW YORK 21

4.5-STAR New York +3.5 over DALLAS – Home field is not that important in the matchup of these rivals. The road team has won seven of the last 11 matchups since 2006. The Cowboys are going to struggled against the Giants pass rush and it will be the difference here.

New York got on track last week, pulling off the near upset of the undefeated Packers, falling 38-35. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 18, 1994 in regular season games in December and January as a dog after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.

The offense picked up 24 first downs in the game. The Giants are 11-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since December 27, 1998 in December and January after a game where they picked up at least 24 first downs and scored 21+ points.

That loss dropped New York to a critical point of 6-6. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since December 18, 1994 on the road when they are 500 after game seven.

That was New York’s fourth straight loss after starting the season 6-2. The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since December 12, 2004 in regular season games in December and January when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak.

Last week, Dallas threw for 261 yards and ran for 75 in a 19-13 overtime loss to Arizona. The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since October 02, 2005 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road as a favorite. Also, the Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since 1997 in non-playoff games in December and January following a game where they failed to cover but threw for 250+ yards.

This is the first meeting between these teams this year with a week 17 showdown looming. The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since November 18, 2007 as a favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York 31, DALLAS 24

4.5-STAR DENVER over Chicago – These are teams going in opposite directions. With Caleb Henne under center and now no Matt Forte, the Bears know they are done. Denver meanwhile is playing with all the confidence in the world. Look for them to win a little more convincingly this week.

Last Sunday, Denver defeated Minnesota, 35-32. They put up 16.5 points more than expected despite holding the ball less than 23 minutes. The League is 15-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) in December and January regular season games since 1996 after scoring at least 14 points more than expected last week while controlling the ball for less than 26 minutes.

What Tim Tebow continued to do in that game was not throw interceptions. He’s now gone five straight games without throwing one. The Broncos are 10-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since October 16, 2005 after wins in each of the previous two weeks in which they threw no interceptions.
Chicago is on the road here but will be back home next week against Seattle. The Bears are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 01, 1996 in regular season games in December and January as a road dog between home games.

Last week, they were at home yet lost a critical game to the Chiefs, 10-3. Caleb Hanne was just 11-of-24 throwing in that game. The League is 0-9 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since December 03, 2007 in regular season games in December and January the week after at home as a TD+ favorite in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.

Kansas City didn’t fare much better through the air, throwing for just 139 yards but they were enough. The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since November 18, 2007 when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DENVER 31, Chicago 17

4-STAR NAVY -7 over Army – It’s been the worst year for Navy in recent years and there is only one thing that can save it – a dominating win over Army. They are still the far superior team to Army and can get it here.
Both teams have 20 days rest coming into this one and plenty of time to prepare. They were at Temple last game where they lost 42-14. Army is 0-23 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since 1997 with at least nine days rest in the regular season after not winning by 20+ or losing by more than 31 last game and not coming off an away win (team= 'ARMY' and season>=1997 and rest>=9 and 20>p:margin>=-31 and game type='RS' and (p:H or p:L)).
This season the Black Knights are scoring 25.2 points per game. Army is 0-16 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since October 30, 2004 when averaging between 17.7 and 25.7 points per game past game three if they aren’t 19+ point dogs or 7 point favorites and if their opponent scored more than a TD last game (date>=20041030 and 25.7>=Average(points@team and season)>=17.7 and team= 'ARMY' and -77 and game number>3).
As around TD dog, Army does not play well. Army is 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since 1999 between games four and 12 as between a 4.5 and 7.5 point dog if they did not cover by 18+ in last game (7.5>=line>=4.5 and season>=1999 and team= 'ARMY' and p:ats margin<18 and 12>=game number>=4).
Navy meanwhile lost close last game, 27-24 to San Jose St. Navy is 13-0 ATS (19.0 ppg) since 2002 if not more than a 10 point favorite after a game where they had more than four games rest, where they scored 17-31 points and the game was decided by no more than four points (team='NAVY' and season>=2002 and -4<=p:margin<=4 and p:rest>4 and line>=-10 and 31>=p:points>=17).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NAVY 34, Army 17

4.5-STAR Atlanta over HOUSTON – These teams are actually built pretty similarly. There is just one glaring difference. Matt Ryan vs. TJ Yates. While Yates might be ok in the long-term, Atlanta should have found ways to expose him here, stacking the box against the Houston running game and forcing Yates to beat them. We don’t think they will.

Atlanta has found rhythm winning two straight after a tough loss to New Orleans. They were 9.5 point favorites last week against Minnesota, winning 24-14. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since December 03, 2006 in regular season games in December and January on the road after playing as a favorite. Also, the Falcons are 9-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 03, 2010 after playing at home as a favorite.

Atlanta dominated the ball in that game controlling it for 34:39. The Falcons are 9-0-1 ATS (6.0 ppg) since October 29, 2006 after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.

Their means of doing that was controlling third downs, picking up 7-of-14 offensively. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since November 2009 after a road game where they converted at least 50% of their third downs attempts.

On the other side, they held Minnesota to 4-of-13 on third down. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since November 24, 2005 as a favorite after a game as a favorite where they stopped their opponent on more than 67% of third down tries.

At 8-3, Houston is a game ahead of Atlanta and has some leeway on this one. The Texans are 0-8-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since November 03, 2002 at home versus any team with fewer wins after playing on the road.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Atlanta 27, HOUSTON 13

Texas is 0-13 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since October 25, 2008 if not a 9+ point dog and without an extra week’s rest, when facing a team which has a winning percentage of at least .750, if Texas allowed more than a TD last game (team='TEX' and date>=20081025 and po:points>7 and o:WP>=72 and rest<13 and line<9).

4-STAR Wyoming -5.5 over COLORADO STATE – Wyoming is having an underrated season at 7-4. Colorado State meanwhile has completely mailed things in as losers of seven straight. They have no reason to play hard here and the Cowboys will take care of business.

Last week they had the difficult task of facing Boise State. As a 33.5 point dog, they hung tough and loss 36-14.Wyoming is 11-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since 2002 when they covered by between 6 and 12.5 points last week, and aren’t a 23+ point dog (season>=2002 and 6<=p:ats margin<=12.5 and team= 'WYO' and rest<13 and line<23).

Last week, Colorado State was at home as well and lost to Air Force, 45-21. They were 13.5 point dogs in that game. Colorado is 0-12 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since 2000 after a game where they failed to cover by between 7 and 11.5 points, if the line of this game is not less than three points (team='COST' and season>=2000 and -11.5<=p:ats margin<=-7 and (line<=-3 or line>=3)).

Last time they faced the Cowboys, they lost to end last season, 44-0. Colorado St. is 0-7 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since November 2001 after they lost by more than a FG last game, if they allowed 37+ points last time they faced this team (team='COST' and date>=20011101 and p:margin<=-4 and Po:points>=37).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Wyoming 34, COLORADO STATE 20

4.5-STAR LSU -13 over Georgia – LSU is at the cusp of the national championship game and they aren’t going to stop now. LSU has only won by less than 13 once all season and that was against the #2 team in the country. Georgia is nothing special and won pose a problem here.

Generally teams that are nice favorites like this in the Conference Championship are so with reason. Teams are 10-0-1 ATS (14.0 ppg) in Conference Championship game history as between a 10.5 and 16 point underdog (game type='CH' and 16>=line>=10.5).

The total in this game is 46 and it has been games with lower totals where the Tigers have really thrived. LSU is 10-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since October 9, 2010 when they didn’t have extra rest last week and the total’s under 50 (team='LSU' and date>=20101009 and total<50 and p:rest<8). They are 2-6 ATS over that time when the total’s over 50.

The Bulldogs meanwhile do not play well as an underdog. Georgia is 0-8 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since 2008 as a dog of at least two points (team='GEO' and season>=2008 and line>=2).

They did play well last game, as they won 31-17 in Georgia Tech as a 5.5 point favorite. Georgia is 0-8 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since 2003 without an extra week’s rest and when not a 5+ point favorite after a game where they covered by at least eight points (team='GEO' and rest<13 and p:ats margin>=8 and line>-5 and season>=2002).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LSU 34, Georgia 10

.5-STAR SEATTLE -3.5 over Washington – Seattle is playing better than anyone would have realized a couple weeks ago. They still have the biggest home field advantage in football and it should be even better here now that they’ve won a few games. Look for a big win over a lousy Washington team here.
This game at Quest Field in on turf and that’s something Washington has struggled with. The Redskins are 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since November 23, 2008 on artificial turf vs a non-divisional opponent, if not following a Monday night game.
Washington is also flying cross country here after a heartbreaking 27-24 loss in overtime against Dallas. The League is 0-17 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since November 23, 2003 during November as a dog when they lost 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent while scoring at least a TD.
In the loss they scored 6.8 points more than expected. The League is 0-14 ATS (-14.2 ppg) since November 26, 2009 in November games following an overtime game where they scored more points than expected as less than 13 point favorites or a dog.
They were able to get to Tony Romo in that game with four sacks as they led 17-10 going into the fourth quarter. The Redskins are 0-15-1 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since October 8, 2008 in the first 15 weeks of the year and if not a TD+ dog, after a game they lead after three quarters while recorded at least four sacks.
Seattle won over the Rams last week, 24-7, on the road. Amazingly, St Louis never even got inside the red zone in that game with their TD coming from 30 yards out. The Seahawks are 11-0 ATS (7.5 ppg) since November 2009 at home after a game where their opponent was not held out of the endzone on 3+ red zone trips.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SEATTLE 27, Washington 10

4.5-STAR Penn State +14.5 over WISCONSIN - Penn State showed an us against the world mentality pulling off the upset at Ohio State last week and we think this team would fight again here. They have a nack for playing close games, win or lose, and we see another one coming.

The upperclassmen should have plenty of good feeling about playing against Wisconsin. While they have not met since 2008, that game was a 48-7 rout of the Badgers. Wisconsin is 0-8-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since 2007 when facing a team they scored between 7 and 21 points against last meeting, if they allowed 38 or more points or 13 or fewer points in that last game (season>=2007 and team= 'WIS' and 21>=P:points>=7 and (Po:points>=38 or Po:points<=13)).

Wisconsin was a big favorite last week as well, and won but did not cover against Illinois, 28-17, as a 14.5 point favorite. Wisconsin is 0-8 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since October 2003 when they failed to cover by four or fewer points last game as less than 21 point favorite (date>=20031001 and -4<=p:ats margin<=-0.5 and team= 'WIS' and p:line>-21).

They are known to struggled against big defenses such as the one the Nitany Lions have. Penn State is allowing just 13 points per game and has not allowed more than 27 all year. Wisconsin is 0-13 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since 2007 past game three of the season, when facing a team that has allowed 19 or fewer points per game on the season and scored less than 38 points last game (season>=2007 and game number>3 and 19>=Average(oo:points@o:team and o:season and oo:season=o:season) and team= 'WIS' and op:points<38).

They were seven point dogs at Ohio State last week and won, 20-14, setting up this showdown for the conference championship game. Penn State is 8-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since 2007 in the regular season with a total under 56 after a game where they covered by between 9.5 and 21 points (season>=2007 and team= 'PNST' and 21>=p:ats margin>=9.5 and game type='RS' and total<56).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: WISCONSIN 24, Penn State 17

5-STAR Carolina and Indianapolis Over 44 – This total is an absolute gift. The Panthers defense cannot stop anybody. They have allowed 30+ points five of the last seven week and 20+ in all seven. Meanwhile their offense can’t be stopped by many teams certainly will not be by Indianapolis. Look for a shootout here.
You can beat Carolina on the ground as they allow 4.79 yards per carry. The Colts are 10-0-1 OU (12.2 ppg) since September 18, 1994 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.
You can also beat Carolina through the air as they allow 12.52 per completion. The Colts are 8-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since December 15, 1996 as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date.
Last week was their worst effort yet as they lost to Detroit, 49-35. The Panthers are 6-0 OU (13.9 ppg) since November 16, 1997 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average on the road.
That game when over by 36 points as they allowed 21.5 points more than expected. The Panthers are 9-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since September 29, 1997 after a game where they allowed at least 14 points more than expected and the game went over by at least 10.
They led 27-14 at half before completely falling apart. The Panthers are 6-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since January 01, 2006 as a road favorite after a straight up loss. Also, the Panthers are 6-0 OU (11.0 ppg) since October 31, 2004 on the road after a loss in which they were winning at the half.
They get to face a Indy team here which is still searching for its first win. The Panthers are 6-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since September 15, 2002 as a favorite when facing a team with no wins after week 1.
They were on bye last week but allowed 3.2 points less than expected in a 17-3 loss to the Jaguars the game prior. The Colts are 11-0-1 OU (8.9 ppg) since 2009 after a game against an AFC team which they allowed less points than expected.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Carolina 34, INDIANAPOLIS 31

4-STAR NEW YORK over Philadelphia – These a team’s heading in different directions. And with Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin both very questionable at best, the best case scenario is a very scaled back offense for Philly. The worst is Vince Young. Expect New York to take care of this one and stick the fork into the Eagles.

Philadelphia blew yet another game last week, 21-17 to Arizona as a 14- point favorite. They had led 14-7 going in to the fourth quarter of that game. The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since December 24, 1994 as a dog after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter.

Despite all their struggled, Philly is still a team which has controlled the ball, with an average time of possession of 32:11 this year. The Giants are 10-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since September 19, 2004 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. Also, the Giants are 11-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) since 2004 when facing a divisional opponent that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time per game season-to-date.

New York faced a tough task last week and fell late in San Francisco, 27-20. They lost despite outgaining the 49ers by 90 yards. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (9-1 ppg) since January 02, 2005 as a favorite with a total under 50 the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent.

That game saw long sustained drives as New York had just 10 total in that game. The Giants are 6-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since December 26, 2004 after a game as a dog where they had at 10 or fewer drives.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW YORK 31, Philadelphia 17

4-STAR Buffalo over MIAMI – Let’s not carried away here. Two weeks ago, Buffalo would have been at least a 5-point favorite here and these are the exact same teams. The Bills are the desperate here and will get the win they need.

Buffalo needs to get back to its bread and butter, running the ball. They are averaging 5.2 yards per carry this year. The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since 2005 when hosting a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

Buffalo was a 6-point underdog last week and fell at Dallas, 44-7. The Bills are 9-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since October 30, 2005 as an away dog of less than 16 points when they were away dogs last game as well.

Buffalo committed four turnovers in that game. The Bills are 12-0-1 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 10, 2006 after a non-divisional game where they committed at least three turnovers.

They only had 25:28 time of possession in that game. The League is 12-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since November 23, 2008 during November on the road after a road game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time.

Miami had not won until two weeks ago but won each of those games by at least 11. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since November 12, 1995 when they won by double digits in each of the past two weeks.

In last week’s 20-9 win over Washington they punted only once. The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since December 2002 after a game where they punted three or fewer times and allowed less points than expected.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Buffalo 27, MIAMI 13

4.5-STAR San Diego over CHICAGO – It’s now or never for the Chargers. The AFC West is still right there for the taking and they are clearly the most talented team. Chicago was at its best last week while San Diego at its worst and you want to grab the value on the bounceback team here.

San Diego is now 4-5 and that is a make or break record for them. The Chargers are 11-0-2 ATS (9.0 ppg) since November 15, 1992 as a road dog when one game under 500.

They played last Thursday and lost to Oakland, 24-17. They got to the red zone twice, scoring just one TD. The Chargers are 18-0-1 ATS (10.6 ppg) since 2002 as a dog after a game as a favorite where they did not fail to score TDs on more than two trips to the red zone.

They were down 17-3 at halftime of that game and could not get to Carson Palmer, committing just one sack. The Chargers are 10-0 ATS (13.7 ppg) since October 2004 after a game where they had fewer than two sacks and trailed by at least a TD at halftime.

It was the fifth straight game where they allowed more points than expected. The Chargers are 8-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since October 19, 2003 on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games.

Chicago won last week, 37-13, as a three point favorite. The Bears are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since September 23, 2007 at home after a straight up win at home as a favorite.

Chicago forced six turnovers in that game while committing just one. The Bears are 0-11 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since December 12, 2004 after a game on grass where they had at least a +3 turnover margin.

They held Chicago to just 4-of-17 on third downs. The Bears are 0-9 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since December 31st, 2006 when they are off a win as a favorite in which they stopped their opponent on more than 75% of their third downs attempts.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Diego 27, CHICAGO 20

4.5-STAR ST LOUIS over Seattle – We’ve seen this from Seattle before. They will look great at home only to let people down on the road. St Louis is finally turning the corner and play well here.

Seattle upset Baltimore at home last week, 22-17. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since December 16, 2007 on the road after a straight up win.

They were a TD dog going into that game. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week.

Seattle was up even bigger at halftime, 19-7. The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-17.3 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a game where they led by double digits at halftime.

Turnovers were the big key to that game Baltimore committed three while Seattle did not have any. The Seahawks are 0-16 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since December 18, 2005 after a game where they led by at least a TD at half and had a positive turnover margin.

That made up for the 13 penalties which they committed. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since October 08, 2000 as a dog the week after in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average.

St Louis won last week 13-12. They were able to despite continued red zone struggles, getting just one TD in three trips. The Rams are 7-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since October 18, 2004 at home after a win where they failed to score TDs on at least two red zone attempts.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ST LOUIS 24, Seattle 13

4-STAR CAROLINA -3 over Tennessee - A week off is going to be huge for this Carolina team. Tennessee meanwhile has fallen apart and we think Cam Newton will really bury them here.

Tennessee lost at home last week, 24-17 to Cincinnati. The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-16.4 ppg) since October 23, 2005 as a road dog on grass after a straight up loss at home.

They committed seven penalties for 100 yards in that game. The League is 0-8 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 04, 2007 during November the week after a straight up loss in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties.

Tennessee was up 10 at half but committing the game's lone turnover was a big difference. The Titans are 0-10 ATS( -10.2 ppg) since 2004 after a game where they led at half and had a negative turnover margin.

Tennessee threw for 250 yards in that loss. The Titans are 0-9 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since December 19, 2004 after a game where they threw for at least 250 yards and lost. Meanwhile, the Titans are 0-15 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since December 2004 past week two when they are off a game in which their completion percentage was less than 70%, but they passed for at least 245 yards.

Carolina threw for 265 yards as well last game trying to overcome a early deficit in a 24-21 loss. The Panthers are 10-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since November 1998 after a game where they threw for at least 250 yards and trailed by at least a TD after one quarter.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CAROLINA 27, Tennessee 17

4.5-STAR New Orleans and Atlanta Over - New Orleans and Atlanta traditionally play high scoring games. With the lack of a Saints running game and the extra weapon of Julio Jones for Atlanta, we expect this year's version to be even higher scoring.

New Orleans defeated Tampa Bay last week, 27-16, as a nine point favorite. They led 17-3 at the half. The Saints are 12-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 2007 after a game where they led by at least 14 at half and covered. Also, the Saints are 9-0 OU (14.3 ppg) since October 14, 2001 as a favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home.

They moved the ball consistently picking up 25 first downs. The Saints are 12-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since November 2007 after a double digit win where they had at least 24 first downs.

Ten of those came on the ground as they rushed for 195 yards. The Saints are 9-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since October 22, 2000 within 3 of pick on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. Also, the Saints are 7-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since November 23, 2003 after a game as a road favorite when they ran for at least 10 first downs.

Drew Brees took a backseat at times but was still a very affective 27-of-36. The Saints are 11-0 OU (15.9 ppg) since September 17, 1989 as a road favorite when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home.

New Orleans has been known to score in road games that are similar to their surroundings. The Saints are 9-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since October 19, 2003 on the road on artificial turf after a straight up win at home.

Atlanta won last week in a easy game, 31-7. Indianapolis never had a goal to go attempt in that game. The Falcons are 6-0 OU (9.9 ppg) since November 18, 2007 after a road game where their opponent never had a goal to go.

Matt Ryan went a safe 14-of-24 in that game. The Falcons are 6-0 OU (10.3 ppg) since October 22, 1995 as a dog the week after on the road in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New Orleans 34, ATLANTA 24

4.5-STAR New England over NY JETS - New England got shocked last week and its two straight weeks they've fallen. The blue print on how to defeat them is out. However, the Jets don't have the personal in the passing game to do that. Look for New England to get back on track here.

New England was a nine-point favorite last week and lost 24-20 to the Giants. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (+17.0 ppg) since November 2002 when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week as long as they are not more than a 3-point favorite. Also, the Patriots are 7-0 ATS (13.7 ppg) since November 03, 2002 within 3 of pick on the road after a straight up loss.

New York meanwhile won last week, 27-11, as a pick in Buffalo. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since October 22, 2000 on the road off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.

New England never got to Eli Manning in last week's game as they did not record a sack. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since October 2006 after a game where they did not have a sack.

New England reached the red zone four times, scoring two touchdowns. The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (17.6 ppg) since November 2002 on the road after as a favorite where they did not fail to get TDs on more than two red zone attempts.

They had to attempt 49 passes in the loss. The Patriots are 8-0-2 ATS (7.5 ppg) since November 19, 1989 as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England 31, NEW YORK 20

4.5-STAR New Orleans pk over ATLANTA - New Orleans has been biding its time. Atlanta meanwhile has seemingly turned things around but in reality the schedule has just broke their way. The Saints are comfortable winning in Atlanta as they did last year.

Atlanta won last week as a TD favorite in Indianapolis, 31-7. The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-16.9 ppg) since November 09, 1992 as a home dog after a straight up win as a favorite.

It was the third straight game which they won and covered. The Falcons are 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since December 08, 2002 as a dog when they won and covered their last two games.

They both scored more points than expected and allowed less than expected in all three games. The Falcons are 0-7-1 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 04, 1990 as a dog when their dps was positive in their last three games.

This is the first time this season New Orleans and Atlanta had met. The Falcons are 0-8-1 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since October 16, 1994 as a home dog when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.

This is a huge game as they don't have another divisional matchup coming for four weeks. The League is 0-14 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 15, 2004 during November as a home dog on artificial turf vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

Look for Atlanta to take to the ground here facing a New Orleans team allowing a league high 5.33 yards per rush. The League is 0-11 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since November 06, 2005 during November as a home dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New Orleans 34, ATLANTA 24

4-STAR DALLAS over Seattle – Dallas is known for being able to easily handle bad teams. They’ve only played one this year and killed St. Louis. Seattle meanwhile struggles on the road and it will continue here.

After this game, Seattle returns home to face Baltimore next week while Dallas faced Buffalo last game. The Seahawks are 0-17-1 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since 2003 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent when they have a regular season home game vs another non-divisional opponent next. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 12-0-1 ATS (8.0 ppg) since November 22, 1998 during November as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

Seattle was at home last week, and lost to Cincinnati, 34-12. The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-16.6 ppg) since November 27, 2008 as a road dog between home games.

Seattle scored just one touchdown on three trips to the red zone and two goal to go attempts. The Seahawks are 0-12-1 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since October 7, 2007 on the road after a game where they failed to score TDs on at least two trips to the red zone. Also, the Seahawks are 0-12-1 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since September 16, 2007 on the road after a game where they failed to score a TD on a goal to go attempt.

Seattle has punted more times than any other of the league, averaging 6.57 per game. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since October 12, 2003 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Dallas lost to Philadelphia last week, 34-7. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since November 12, 2000 after a straight up loss on the road versus the Eagles.

They picked up just 12 first downs in that game and were 3-of-10 on third downs. The Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 2003 as a favorite after a game as an away dog last week where they converted less than 33% of their first down attempts.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DALLAS 38, Seattle 14

4-STAR Tampa Bay +8 over NEW ORLEANS – There is just something about this New Orleans and Tampa Bay matchup. For whatever reason, the Bucs play their best football inside the Superdome. Since 2003, they have won six of these last eight road matchups, including the last two seasons. Even the New Orleans wins have been super close as the Saints have not beat Tampa Bay at home by a TD or more since 1991, spanning 12 matchups. We expect another close game here.

This is a battle for first place in the NFC South as New Orleans is 5-3 with Tampa a half game back at 4-3. The Saints are 0-17 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since December 24, 2000 at home when facing a divisional opponent that has a worse record.

This version of Tampa Bay has consistently played its best football in domes. The Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since November 29, 2009 on the road on artificial turf.

Tampa Bay has the added bonus of coming off a bye after losing in London the week prior, 24-18 to Chicago. The Buccaneers are 9-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) since 1994 after a straight up loss versus the Bears in which they trailed at the end of the first quarter.

Chicago won the time of possession battle in that game with over 33 minutes as they had led, 14-5, at halftime. The Buccaneers are 11-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since October 14, 2007 after a game where they trailed at halftime and controlled the ball for less than 28 minutes.

Following this game, New Orleans has another big road showdown next week at Atlanta. The Saints are 0-14 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since 1989 as a 6+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.

Last week, the Saints were huge 14-point favorites at St. Louis and lost, 31-21. The Saints are 0-9 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since December 13, 2009 following an NFC game where they were 7+ point favorites.

The place where Tampa Bay has been beat in on the ground, but New Orleans faced the worst run defense in the league last week and did nothing on the ground. The Saints are 0-10 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since October 11, 1992 as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 27, Tampa Bay 24

4.5-STAR Denver over OAKLAND – These teams are practically the same team. They both have bad quarterbacks, shaky pass defenses, and without Darren McFadden, a poor rushing game. So why one would lay 8.5 points to the other is unbelievable. Take this gift here.

Denver’s turn to get destroyed was last week, as they fell to Detroit, 45-10. The League is 15-0 ATS (5.7 ppg) since November 15, 1992 during November in Sunday game as a road 7-12 point dog when they lost by 21+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent.

Denver has been unable to keep Tim Tebow upright as they have allowed at least six sacks each of the past two weeks. The Broncos are 9-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 06, 1992 as a dog when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks and lost or won by less than a FG last week.

Oakland meanwhile, was off last week. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since November 02, 2003 the week after their bye.

They were shutout last game against Kansas City, 28-0, the second straight time they scored less than expected. The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 14, 1997 as a favorite when their dps was negative in their last two games, and they were expected to score less than 24 points last game.

Going into that game, Oakland was a 3.5 point favorite. The Raiders are 0-12 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since December 30, 2001 after a game where they were at least a 3-point favorite and failed to cover by at least a TD.

Oakland did pick up 18 first downs in that game, and three came on penalties. The Raiders are 0-17 ATS (-9.3) after a loss in which they got at least three first downs by their opponent's penalty.

Denver has been done in by turnovers this year, committing 2.29 per game. The Raiders are 0-12 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since October 29, 2000 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 17, OAKLAND 14

4.5-STAR Denver and Oakland Under – We were floored when this total came out. How are these teams going to generate offense? The defenses in this game can only score so much and it’s not going to be enough to send this one over.

Denver was brutal in their last game, losing 45-10. Tim Tebow was just 18 of 39 in that game. The League is 0-13 OU (-13.0 ppg) since October 07, 2002 as a road 7+ dog, not on Monday night or the last week of the season, the week after at home as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.

They could not move the ball with any consistency, going just 2-of-14 on third downs. The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-10.5 ppg) since October 2004 after a game at home where they converted less than 25% of their first downs.

In the season opener, Oakland defeated Denver, 23-20. Three turnovers killed them in that game. The Broncos are 0-10 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 23, 1994 vs a team they lost to in their first match-up while committing at least three turnovers.

Oakland is coming off its bye week last week. The Raiders are 0-9 OU (-6.7 ppg) since September 23, 2001 the week after their bye if its past week four.

Before the bye, Oakland got destroyed by Kansas City, 28-0. The Raiders are 0-11 OU (-6.6 ppg) since 1996 after a game against the Chiefs which they trailed by at least a TD at half.

Oakland held the ball for just 26:23 in that game. The Raiders are 0-16 OU (-8.5 ppg) since November 2006 after a home game where they did not control the time of possession and the teams combined for more than six points in the first three quarters.

Among other things, Oakland did not record a sack in that game. The Raiders are 0-12 OU (-12.5 ppg) since December 12, 2004 after a Sunday game where they did not record a sack and allowed no more than 220 rushing yards.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 17, OAKLAND 14

4.5-STAR New York +9 over NEW ENGLAND – The game plan for how to play with the Patriots had been laid out. Teams have previously tried to keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands on the ground but you can really just do it through the air. Eli Manning is good enough to move the ball on the Pats and should make a game of this.

Both these teams sit at 5-2 after New York won last week, 20-17 over Miami. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since October 19, 1997 as a road dog versus any team with the same record after a straight up win.

It was a ball control effort with New York not committing any turnovers. The Giants are 12-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since October 12, 1997 as a dog the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers.

As such, they had only 10 drives in the game. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since November 10, 2002 on the road after a win where they had 10 or less drives.

Miami threw for just 101 yards in that game while New York had 344. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (15.6 ppg) since September 17, 2000 as a dog when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win.

New England meanwhile threw for just 170 yards last week in a loss to Pittsburgh. The League is 0-9 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since November 17, 1991 during November as a 7+ favorite when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss.

New England was a three-point favorite on the road in that game. The Patriots are 0-7-1 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since November 07, 2005 during November at home after playing as a favorite.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 28, New York 27

4-STAR Missouri +2.5 over BAYLOR – Baylor was a nice story early in the season. However they just aren’t good enough to compete with top half Big 12 teams. Despite some close loss, Missouri is still one of those teams and we see them getting the best of the Bears.

At 4-3 and losers of two straight, this is a real turning point game for the Bears. Baylor is 0-15 ATS (-14.2 ppg) since 2005 when their winning percentage is between 44 and 65 percent in game four and beyond (65>=WP>=43 and season>=2005 and game number>=4 and team= 'BAY').

The total in this game is sky high at 73 and these are the kind of games which their defense gets exposed. Baylor is 0-11 ATS (-16.0 ppg) in database totals history (since 2006) with a total of at least 60.5 as between a TD favorite and 17 point dog (team='BAY' and total>=60.5 and 17>=line>=-7).

The total of 81.5 in their last game was the highest in database history and Baylor got smoked, 59-24 by Oklahoma State. Baylor is 0-7 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since 2005 as between a 4 point favorite and 11 point dog when they lost by 17+ last game (team='BAY' and season>=2005 and p:margin<=-17 and 11>=line>=-4).

Missouri meanwhile, plays well as a small dog. Missouri is 9-0 ATS (14.7 ppg) since 2004 as between a pick and 4.5 point dog when they have normal rest for their next game or it’s the last game of the season(team= 'MIZ' and season>=2004 and 4.5>=line>=0 and ats margin>0).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Missouri 38, BAYLOR 31

4-STAR Michigan -4 over IOWA – The only teams Michigan can’t handle are elite defenses. Iowa has shown they don’t have one of those. They mailed one in last week against a miserable Minnesota team and we don’t see them rebounding here.

Facing the worst team in the Big Ten and one of the worst in FBS football, Iowa was shocked last week, 22-21 against Minnesota. Iowa is 0-11-1 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since 2005 if not more than an eight point dog, when they allowed between 20 and 24 points last game (20<=po:points<=24 and season>=2005 and team= 'IOWA' and line<8).

Michigan meanwhile used a week off to regroup and keep its streak of defeating also-rans going, as they defeated Purdue, 36-14 as a 14-point favorite. Michigan is 10-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since 2006 after a game which they won by at least 14 points as a favorite of less than 21 points, if they are not a 30+ point favorite here and did not fail to cover by 21+ last time they faced this team (team='MICH' and season>=2006 and line>-30 and p:margin>=14 and -21-21).

When these teams met last year it was an offense explosion with Iowa winning, 38-28. Iowa is 0-8 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since November 8 ,2003 when facing a team they allowed between 28 and 34 points to last meeting (34>=Po:points>=28 and date>=20031108 and team= 'IOWA').

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Michigan 38, IOWA 21

4.5-STAR ALABAMA over Lsu – No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups are often times not that close. The thing to do in these games is to just take the better team and trust them laying the points. While Lsu is no. 1, Alabama is the clear better team. We feel comfortable laying these points.

Both these teams are coming into this game with an extra week of rest and that has a huge effect on each team. Alabama is 12-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since 1991 with extra rest if they have at least eight wins and no more than one loss on the season and won or lost by just a point last game (team='ALA' and rest>6 and season>=1991 and wins>=8 and losses<=1 and p:margin>=-1). Meanwhile, LSU is 0-16-1 ATS (-13.4 ppg) in database history (since 1980) between games 6 and 11 if their opponent has extra rest and didn’t lose by 19+ last game, if LSU has at least five wins and didn’t lose by a TD plus last game (team='LSU' and o:rest>6 and 6<=game number<=11 and op:margin>-19 and wins>=5 and p:margin>-7).

The Crimson Tide is a dyamic offense, averaging 38.4 point per game. LSU is 0-15 ATS (-10.1 ppg)since 1998 in the regular season when their opponent is in at least its sixth game of the year and is scoring more than 35 points per game (season>=1998 and oA(points)>35 and team= 'LSU' and o:game number>=6 and game type= 'RS').

Last game, the Crimson Tide defeated Tennessee, 37-6. They were 29-pint favorites in that game. Alabama is 11-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since 2007 when they covered by single digits last week and aren’t favored by 33+ (season>=2007 and 0.5<=p:ats margin<=9.5 and team= 'ALA' and line>-33).

Last year’s matchup saw Tigers get the best of it, 24-21. LSU is 0-14 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since 1987 when facing a conference team they beat by 3-5 points last meeting while scoring no more than 25 points (season>=1987 and 3<=P:margin<=5 and team= 'LSU' and P:points<=25 and conference=o:conference).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ALABAMA 27, Lsu 13

4-STAR MICHIGAN over Purdue – As we saw last game, Michigan is not going to be able to beat really great defensive team or overall top teams. However, they are set up to beat up on teams worse than them. Despite two recent solid performances, that is Purdue and the Wolverines will handle business here with an extra rest of rest.

Michigan lost its first game of the season in that last game at Michigan State, 28-14. Purdue is 0-7 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since 2002 when facing a team which is coming off its first loss of the season last game and it was by at least 13 points (team='PUR' and o:losses=1 and season>=2002 and op:margin<=-13).

Purdue meanwhile, pulled off its biggest win of the season last week, 21-14 over Illinois. Purdue is 0-9 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since 2007 when they won by between 4 and 17 last game (team='PUR' and season>=2007 and 17>=p:margin>=4).

A much weaker Michigan team was able to still beat up on Purdue last season on the road, 27-16. Purdue is 0-14-2 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since in the first 10 games of the year, when playing a team they scored 14-16 points against last meeting (16>=P:points>=14 and team= 'PUR' and game number<11 and season>=1984). Also, Michigan is 9-0-1 ATS (11.8 ppg) since 2005 if not a 20+ point dog, when facing a team they allowed between 14 and 21 points to last meeting, if they allowed between 10 and 28 points last game and that was with normal rest.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 38, Purdue 17

4.5-STAR Bowling Green -3.5 over KENT STATE – Kent State is possibly the worst offensive team in NCAA Football and they need to be giving more points to anybody. This Bowling Green team is hit or miss but they can at least score points and that’s enough.

Last game was a real low for Kent State as they lost to Miami of Ohio at home, 9-3. Kent St. is 0-9 ATS (-17.7 ppg) since November 2005 when they lost by between 4 and 12 last game and the line was not less than 3 for either team (team='KEST' and -12<=p:margin<=-4 and date>=20051101 and (p:line>=3 or p:line<=-3)).

It was a brutal offensive game but nothing unusual for this season. They are averaging just 7 point per game against FBS teams this year. Kent St. is 0-14-2 ATS (-14.7ppg) since September 30, 1995 in Saturday games when they scored six points or fewer on a Saturday, last game and weren’t 34+ point dogs (date>=19950930 and p:points<=6 and team= 'KEST' and p:line<34 and p:day= 'Saturday' and day='Saturday'). More recently, Kent St. is 0-15-1 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since October 2005 in the first 11 games of the year, when they scored 13 or fewer points on a Saturday last game (date>=20051001 and p:points<=13 and team= 'KEST' and p:day= 'Saturday' and game number<12).

Bowling Green is going to be eyeing some serious revenge here after they lost to Kent State, 30-6 last year. Kent St. is 0-11 ATS (-19.1 ppg) since 2002 when facing a team they allowed less than 20 points to last meeting last season, between 356 and 391 days ago (Po:points<20 and season>=2002 and team= 'KEST' and 391>=Prest>=356).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Bowling Green 24, KENT STATE 10

4.5-STAR CAROLINA -3 over Minnesota –REALLY!?!? You really think Carolina and Minnesota are even teams? We aren’t buying this for one second. We have obviously liked the Panthers all season but did not realize just how profitable those early season misses would keep lines at when they started playing easier team. There is no better example than this.

Minnesota lost last week, 33-27 to Green Bay at home. The Vikings are 0-9 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since October 28, 2001 during October as a dog after playing at home.

Minnesota led 17-13 at halftime, but trailed 33-17 after the third quarter. The Vikings are 0-12 ATS (-5.7 ppg) since September 29, 1996 after a game where they led at halftime and trailed after three quarters.

The total in that game was 46.5. The Vikings are 0-12 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 31, 2004 in October after a Sunday game where the total was 42.5 or greater.

Last week, Carolina defeated Washington 33-20. It was a different sort of game for Carolina with Cam Newton playing a ball control game. The Panthers are 9-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 28, 2003 as a favorite the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average and they threw for less than four passing TDs.

They rushed the ball 37 times for 175 yards in that game and did not commit any turnovers. The League is 15-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since November 2009 with a total of at least 36 and if they are not more than a 3 point favorite, after a game where they rushed for between 155 and 183 yards and did not commit any turnovers.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CAROLINA 31, Minnesota 13

4-STAR Jacksonville and Houston Over 40.5 – We know Jacksonville hasn’t scored more than 13 points in their last two games. But those came against Baltimore and Pittsburgh’s defense. Blaine Gabbert has shown that he can hold his own even against those defense, so there is no reason to think he can put up a decent amount of points against a decent defense such as Houston. Meanwhile the Houston offense is in sync and should be in line for another strong game in this one.

Against Baltimore in that Monday night game, Jacksonville took to the run, as they had 42 carries. The Jaguars are 9-0 OU (11.0 ppg) since November 05, 2006 the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.

Both teams really struggled to sustain drives, with Jacksonville going just 2-of-16 on third downs. The Jaguars are 6-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since November 23, 2008 after a home game where they converted at least 33% of their third down attempts

This isn’t the first time Jacksonville’s played a game like this against Baltimore, and the totals have overreacted to that as well. The Jaguars are 6-0 OU (8.5 ppg) since October 16, 2000 after playing the Ravens.

Houston meanwhile, won their last game in completely different fashion, defeating Tennessee, 41-7. They were three point dogs in that game, expected to score 20.5 points. The Texans are 8-0 OU (9.7 ppg) since December 15, 2002 after a game where they scored at least 10 points more than expected and covered.

Amazingly they were so efficient with the scoring that they just 10 drives in that game. The Texans are 7-0 OU (16.1 ppg) since October 9, 2005 at home after a road game where they had 10 or fewer drives.

Houston did not have a turnover in that game and has been great at keeping the ball safe all season with just six turnovers so far. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since October 01, 2006 on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: HOUSTON 28, Jacksonville 24

4-STAR New England -2.5 over PITTSBURGH – New England is a team which has Pittsburgh’s number. They have won four of the past five meetings with the Steelers dating back to 2004. Beyond one hiccup in 2008, the Pats just know how to score on Pittsburgh and we think they’ll do enough of that for another win in this one.

The Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for Pittsburgh and that’s a big advantage when you have Bill Belichick is your head coach. However it has been a huge advantage for any road favorite in their next game. The League is 17-0-1 ATS (12.3 ppg) since October 22, 2007 as a road favorite the week after their regular season bye.

New England’s last game was their closest win of the season, 20-16 over Dallas. It was a dog fight where they did not cover the seven point spread. One key was penalities as Dallas had 10 while New England committed only five. The Patriots are 11-0-1 ATS (14.9 ppg) since October 15, 1995 in October after a game where they failed to cover and committed five or fewer penalties.

Pittsburgh is coming off a strong 32-20 win over Arizona on the road last game. The Steelers are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since September 28, 2003 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road.

Pittsburgh scored three TDs, three FGs and a safety to get to those 32 points. However, they did not get inside the redzone on any of those three field goal makes, going 2-for-2 on red zone attempts. The Steelers are 0-8 (-8.1 ppg) since December 30, 2007 after a win as an away favorite where their opponent failed on no more than two red zone attempts.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England 31, PITTSBURGH 21

4-STAR PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – The Eagles are a team that needed this bye like no other. They were in chaos and the week off can do nothing but good. The talent is still there and it should show in this one.

Dallas cruised to a win last week, 34-7, over a St Louis team in disarray. The Cowboys are 0-18 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since January 1994 on the road off a TD+ win last week in which they were up by at least a TD at the half and were not outscored in the fourth quarter. Also, the Cowboys are 0-11 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since January 1994 on the road off a win by more than 21 points.

They were 13-point favorites in that game and they cruised to the win while picked up 24 first downs to those 34 points. The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since November 13, 1994 after a game where they were at least a double digit favorite and picked up at least 24 first downs. Also,the Cowboys are 0-9 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 10, 1999 during October the week after scoring 34+ points.

Philadelphia played their rivals the Redskins last game and they won, 20-13. The Eagles are 9-0 ATS (16.9 ppg) since December 17, 2006 when they faced the Redskins last game.

It was the fourth straight game that they scored less than expected. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when their dps was negative in their last three games.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 34, Dallas 24

4-STAR Detroit over DENVER – Did anybody actually watch Tim Tebow play last week? For 57 minutes it was brutal. Add in that Willis McGahee is out and how is Denver going to move the ball exactly. They aren’t and Detroit should finally get back on track here.

Denver came back with 15 points late in that 18-15 win over Miami. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 31, 2006 at home when they won by 1-3 points last week.

Denver would not have even had that comeback chance if they had not held Miami to three field goals with their one TD. The Broncos are 0-8 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 22, 2006 at home after a game as a dog where their opponent failed to score TDs on at least two red zone attempts.

The Broncos offense struggled all game, going just 4-of-16 on third down attempts. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since December 2005 after a game as an away dog when they picked up less than 33% of first downs.

As such each team had many possessions with Denver having 15. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS (-14.2 ppg) since December 19, 2004 after a win where they had at least 14 drives.

Detroit’s offense has been letting them down in this streak, as they have failed to score as many points as expected the last three games. The Lions are 11-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since October 25, 1992 on the road when their dps was negative in their last three games.

These as the kind of non-pressure games which are perfect for Detroit. The Lions are 8-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since October 09, 2005 during October within 3 of pick vs a non-divisional opponent.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit 31, DENVER 13

4.5-STAR Baltimore and Arizona Over 43 – Arizona has got to at least 43 points in at least five of their six games this season. The only one which did not was against an inept offense in Seattle. Look for another game much like last week’s against Pittsburgh.

In that game, the Steelers defeated them 32-20. The Cardinals are 17-0-1 OU (9.8 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a road dog after a straight up loss in which they did not lead by double digits after three quarters.

They had trouble holding the ball in that game, with just 24:13 time of possession. The Cardinals are 13-0 OU (8.6 ppg) since December 07, 2003 on the road the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.

Even still they scored TDs on both their trips inside the red zone in that game. The Cardinals are 7-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since January 10, 2010 after a game where they converted all their red zone attempts into TDs.

They are facing a team in Baltimore which has gotten away from its bread and butter. They are throwing 35.2 times per game while running just 26.0 times. The Cardinals are 19-0-1 OU (7.9 ppg) since October 18, 1998 on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.1 and their rushing attempts per game is less than 28.5.

Baltimore was shocked on Monday night, 12-7, against Jacksonville. It would have been worse if Jacksonville had not been forced to settle for four field goals despite getting to the red zone three times. The Ravens are 6-0 OU (10.9 ppg) since December 30, 2007 after a loss where their opponent failed to score on at least three red zone TDs.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 34, Arizona 17

4.5-STAR BUFFALO -4.5 over Washington – By now the Bills are used to playing in Toronto and it is still a home-field advantage. The Redskins are ready to free fall and because of their decent record and wins, the lines and anticipating that just yet.

This is the time of the season where Washington has struggled in the past. The Redskins are 0-11-2 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since October 15, 2006 after a conference game between weeks five and eight last game.

Last week, they lost in Carolina, 33-20. They did sack Cam Newton four times in that game. The Redskins are 0-8-2 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since October 08, 2000 during October after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

However, penalties really killed the Skins in that one as they committed 13 totaling 105 yards. The League is 0-10 ATS (-14.6 ppg) since November 07, 2010 the week after as a dog in which they benefited from 100+ yards of penalties.

Buffalo was off last week, but two weeks ago fell at the Giants, 27-24. Two critical turnovers were the difference in that game. The Bills are 9-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 2007 after a non-divisional game where they had a turnover margin of at least -2.

Keeping them in that game however were two times where they stopped Buffalo after they had first and goal attempts. The Bills are 16-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) since 2002 when they are off a game as an away dog in which they stopped their opponent on at least one goal-to-goal and did not allow 500+ yards of offense.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BUFFALO 31 Washington 17

4.5-STAR Maryland +18 over FLORIDA STATE – Taking away a week three collapse against Temple and Maryland has actually played pretty well this season. They did not lose by more than 11 to West Virginia, Georgia Tech or Clemson. Florida State is not better than any of those teams so we would not expect this one to be a blowout either.

The Seminoles finally snapped their three game skid last week, defeating Duke, 41-16. Florida St. is 0-11 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since October 2005 at home when they won by 20+ last game if they did not lose by 30+ if they had a game two games ago (date>=20051001 and 20<=p:margin and team= 'FLST' and H and (game number=2 or pp:margin>-30)).

They picked up plenty of big plays on offense in that game, going for 481 total yards. Florida St. is 0-14 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since September 13, 2003 when they scored between 35 and 42 points last game and it wasn’t at a neutral site (35<=p:points<=42 and date>=20030913 and team= 'FLST' and (p:H or p:A)). Also, Florida St. is 0-12 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since in Saturday games since October 2005 when they scored at least 41 points last game (team= 'FLST' and date>=20051001 and p:points>=41 and day=Saturday).

They were just 12.5 point favorites in that game which makes this line seem even more strange since Maryland is a much better team than Duke. Florida St. is 0-10 ATS (-16.9ppg) since 2003 when they covered by 12.5+ last game and scored at least 35 points (date>=20031001 and 12.5<=p:ats margin and team= 'FLST' and p:points>=35).

Last week, Maryland hung tough against undefeated Clemson, falling 56-45 in a shootout. Maryland is 10-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since October 23, 2004 after a game where they lost by between 7 and 14 if two games ago was not decided by four points or less (team='MARY' and date>=20041023 and -14<=p:margin<=-7 and (pp:margin>4 or pp:margin<-4).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: FLORIDA ST 31, Maryland 27

4-STAR CLEVELAND -3 over Seattle – Don’t let just one week fool you about Seattle’s team. They are good at home and terrible on the road. They snuck up on the Giants last game but won’t against a Browns team that absolutely needs this win. We think they will get it here.

Seattle was a 9.5-point underdog going into that game against New York and won outright, 36-25. The Seahawks are 0-20 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since September 21, 2003 after a non-Monday night game where they covered by at least 13.5 points.

They scored 19 points more than expected in that game. The Seahawks are 0-17 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since December 1998 vs a non-divisional opponent after a TD+ win in which they scored at least ten points more than expected.

That was the second straight game like that as they scored 10.8 points more than expected the game prior to that in a loss to Atlanta. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since December 07, 2003 on the road when their dps was positive in their last two games.

New York scored 1.5 points less than expected in that game. The Seahawks are 0-12 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 18, 2005 after scoring 28+ points and allowing less points than expected.

Even while scoring 36 points, Seattle was just 2-of-4 scoring in touchdowns when getting into the red zone. The Seahawks are 0-12 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since October 2007 after an away game where they failed on at least two red zone attempts.

Seattle is now coming off their bye and it hasn’t helped them the way some other teams have. The Seahawks are 0-8 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since October 17, 1999 within 3 of pick the week after their bye.

Cleveland lost their last game, 24-17, in Oakland as a 7-point dog with a total of 44.5. The Browns are 11-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) since December 16, 1990 after they allowed 21+ points with a total of at least 44.5 More recently, the Browns are 9-0 ATS (4.6 ppg) since December 14, 2003 when they lost a game with a total of at least 44.5 last game.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 24, Seattle 13

4.5 -STAR Kansas City over OAKLAND – Carson Palmer, are you kidding me? While this trade might help the Raiders in week 14, playing Palmer mere days after his retirement is insane. Although if they go to Kyle Boller, and we are guessing at some point in this game they will have to, it’s not all that better of an option. They were able to hold on against Cleveland last week but the Browns were terrible in that game and the Kansas City team has finally started coming around.

Kansas City is coming off their bye but before that, they defeated the Colts, 28-24. The Chiefs are 9-0-1 ATS (4.8 ppg) in October games since October 29, 2000 after a game where they scored at least 28 points and allowed at least 21.

They had to punt six times, and did not record a single sack, but did not settle when they had scoring chances, getting 4 TDs and no FGs. The Chiefs are 9-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) since October 11th, 2009 when they are off a game which wasn’t the season opener in which they punted at least six times and recorded fewer than three sacks.

They held the ball for 33:07 in that game and it was a refreshing change for them as on the season they have average just 27:21 time of possession. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since December 16, 2000 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date.

Oakland won their last game, 24-17, as a 7-point favorite over Cleveland. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since October 20, 2002 after playing as a TD+ favorite.

Without Jason Campbell for most of that game, they threw for just 178 yards after throwing for 344 and 184 the two weeks prior. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since October 25, 1992 during October at home when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Kansas City 24, OAKLAND 17

4.5-STAR Pittsburgh/Arizona Over 43.5 – The Steelers offense hasn’t been as explosive as they can be but the weapons are still there. Arizona’s defense has been picked apart by the Giants and Vikings the past two weeks, giving up more than 30 points in each game, and with those kind of totals the Steelers alone can get close to this total.

This is third of a middle of four non-divisional games for Arizona, and the Cardinals have struggled in the first two. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since November 11, 2007 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.

The last one was a real rough game, as they fell to Minnesota, 34-10, as a 3 point dog. They allowed 10.2 points more than expected in that game. The Cardinals are 12-0-1 OU (12.9 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a Sunday game where they allowed at least 10 points more than expected.

It was an all around bad game but turnovers particularly hurt them as they committed four. The Cardinals 8-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since December 2004 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points and committed at least four turnovers. Recently, the Cardinals are 8-0 OU (16.6 ppg) since November 2009 after a game where they committed at least three turnovers and their opponent did not commit 3+ turnovers.

Pittsburgh is coming off a defensive struggle in a 17-13 win against Jacksonville. Their passing game struggled to get going, as they were just 12-of-23 on Sunday. The Steelers are 10-0 OU (13.9 ppg) since December 20, 2007 as a favorite the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.

Jacksonville’s passing game was even worse in that game, accounting for just 76 yards. The Steelers are 6-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since November 05, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 31, ARIZONA 24

5-STAR San Diego over NY JETS – Our eyes were just lit up like Christmas trees when this line came out. There isn’t much Vegas can do it about it but that is your game. The New York Jets have not played a good football game all year. The final score last week against Miami is simply masking how they played in that game. It a game with short rest for the Jets and coming off a bye for San Diego we love the Chargers here.

The one area of the game where San Diego is not great is run defense, allowing 4.62 yards per carry. You might think that would be to the advantage of New York but the Jets are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since October 15, 2006 between weeks 3 and 9 when facing a team that has allowed at least 4.5 yards per carry.

San Diego hasn’t played to their full potential this season, and that includes a 29-24 win in Denver the week before their bye. The Chargers are 10-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since January 20, 2008 after a win where they allowed at least 21 points.

They allowed 2.5 points more than expected to Denver in that game. The Chargers are 9-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) since October 17, 2004 as a dog past week two the week after a win in which their DPA was positive.

San Diego committed two turnovers which kept Denver in that game while the Broncos committed one. The Chargers are 11-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since October 20, 2002 past week two if not more than a five point favorite, after a game as a favorite where they had a negative turnover margin and committed more than one turnover.

Third downs were huge in that game, with San Diego going 8-of-16 and Denver just 2-of-9. The Chargers are 12-0-1 (9.8 ppg) since October 17, 2004 after a game where they weren’t favored by 3+ points, if they picked up at least 50% of their third down attempts and rushed for at least 70 yards.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Diego 31, NY JETS 13

4-STAR ST LOUIS over Texas – Chris Carpenter is on a run of postseason unlike many which we’ve ever seen. At home in particular, that should carry on in the World Series. Texas is going to be down a key bat here and while the Rangers surely have a strong offense, it’s not any different than the ones he has just rolled through in Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
It was a wild game which got St Louis to the world series as they defeated Milwaukee, 12-6, in game six of the NLCS. The Cardinals are 42-20 since August 21, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1962.
Their pitching was far from terrible in that game however, as they allowed just seven hits and Milwaukee stranded just five men on base individually all game. The Cardinals are 11-3 since April 19, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $693.
Milwaukee starter Shaun Marcum allowed four runs in just a single inning of work in the biggest game of his career. The Cardinals are 13-2 since June 15, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter win for a net profit of $1000.
That was the second straight game they jumped out to an early lead and led the entire way. The Cardinals are 12-5 since June 05, 2010 at home when they are off two wins in which they never trailed for a net profit of $570.
Carpenter didn’t have his A stuff in his NLCS start, yet still gutted out five innings to pick up the win over Milwaukee. The Cardinals are 16-2 since July 01, 2005 when Chris Carpenter starts at home after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1145.
Postseason or otherwise, Carpenter has been great when opening a series. The Cardinals are 52-21 since May 04, 2004 when Chris Carpenter starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $2186.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ST LOUIS 5, Texas 3

RUTGERS over Navy

Rutgers is 12-0-1 ATS (17.9 ppg) since 2006 between games 4 and 11, as between a 6 point favorite and 10 point dog, when they allowed between 10 and 26 points last game (10<=po:points<=26 and season>=2006 and team= 'RUT' and 11>=game number>=4 and 10>=line>-6).

4-STAR IOWA -6.5 over Northwestern – Iowa has had trouble gelling all season. But they do have the talent on board to do it. Meanwhile we’ve seen Northwestern’s top speed and it’s not all that impressive. Look for the Hawkeyes to get back on track here after a wakeup call against Penn State last week.

Iowa lost last week, in a game which their offense just could not get going, 13-3 to Penn State. Iowa is 10-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since 2000 when they lost by between 7 and 13 last game (season>=2000 and -13<=p:margin<=-7 and team= 'IOWA').

This line is in a sweet spot for the Hawkeyes where they handle games as small favorites easier than expected. Iowa is 12-0-1 (14.5 ppg) since 2007 past game two, when they are a favorite of a TD or less, or a 1 point dog if their opponent is not off a win as an underdog(season>=2007 and game number>2 and -7<=line<=1 and team= 'IOWA' and (op:F or op:L))).

They are going to be ready for this one, as Northwestern upset them last year, 21-17, as 10-point underdogs. Northwestern is 0-6 (10.5 ppg) since 2005 when facing a team they scored 21 points against last meeting (team='NORW' and season>=2005 and P:points=21). Also, Northwestern is 0-6 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since November 2005 when facing a team they beat by between 2 and 6 points last meeting in the last 400 days (team='NORW' and date>=20051101 and 6>=P:margin>=2 and Prest<=400).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: IOWA 27, Northwestern 13

4-STAR Michigan over MICHIGAN STATE - Michigan State only has one win over a decent team this year, and that was last game at Ohio State. If you watched that game, you know it was anything but decent as both teams played miserably in that game. They lost to a Notre Dame team which Michgan beat by 18 and we think they lose here as well.

Michigan State is coming off that road win, but it is not something they build on. Michigan St is 0-7 ATS (-18.4 ppg) since 2008 coming off a road win where the total was under 64 (team= 'MCST' and p:AW and season>=2008 and p:total<64).

They also don’t do well off games which were extremely tight. Michigan State is 0-9 ATS (-19.6 ppg) since 1996 following a game decided by 3 points or less, if they were not more than 3 point favorites for that game or 7 point favorites for this game (team='MCST' and season>=1996 and -3<=p:margin<=3 and p:line>=-3 and line>=-7).

The Wolverines meanwhile were tested early ultimately dominated Northwestern, 42-24 last week on the road. Michigan is 10-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since September 16, 2006 after a game which they won by at least 14 points as a favorite of less than 21 points, if they are not a 30+ point favorite here (team='MICH' and date>=20060916 and line>-30 and p:margin>=14 and -21
Michigan hasn’t faced a complete creampuff in the schedule yet except Minnesota and are 6-0 with only one game decided by less than 18 points.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Michigan 38, MICHIGAN STATE 28

4.5-STAR PENN STATE over Purdue – Purdue’s thrashing over Minnesota last week is really masking how bad this team in. It’s just that Minnesota would be bad if they were playing in the MAC this year, not that the Boilermakers have things going. This is the same team that got killed at home by Notre Dame, lost at Rice, and barely beat Middle Tennessee at home. Penn State should kill teams like this.

Penn State moved to 5-1 on the year, but covered their first game all season last week with a nice 13-3 win over Iowa. Penn St. is 12-0 ATS (13.1ppg) since 2000 in game three and beyond, as a favorite when they won by between 10 and 20 points last game (season>=2000 and 10<=p:margin<=20 and team= 'PNST' and game number>=3 and F).

Purdue meanwhile rolled through Minnesota last week, keyed by offense, 45-17. Purdue is 0-11 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since 2004 with less than seven losses on the season and facing a team not off a 20+ point loss, after scoring between 29 and 49 points, while allowing more than 10 if they weren’t a 14+ point favorite (team='PUR' and season>=2004 and 49>=p:points>=29 and po:points>10 and p:line>-14 and losses<7 and op:margin>-20).

The Boilermakers are going to run into a stout Penn St. defense here which has allowed just 63 total points through six games. Purdue is 0-7 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since 1996 when facing a team which has allowed 10.5 or fewer points per game on average (season>=1996 and 10>=Average(oo:points@o:team and o:season and oo:season=o:season) and team= 'PUR').

These teams haven’t met since 2008, but that defense gave Purdue fits then in a 20-6 loss. Purdue is 0-13 ATS (-11.7ppg) since 2005 with a line not great than 13 points for either team if they allowed between 13 and 20 points last time they faced this team (13<=Po:points<=20 and season>=2005 and team= 'PUR' and -13<=line<=13).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PENN ST 30, Purdue 10

4.5-STAR NORTH CAROLINA over Miami – Miami put everything they had into their big second half comeback against Virginia Tech last week, only to see it fall just short at Virginia Tech. Don’t expect them to be able to muster up the same effort, or have the same success through the air here as their season deflated significantly last week.

While the Hurricanes comeback fell short, their comeback to cover did not, as Miami lost 38-35 as a 7.5 point underdog. Miami is 0-15 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since 2001 when they covered by between 4.5 and 9.5 points last game (season>=2001 and 4.5<=p:ats margin<=9.5 and team= 'MIAF').

The Tar Heels meanwhile played a completely different sort of game last week. They used strong defense to grind out a 14-7 win over Louisville. North Carolina is 13-0-1 ATS (13.7 ppg) since November 1999 when they scored between 8 and 14 points last game, if they are not a 20+ point favorite and if facing a team with fewer than seven wins. (8<=p:points<=14 and line>-20 and date>=19991101 and team= 'NCAR' and o:wins<7).

The Tar Heels have revenge on the mind with this one after getting smoked by Miami last year, 33-10. Miami is 0-7 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since 2004 when facing a team they allowed 10-12 points to last meeting (season>=2004 and 10<=Po:points<=12 and team= 'MIAF'). Also, Miami is 0-10 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since 2001 when facing a team while they beat by between 20 and 25 points last meeting in the past two years while scoring less 44 points (team='MIAF' and season>=2001 and 25>=P:margin>=20 and P:points<44 and Prest<=900).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NORTH CAROLINA 31, Miami 17

4-STAR ATLANTA -4.5 over Carolina – It’s ironic that we are taking the Falcons here. It started with the preseason where we liked the Falcons to go under, and the Panthers to go over (and we still feel good about both of those bets). However, the line has just swung too far for this one game. Everyone saw Atlanta’s collapse and inability to play against Green Bay last week and have written them off. Well no one has shown the ability to play with the Packers for four quarters so far (the same thing happened to Carolina in week two).

Carolina meanwhile has been relying on a lot of back door covers to go 4-0-1 ATS this year including four straight wins. While it is slightly profitable as a leaguewide system to play against teams with four straight covers, what we are more concerned about here is them finally showing the ability to win (beyond facing the Jaguars at home). We know its coming but think it will be during this three-game homestand on deck against Washington, Minnesota and Tennessee, all winnable games for Carolina. Look for Atlanta to keep the guard in this matchup for one more game.

One reason we are not too worried about the big loss Atlanta suffered last week, 25-14 to Green Bay, is that this is a team which has shown a propensity to lose big before. They always manage to bounce back. The Falcons are 11-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since December 23, 2007 after a 7+ point loss. This happened already once this year when they got crushed by Chicago in week one and then defeated Philadelphia at home the next week.

Atlanta defense got rolled through in the second half of Sunday night’s game while the 14 points their offense scored was 9.8 less than expected. The Falcons are 12-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since December 23, 2007 following a game where they allowed at least 21 points and scored less than expected.

A good sign here is Atlanta’s offense is still expected to score 27.2 points in this game, so Vegas is obviously not too worried about the Falcons on that side of the ball. The Falcons are 10-0ATS (14.9 ppg) since December 23, 2007 with a total of at least 40 following a game where they scored 14 or fewer points.

Carolina fell just short of the upset last week, but that was at home, 30-27 against New Orleans. They scored 4.2 points more than expected in that game.

The Panthers are 0-11-1 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 24, 1999 in weeks 6-8 after scoring more points than expected last game.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ATLANTA 31, Carolina 21

4-STAR Houston +8 BALTIMORE – This line is way too high. People are off Houston after their performance last week, but really they dominated almost every aspect of the game. While they did not get the result, you can’t knock them for the performance.

Houston fell in that game 25-20, as a 5.5 point favorite. The Texans are 9-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since October 01, 2006 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week.

They held Oakland to just 3-of-15 on third down attempts but it was not enough. The League is 8-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since November 2009 as a dog after a loss as a home favorite where they held their opponent to under 25% on third downs.

While Houston threw for over 400 yards, they did struggle to run, picking up 70 yards. The League is 17-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since October 15, 2000 during October as a road dog of less than nine points when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss.

Baltimore meanwhile is coming off a nice 34-17 win over the Jets. They held the ball for just 37:00 minutes in the game. The Ravens are 0-15 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since November 8, 2009 after a game where they controlled the ball for at least 31:30.

They did that despite going just 6-of-18 on third down in that game. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS (-3.7 ppg) since January 18, 2009 after a game where they failed to covert at least 10 third down chances.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 28, Houston 27

4-STAR DETROIT -4.5 over San Francisco – Sure Detroit is coming into this one on a short week off an emotional win against Chicago. But people are ignoring the cross country trip for San Francisco and a West Coast team playing a 1:00 p.m. game. We see these factors evening out, leaving us to decide who is the better team. That is clearly the Lions.

At 5-0, Detroit is one of just two undefeated teams left in the league. Undefeated teams tend to keep rolling right through October when expected to. The League is 27-6 ATS (8.0 ppg) since October 22, 2006 during October as a favorite when they are undefeated.

You might see this as a trap game for the Lions but there is nothing trapping them here as next week they are just home for the third straight week against a non-divisional team in Atlanta. The Lions are 7-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since October 02, 2005 during October vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

Detroit is not just 5-0 but 4-1 ATS having covered the past two games. The Lions are 12-0 ATS (+17.1 ppg) since 1989 as a home favorite when they won and covered their last two games, as long as they were not a favorite by more than a field goal in both those wins.

San Francisco meanwhile, is off a crazy 48-3 beating of Tampa Bay. They scored 26 points more than expected in that game. The 49ers are 0-13 ATS (-15.2 ppg) since November 2004 when they are off a home game in when they scored at least five more points than expected.

The score of that game was 24-3 at halftime. The 49ers are 0-7-2 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 23, 2003 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. Also, the 49ers are 0-10-2 ATS (-9.7 ppg) after a game where they scored at least 21 points and led by double digits at half.

There wasn’t much keeping San Francisco out of the endzone in that game with six TDs. The 49ers are 0-11-2 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since December 8, 2002 the week after a win where they scored at least four touchdowns.

They picked up 28 first downs and had only one turnover. The 49ers are 0-9-1 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2000 after a game where they picked up at least 24 first downs and committed one or fewer turnovers.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DETROIT 34, San Francisco 24

4.5-STAR San Francisco and Detroit Over 46 – Detroit has been one of the most money in the bag over teams the last several years. It’s just as good this year as their offense can score in such quick spurts that no total is safe. Yet their totals have not really gone up. Take advantage.

Monday night was the first Lions game this season which did not go over. It was due to a strong defensive effort, allowing just 13 points. The Lions are 16-0-1 OU (7.8 ppg) since November 2007 following a game where they allowed 21 or fewer points.

The 24 points they scored was also 2.8 points less than expected. The Lions are 12-0-1 OU (10.1 ppg) December 19, 2004 since December 19, 2004 following a game where they scored less than expected but covered.

The reason for that was how often Chicago had the ball as Detroit offense was on the field for less than 21 minutes. The Lions are 11-0 (8.5 ppg) since November 16, 2003 after a game where they did not control the time of possession but allowed at least seven points less than expected.

After that big divisional game they have three straight non-divisional games on deck. The Lions are 8-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since November 22, 2009 at home vs a non-divisional opponent.

San Francisco is no slouch themselves this season at 4-1, having won three straight. The Lions are 6-0-1 OU (8.9 ppg) since December 24, 2006 when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

San Francisco’s offense exploded last game, defeating Tampa Bay 48-3 while scoring six touchdowns. The 49ers are 11-0-1 OU (10.8 ppg) since September 14, 2003 with at least five days rest following a game where they scored at least four TDs.

San Fran only punted once in that game. The 49ers are 9-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since October 14, 2002 following a game where they punted two or fewer times.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DETROIT 34, San Francisco 24

4.5-STAR Philadelphia -1 over WASHINGTON – The media backlash on the Eagles this week has swung this line too far. Buffalo is a better team than Washington and last week’s -3 line was fair. The Eagles still have the kind of talent which few teams can match and while we like the Redskins, Philadelphia will turn things around here.

Last week, Philadelphia shot itself in the foot repeatedly committing five turnovers. The Eagles are 10-0-1 ATS (10.3 ppg) since November 1991 when they committed at least five turnovers last game.

In that 31-24 loss, Philly fell behind 28-7 and was down 31-14 going into the fourth. The Eagles are 10-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since November 16, 1997 if not more than a FG favorite, after a game where trailed by at least 14 after the third quarter and had less than two sacks.

At 3-1, Washington is 2.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and would put them away here with a win. The Redskins are 0-17 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since 2000 when hosting a team with fewer wins on the season, as long as they are not on a two-plus game losing streak. Also, the Redskins are 0-11 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since 1999 at home versus any team with fewer wins when they are off a straight up win.

Washington won that last game, 17-10 over St Louis. They led 7-0 after the first quarter. The Redskins are 0-11 ATS (-13.7 ppg) since October 29, 2005 in October game after a game where they led a non-divisional opponent after the first quarter.

Washington held the ball for 35:10 in that game. The Redskins are 0-12 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 2001 following a road game where they controlled the ball between 34 and 38 minutes.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Philadelphia 31, WASHINGTON 17

4-STAR MINNESOTA -3 over Arizona – While it is Minnesota which is the team still looking for their first victory, they are actually still the better of these two teams. If anything, it makes them more desperate. We think they’ll finally be able to play four quarters in a game here.

Arizona really let a game slip away last Sunday. Leading 10 point in the fourth quarter they allowed 21 fourth quarter points in a 31-27. Things would have never got to that point had they not failed to score TDs in three trips to the red zone, as they got their six times total. The Cardinals are 0-14 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since 2002 as a road dog after a home game in which they had at least four red zone attempts and failed on at least two of them.

Arizona found success on the ground in the game, rushing for 156 yards. The Cardinals are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.

Penalties really hurt them in the game as they committed 11 for 118 yards, three giving New York first downs. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since January 16, 2010 after giving up at least three first downs via penalty.

Minnesota lost to Kansas City last week, 22-17. They controlled the ball for 31:10 in that road loss. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (16.1 ppg) since September 20, 1998 the week after on the road as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 27, Arizona 13

4.5-STAR NEW ENGLAND -7.5 over Ny Jets – New England has been waiting for this opportunity since last year’s letdown against the Jets. It’s not going to be 45-3 bad this time but the way the Pats are playing, the Jets will just not be able to stop them or keep up on the scoreboard.

New England is coming off a 31-19 win against Oakland. The Patriots are 13-0-1 ATS (10.5 ppg) since October 19, 2003 in October after a Sunday win by double digits.

It was something different for New England in that game as they ran for 183 yards. The Patriots are 8-0-1 ATS (13.7 ppg) since December 21, 2008 the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. Going back further, the Patriots are 15-0-1 ATS (13.6 ppg) since December 2002 after a game where they rushed for at least 150 yards and recorded fewer than three sacks.

New England actually did not record a single sack in this game. The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (13.7 ppg) since October 2006 after a regulation game where they did not have one sack.

New York still has a strong defense which has been able to get other teams off the field. The Patriots are 11-0-1 ATS (13.2 ppg) since October 08, 2000 at home when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.

However, the Jets are turning the ball over at an alarming rate. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since October 21, 2001 during October when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

They now have lost back to back game to the Raiders and Ravens. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since October 03, 2004 during October when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.

This is their third straight road game and second straight as a dog. The Jets are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since October 26, 2003 during October as a road dog.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 38, NY Jets 20

4.5-STAR Denver and San Diego Over 46 – We saw a formula for this game just last week. Denver getting blown out against Green Bay but moving the ball enough to easily send it over. We see that happening again here.

Both teams can air things out here with their bye weeks each coming up next week. The Broncos are 8-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since 1996 at home the week before their bye. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 10-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since 1994 on the road the week before their bye if they’ll have a full two weeks rest.

This is the first meeting between these teams this season. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (17.8 ppg) since November 19, 2006 at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.

Denver has not played a divisional opponent since facing Oakland in the opening game of the season. The Broncos are 12-0 OU (14.8 ppg) since November 15, 2009 after playing as a dog against a non-divisional opponent.

In that Green Bay game last week, Aaron Rodgers threw for 408 yards. The Broncos are 17-0-2 OU (10.8 ppg) in database history at home the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing.

One thing they did well in that game was limit penalties, as they committed just three. The Broncos are 9-0 OU (8.0 ppg) since December 24, 1995 the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Diego 38, DENVER 21

4.5-STAR NY GIANTS -9.5 over Seattle – Seattle is the biggest jackal and hyde team in the NFL. Fortunately we know how this occurs for them. They are great at home but miserable on the road. Having played back-to-back home games has made people forget how bad they are and can be here.

Seattle has been known to be particularly bad in games like these. The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 27, 2008 as a road 7+ dog.

Seattle covered late and actually had a shot to win against Atlanta in a 30-28 defeat last week. They were five-point dogs in that game. The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a game where they covered and scored at least 28 points.

They were only expected to score 17 points in that game. The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since October 2005 after a game at home where they scored at least 10 points more than expected.

One reason they couldn’t pull off the upset was Atlanta scored TDs on both trips to the redzone. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since November 27, 2008 as an away dog after a game where held their opponent out of the endzone on two or fewer red zone attempts.

Turnovers could be a big factor in a blowout. New York doesn’t commit many and Seattle doesn’t force a whole lot. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since September 20, 2009 when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. Meanwhile, the Giants are 8-0 ATS (16.2 ppg) since September 14, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

Eli Manning has only throw two interceptions so far this year and neither have been in the past two games. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 30, 2001 after wins in each of the previous two weeks in which they threw no interceptions.

Last week, they helped spark a 31-27 win over Arizona. They had to score 21 fourth quarter points to overcome a 10-point deficit. The Giants are 10-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since September 30, 2007 after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter.

Eli Manning was forced to throw 40 times to do just that. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since October 02, 2005 as a favorite the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average.

That is now three straight wins for the Giants. The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since October 04, 1998 during October on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW YORK 34, Seattle 10

4-STAR Michigan -7 over NORTHWESTERN – If these Wolverines have proved one thing, it’s that its going to take a really good defense to stop their offense from rolling this year. Northwestern does not provide that as evidenced by the 38 points they allowed to Illinois last week. That means they are going to need to go score for score with Michigan and they just can’t do that.

Michigan played one of the best games we have seen from any team all season last week with are Side of the Week over Minnesota. As a 20-point favorite they won, 58-0! Michigan is 9-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since September 16, 2006 after a game which they won by at least 14 points as a favorite of less than 21 points, if they are not a 30+ point favorite here (team='MICH' and date>=20060916 and line>-30 and p:margin>=14 and -21
We mentioned the 38 points the Wildcats allowed last week in the lead but did not talk about how their offense went off for 35 points in that game. It is not a repeatable feat for them. Northwestern is 0-16 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 2005 in the regular season after they scored between 26 and 36 points last game (team='NORW' and date>=20051101 and 36>=p:points>=26 and game type='RS').

These teams have not met since 2008. In that game, Northwestern won 21-14 as a dog in the Big House. Northwestern is 0-6 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since 2006 in the first nine games of the season facing a team they defeated by between 3 and 7 points last game.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Michigan 38, NORTHWESTERN 21

4-STAR Arizona -2 over OREGON STATE - You look at Arizona’s record and four game losing streak and think they are horrible. They really aren’t. The problem has been the opponents they have faced. Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon and USC are all top 25 teams or better. Oregon State is not just one step below these teams but several and this is a game Nick Foles can go out and win.

The Wildcats have been made the small road favorite here after losing last week, 48-41, to USC in a game they covered. Arizona is 9-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 2003 between games 4 and 10 of the season, as between a 3-point favorite and 11-point dog, following a loss (team='ARZ' and p:L and 10>=game number>=4 and date>=20041101 and 11>=line>=-3).

The Beavers also covered last week, the first time all year in a 35-20 loss to Arizona State as an 18-point dog. Oregon State is 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since 2007 following a game which they covered by between 3 and 6 points (team='ORST' and season>=2007 and 6>=p:ats margin>=3).

Those 20 points were good for an offense which just can’t hang with Arizona. Oregon State is 0-8 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since October 22, 2005 following a game where they scored between 17 and 24 points, if they are not a double digit underdog.

The Wildcats also have revenge on the mind here after falling to Oregon St. at home last year, 29-27. Arizona is 8-0-2 (7.2 ppg) since October 25, 2008 when facing a team they lost by less than 14 to last matchup, if that occurred at least 320 days ago (team='ARZ' and date>=20081025 and -1>=P:margin>=-13 and Prest>=320).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Arizona 38, OREGON STATE 20

4.5-STAR VIRGINIA TECH -7 over Miami – This game is all about redemption for the Hokies. Last week, many felt they were exposed as frauds after a big home loss to Clemson. However, it is Miami who is the true fraud and we will see that here.

Virginia Tech got destroyed, 23-3, last Saturday against Clemson. Their offense just could not move the ball. Virginia Tech is 10-0-1 ATS (12.6 ppg) since November 21, 1992 with less than 13 days rest when they scored 13 or fewer points last game (p:points<=13 and date>=19921121 and team= 'VTCH' and rest<13).

They did manage to play reasonable defense, as allowing 23 points is to be expected against Clemson. Virginia Tech is 13-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since 2006 when they allowed between 17 and 26 points last game (17<=po:points<=26 and season>=2006 and team= 'VTCH').

The Hokies were seven point favorites going into that game. Virginia Tech is 8-0-1 ATS (15.2 ppg) in database history when they failed to cover by 27+ last game (p:ats margin<=-27 and team= 'VTCH').

Miami meanwhile got fat last week, beating up on Bethune-Cookman, 45-14. Miami is 1-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since November 2003 when they won by more than 28 points last game (date>=20031101 and 28
When they played V-Tech last year, it was a disappointing home loss for Miami, 31-17. Miami is 0-11 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since October 2005 when they allowed between 27 and 38 points to this team in their last meeting, and did not score exactly 24 themselves (38>=Po:points>=27 and date>=20051001 and team= 'MIAF' and P:points!=24).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: VIRGINIA TECH 31, Miami 13

4.5-STAR Detroit and Dallas Over – Both these teams can move the ball. Detroit can score in bunches as evidenced by their second half performance last week. Dallas can move the ball as well and they are not going to be forced to settle for six field goals every week like what happened on Monday night.

Last week, Detroit defeated Minnesota, 26-23, in overtime. The Lions are 7-0 OU (17.3 ppg) since October 31, 1993 on the road after a straight up win on the road.

They were also field goal heavy in that game with four and two TDs. The Lions are 13-0-1 OU (11.0 ppg) since December 19, 2004 after an away game which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

They were forced to punt the ball seven times in that game. The Lions are 11-0 OU (8.3 ppg) since October 2000 after a win where they punt at least seven times.

Even still, they had over 34 minutes of possession in that game. The Lions are 15-0-1 OU (9.9 ppg) since October 17, 2004 after a road game where they controlled the time of possession.

Dallas is now 2-1, having won two straight games. The Lions are 8-0 OU (13.2 ppg) since January 01, 2006 on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.

Dallas was stuck in a divisional slugfest last week but airs it out when not in the NFC East. The Cowboys are 10-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since October 10, 2010 vs a non-divisional opponent.

This week is a big game for Dallas against the 3-0 Lions. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since November 28, 2002 at home versus any team with more wins. after playing at home.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit 31, DALLAS 27

4-STAR SAN DIEGO -7 over Miami – There is no way this line should not be double digits. One week’s performance from the Chargers last week is scaring people away from laying a big line with them. That is absolutely the wrong move.

Miami competing with Cleveland last week, but fell, 17-16. The Dolphins were able to move the ball, and were forced to punt just three times in the game. The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since December 2002 after a game they punted three or fewer times and allowed 21 or fewer points.

Miami had 369 yards offense in the game while Cleveland had total yards. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since October 01, 1989 during October as a dog the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent.

A big difference in that game was sacks. Cleveland recorded five while Miami did not have any. The Dolphins are 0-9 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since September 30, 2007 after a game that was within three of pick em and they recorded two or fewer sacks.

It was not just last week that San Diego’s offense didn’t live up to expectations as they have not had more points than expected yet this season. The League is 8-0 ATS (18.3 ppg) since December 13, 2009 as a home 7+ favorite when their dps was negative in their last three games.

San Diego was able to save that 20-17 win over Kansas City by holding them twice in the red zone, once to a field goal and once without scoring. The Chargers are 10-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) as a favorite after a home game where they stopped their opponent from scoring TDs on at least two trips to the red zone.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO 31, Miami 17

4-STAR Washington and St Louis Under 43.5 – St Louis’ offense just is not getting things done right now. They have scored an average of 12 points per game this year and against a solid defense we don’t expect things to be much different here. Washington meanwhile is a solid offense but does not have the big play ability to score in a hurry or grab 30+ points. Look for this one to go under.

St Louis is currently 0-3 on the season. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-5.7 ppg) since October 12, 2008 when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak.

Last week, they fell in a heartbreaker in Dallas, 18-16, on Monday night football. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-11.8 ppg) since September 13, 1992 the week after a straight up loss against a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football.

It was the second straight game which they scored slightly less than they were expected to. The Redskins are 0-6 OU (-11.9 ppg) since November 30, 2008 after playing on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games.

That Dallas game was a battle of red zone struggles. The Cowboys were forced to settle for six field goals in the game, not converting any of their three red zone chances into touchdowns. Washington meanwhile, was just one –of-three in the red zone. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-8.1 ppg) since November 21, 2010 after a game which they did not score TDs on at least two red zone attempts.

That includes one drive which they started at Dallas’ 10-yard line. The Redskins are 0-8 OU (-11.4 ppg) since December 30, 2007 after an away game which they didn’t score on a goal to go attempt.

Last week, St. Louis got destroyed 37-7. Even following way behind early they were only able to throw for 132 yards. The League is 0-11 OU (-6.2 ppg) since October 10, 2010 within 3 of pick when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Washington 20, ST LOUIS 13

4.5-STAR Pittsburgh and Houston Over 45 – We just don’t get this total. After combining for 73 points with New Orleans last week, this total is actually 7.5 lower than last weeks! We think Houston proved they have to play these games in shootout fashion and we have concerns about Pittsburgh’s defense as they have absolutely not been tested since the week one debacle against Baltimore, playing well against Seattle and Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh was a huge 10 points favorite in Indy last week and now are 3-point dogs here. The Steelers are 6-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since January 08, 2006 within 3 of pick on the road after playing as a TD+ favorite.

This is the second straight road game for Pittsburgh with back-to-back home games coming up. The Texans are 10-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since November 20, 2005 at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game.

In that matchup last week, Houston fell to New Orleans, 40-33. The Texans are 11-0 OU (11.0 ppg) since December 18, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after a straight up loss.

New Orleans scored five TDs along with two two-point conversions and a FG. The Texans are 8-0 OU (14.4 ppg) since December 24, 2006 at home after a game as a dog where they allowed at least four TDs.

Houston meanwhile picked up three TDs but settled for four field goals. The Texans are 7-0 OU (12.7 ppg) since October 21, 2007 after a loss where they made more TDs than field goals.

Houston had allowed just 20 total points the first two weeks but those came against Miami and Indianapolis. The Texans are 7-0 OU (15.8 ppg) since October 23, 2005 at home after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average.

Matt Schaub threw for 373 passing yards in that loss last week. The Texans are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since December 03, 2006 within 3 of pick the week after a loss in which they had at least 300 yards passing.

They ran for 109 yards as well, down from 167 and 138 yards on the ground the first two weeks. The Texans are 10-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since November 03, 2002 at home when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: HOUSTON 35, Pittsburgh 34

4.5-STAR Ny Giants -1 over ARIZONA – This line is quite perplexing. New York is the far better team than Arizona. The Cardinals have not really been exposed yet but they are in a class of team far lower than the Giants.

New York won last week, 29-16, against Philly. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since October 23, 2006 on the road after a straight up win on the road.

New York failed to cover in their week one loss before covering in the past two games, including by 21 points last game. The Giants are 19-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) since 1994 when their ATS margin increased in each of their past two games, as long as they were not a FG+ favorite in both games.

They trailed, 16-14 going into the fourth quarter against Philly before a 15-point fourth gave them the win. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since September 30, 2007 after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. Also, the Giants are 9-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since December 10, 2006 after a game which they covered but trailed after three quarters.

It was a game of prolonged possessions as each team had just 10 in the game. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since November 10, 2002 on the road after a win which they had 10 or fewer drives.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York 27, ARIZONA 17

4.5-STAR New England over OAKLAND – This pick is no knock on the Oakland Raiders. They are a solid football team. However, the one place they can be beat in through the air this season. Look for New England’s passing attack to put up point more effectively than Oakland’s running game leading to a nice New England win.

New England is coming off a tough loss as a favorite to Buffalo while Oakland is coming off a big upset win of the Jets. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since October 22, 2000 on the road off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.

New England was a big nine point favorite against Buffalo there. The Patriots are 12-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since October 11, 1998 in the month of October following a game which they were at TD+ favorite.

In that game, they could not to Ryan Fitzpatrick and could not record a sack. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since October 2006 after a regulation game which they did not record a sack.

Oakland won that game over the Jets, 34-24. They were four point dogs in that game. The Raiders are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since October 13, 2002 after a game where they allowed at least 21 points but covered by at least a TD. Also, the Raiders are 0-6 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 25, 2009 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.

The game was tied at 17-17 at the half. The League is 0-10 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since October 25, 2009 at home the week after a 7+ point win in a game that was tied at the half.

It was a penalty filled game with each team picking up five first downs via the flag. The Raiders are 0-13 ATS (-9.5 ppg) in database history (since 2002) at home after a game where they picked up at least three first downs by penalty.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England 34, OAKLAND 20

4-STAR MILWAUKEE over Arizona – The Brewers have had the best home field advantage in baseball all year. Now that the playoffs have started, this is like the Super Bowl for these people. We expecte Yovani Gallardo to pitch like a true ace and get the job done in this oen.
In his last start, Gallardo allowed seven hits over 7.1 innings while defeating Florida. The Brewers are 13-0 since June 24, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1300.
Amazingly he struck out 11 batters without walking a single one. The Brewers are 14-1 since June 24, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $1215.
Gallardo has faced Arizona twice this season, winning each with a quality start. The Brewers are 13-1 since June 29, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a home favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1127.
Ian Kennedy faced Milwaukee once this season, winning that start. The Brewers are 22-5 since May 20, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1600.
The Brewers enter this game rolling having won two straight and five of six. The Diamondbacks are 9-27 since May 25, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1398 when playing against.
They never trailed in an important game to clinch home field in the 7-3 win over Pittsburgh Wednesday. The Brewers are 20-3 since July 11, 2010 as a home 130+ favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1530.
They are also a strong team starting off home series. The Brewers are 22-6 since April 26, 2010 as a home 130+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1205.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 5, Arizona 2

4-STAR EASTERN MICHIGAN -8.5 over Akron – Who would have thought we would see this day. Not only that Eastern Michigan is laying 8.5 points to a fellow Bowl Subdivision team but that it would make sense to do so. That is how bad Akron is. Eastern Michigan was the worst team in I-A a few years back but they’ve made improvements while Akron has taken the torch and run with it. Lay the points here.

These teams did not meet last year, but in 2009, back when the Zips had a semblance of talent still, they defeated Eastern Michigan 28-21 late in the season. Akron is 0-13 (-9.6 ppg) since 2006 when facing a team they scored 25+ points against last meeting if they scored more than 10 last game and aren’t 17_ dogs (P:points>=25 and season>=2006 and team= 'AKR' and p:points>10 and line<17).

The Zips did win last game, beating up on Virginia Military Institute, 36-13. Akron is 0-9-1 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 26, 2005 when they covered by 9.5+ points last game (date>=20051226 and p:ats margin>=9.5 and team= 'AKR').

So far on the year, Eastern Michigan has put up a couple of strong defensive efforts, holding Michigan and Penn State to just 31 and 34 points on the road, while keeping Howard and Alabama State in single digits. Akron is 0-15 ATS (-13.1ppg) since December 26, 2005 when facing a team that allows between 11 and 25 points per game, if Akron scored more than 10 points last game and allowed less than 50 (date>=20051226 and 11<=oA(o:points)<=25 and team= 'AKR' and p:points>10 and po:points<50).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: EASTERN MICHIGAN 28, Akron 10

4.5-STAR MICHIGAN -20 over Minnesota – These are teams going in different directions. Minnesota is the bottom feeder of the Big 10. Losing to New Mexico State at home is unacceptable but once can be a fluke. But the Golden Gophers also lost to North Dakota State last week. They are simply terrible and Michigan rolls through teams like this, winning all three games a favorite by over 20 points this year.

The Wolverines took last game over San Diego State, 28-7 as a 10-point favorite. Michigan is 8-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since September 16, 2006 after a game which they won by at least 14 points as a favorite of less than 20 points, if they are not a 30+ point favorite here (team='MICH' and date>=20060916 and line>-30 and p:margin>=14 and -20
The Golden Gophers meanwhile lost to North Dakota State last week, 37-24. Minnesota is 0-9 ATS(-10.5 ppg) since 1999 when they failed to cover by between 7 and 25 points last game as a favorite, if they scored less than 28 points last time they faced this team if they have (team='MIN' and season>=1999 and -25<=p:ats margin<=-7 and F and (Prest=None or P:points<28)). Also, Minnesota is 0-8 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since 2001 in the first 10 games of the season as a dog of at least five points when they allowed between 30 and 37 points last game (team='MIN' and season>=2001 and 37>=po:points>=30 and line>=5 and game number<=10).

When these teams faced last year a worse Michigan squad defeated a better Minnesota team, 29-6, on the road in 2008. Minnesota is 0-12 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since 2000 as between a 10 point favorite and 20.5 point dog when facing a conference team which they allowed between 29 and 35 points to last meeting where they were not a 24+ point favorite (35>=Po:points>=29 and season>=2000 and team= 'MIN' and conference=o:conference and -10<=line<=20.5 and P:line<24).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 41, Minnesota 10

4.5-STAR SEATTLE +3.5 over Arizona – This line is crazy. To even favor Arizona in Seattle is ridiculous and to be pushing that over the 3-point mark is even worse. Seattle has had the biggest home/road splits in the league for years now. Their first two games just happened to come on the road and the first one they competed in far more than the final score showed. Be thankful you are getting the points here.

Last week, Arizona lost in Washington, 22-21. They were up 14-10 entering the fourth quarter. The League is 0-8-1 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since December 29, 2002 as a road favorite after a loss on the road against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter.

They were able to stay in that game by forcing third downs, which Washington went 6-of-17 on. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS (-14.6 ppg) since October 22, 2006 as a favorite after a game as a dog where they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third down attempts.

They also never had a first and goal attempt in that game as they had two long scoring TDs and a short run. The League is 0-15-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) in September as a favorite if they lost last game as an away dog while never attempting a goal to go.

Seattle has lost both games so far this season, failing to cover in each. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since November 06, 2006 at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games.

Last week it was to be expected as they were rolled into by Pittsburgh, 24-0, as 14.5 point dogs. The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS (13.7 ppg) since November 30, 1992 following a game which they were a double digit dog and trailed by at least a TD after one quarter.

They did hold Pittsburgh out of the end zone twice in the red zone or that final score could have been worse. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 2009 at home after they stopped their opponent on at least two red zone attempts last game.

The problem was Pittsburgh was moving the chains in other parts of the field, going 8-of-15 on third down. The Seahawks are 12-0 ATS (+9.3 ppg) since October 22nd, 2007 the week after a game in which their defense allowed at least a 50% third down conversion rate and did not stifle three or more red zone attempts.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SEATTLE 20, Arizona 13

4.5-STAR Detroit and Minnesota Over 45 – There is nothing fluky about Detroit’s how powered attack. Sure they are not going to be able to send games over all by themselves on a weekly basis but they sure can score. We think Minnesota goes toe-to-toe with them here, turning this one into a shootout.

Last week, Detroit dominated both sides of the ball in a 48-3 win over the Chiefs. The Lions are 15-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since November 2007 after a game where they allowed 21 or fewer points.

As a nine-point favorite going into that game they covered by 30 points. The Lions are 10-0 OU (8.1 ppg) in database history after a game which they covered by at least 21 points and allowed fewer than 10 points.

Interestingly, it was not the Detroit pressure which completely ruined the Chiefs offense as they had just a pair of sacks. The Lions are 16-0 OU (13.0 ppg) since December 24, 2006 after a game where they allowed fewer points last expected and had less than three sacks.

Kansas City just could not keep the ball in their control, going 2-of-11 on third downs. The Lions are 10-0-1 OU (6.0 ppg) since October 17, 2004 after a game where they stopped their opponent on more than 75% of their third down attempts.

Penalties also did Kansas City in as they committed eight, four of which gave Detroit first downs. The Lions are 6-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since October 17, 2004 as a favorite following a game which they picked up at least three first downs on penalties.

They did force Kansas City into six turnovers, expanding their strong margin for the season. The Vikings are 6-0 OU (5.2 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a home dog when facing a team that has an average takeaway margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 31, Detroit 27

4.5-STAR NEW ORLEANS -4 over Houston – Everyone is all about Houston this season but the fact is they have not proven anything yet. We will take the team they hope to become in New Orleans at home with this small line to cover.

Houston won in Miami last week, 23-13. One key to that win was that Houston did not turn the ball over once. The Texans are 0-12 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since 2005 when they are off a game in which they committed no turnovers and recorded at least one sack.

A big key to the game was a second quarter series when Miami had first and goal and ended up getting no points after a 22-yard field goal attempt was blocked. The Texans are 0-7-1 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since December 20, 2009 after a game which they stopped their opponent on a goal to go series.

New Orleans rolled last week, 30-13, over the Bears and also at home. The Saints are 10-0-1 ATS (11.5 ppg) since 1991 in September following a 7+ point win in an NFC game.

But after they lost in week one to Green Bay, they are currently looking up to Houston in the standings by a game. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since November 30, 2008 versus any team with more wins.

Further creating an important game for New Orleans here is the fact they are on the road each of the next three weeks. The Saints are 8-0-1 ATS (11.7 ppg) since October 12, 2008 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 31, Houston 17

4-STAR VIRGINIA -3 over Southern Miss – Virginia has been a bit of a surprise team so far this season. They hung with North Carolina last week and picked up a road win at Indiana two weekends ago. They are currently better than Southern Mississippi and should get this win tonight.

The Cavaliers fell in that game against North Carolina last week, 28-17. They were 10.5 point dogs going into the matchup. Virginia is 13-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since 2002 when they failed to cover by six or fewer points last game and aren’t 10+ point dogs (season>=2002 and -6<=p:ats margin<=-0.5 and team= 'VIR' and line<10).

Southern Mississippi enters this matchup 2-1 as well on the season. Southern Mississippi is 0-13 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since 2001 when they are .667 on the season, if they allowed less than 28 points last game (season>=2001 and WP=66.666666666666657 and team= 'SMIS' and po:points<28).

The Golden Eagles won last week, 52-6 over Southeastern Louisiana. When these teams met last in 2009, Southern Miss won 37-34 at home. Southern Mississippi is 0-8 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since 2004 if not a 21+ points favorite when facing a team scored between 31 and 37 points against last meeting if they did not allow more than 35 points last game (season>=2004 and 37>=P:points>=31 and team= 'SMIS' and line>-21 and po:points<=35).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: VIRGINIA 31, Southern Mississippi 20

4-STAR BALL STATE +4 over Army – Ball State is an underrated MAC team. Sure they got crushed at South Florida but in the two games they had chances to win they have. We look for they to keep that going and pull off the outright win as the home dog here.

Last week, the Cardinals were able to pull out a squeaker, 28-25, in their MAC opener against Buffalo. Ball St. is 11-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since 2006 when last week’s game was decided by four points or fewer (season>=2006 and -4<=p:margin<=4 and team= 'BALL').

Army meanwhile is off a big upset, 21-14, over Northwestern. Army is 0-6 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since October 2007 off a game which they won by between 7 and 17 points (team='ARMY' and date>=20071001 and 7<=p:margin<=17).

Coming into that game they were 6.5 point home dogs. Army is 0-10 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since 1997 following a game which they covered by between 9.5 and 17 points and are not more than 2 TD favorites (team='ARMY' and season>=1997 and 17>=p:ats margin>=9.5 and line<=14).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BALL STATE 28, Army 24

East Carolina is 9-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since 2003 between games three and 10 if they scored 12 or fewer points last game and allowed less than 59 (team= 'ECAR' and p:points<=12 and po:points<59 and season>=2003 and 10>=game number>=3).

4.5-STAR WASHINGTON -3.5 over Arizona – Despite their actual level of talent, Washington sure played like they were a team which belonged in week one. Arizona is not a team which is going to be able to expose anything, instead being the ones to get exposed traveling to the East Coast here.

Arizona won and covered their opener, 28-21, over Carolina but did not look good doing so. The Cardinals are 0-9 ATS (-17.4 ppg) since November 22, 2009 following a game which they covered. Also, The Cardinals are 0-7-1 ATS (-15.2 ppg) since November 22, 2009 on the road after a straight up win.

They trailed at the half in that game, 14-7. The Cardinals are 0-9 (-6.4 ppg) since December 1999 following a game where they trailed at half and won by 7+.

Carolina hit the big plays in that game but struggled to move the ball consistently. They had to punt seven times. The Redskins are 8-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since October 01, 2006 when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Washington meanwhile, controlled the entire game in their 28-14 win over the Giants. The Redskins are 12-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since November 29, 1998 following a divisional game where they scored at least 28 points.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 31, Arizona 14

4.5-STAR Kansas City/Detroit Over 45 – Detroit clearly proved in week one that they are a team that can put up points, and they really should have scored more than the 27 they did against Tampa Bay. Kansas City even more clearly showed that they can give up points and that’s only going to get worse with Eric Berry done for the year. However, with weapons such as Jamal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Dwyane Bowe, they will be able to put up points as well.

Kansas City was destroyed in their opener at home, 41-7 by Buffalo. They were expected to score 22.5 points in that game. The Chiefs are 11-0- OU (13.7 ppg) since September 28, 2008 after a non-divisional game where they scored less than expected.

They trailed, 14-0 after the first quarter and Buffalo never looked back. The Chiefs are 10-0 OU (16.1 ppg) since November 22, 1998 when there scored 14 points or less last game and trailed by 10+ after the first quarter.

Kansas City managed just 13 first downs, running 56 total plays. The Chiefs are 8-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since September 30, 2007 as a 7+ dog the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.

Now they get to face a Detroit team which looked good in its week one win. The Chiefs are 8-0 OU (16.3 ppg) since October 22, 2000 when facing an undefeated team after week 1.

Detroit defeated Tampa Bay, 27-20, covering a pick game. The Lions are 6-0 OU (5.8 ppg) since October 06, 1996 as a favorite off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week.

By Detroit’s usual standards, their defense was quite stout. The Lions are 14-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since November 2007 following a game where they allowed 21 or fewer points.

That defense did not spend much time on the field as the Lions had the ball for over 36 minutes. The Lions are 14-0-1 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 2007 after an away game where they controlled the battle for time of possession.

They can now try to shoot it out more against a non-conference foe. The Lions are 7-0 OU (16.4 ppg) since November 22, 2009 at home vs a non-divisional opponent.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DETROIT 34, Kansas City 24

4.5-STAR Dallas -3 over SAN FRANCISCO – The final week one results masked how each of the teams looked. It started with who and where they played as Dallas had to travel to the Jets while San Francisco got Seattle at home. The final scores also masked those game. Dallas actually outplayed New York and let the win slip away. San Francisco meanwhile, struggled with Seattle and two late returns masked that in the final scored.

Dallas fell, 30-27, on Sunday night. They forced the Jets into a making Mark Sanchez throw 44 times for 335 yards. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing.

They have another big game coming up next week as they host Dallas on Monday night and can’t afford to go into it 0-2. The League is 9-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since October 28, 2007 as a road favorite the week before playing on Monday Night at home against a divisional opponent.

San Francisco to that game at home 33-17 last week and doesn’t have to travel again here. The League is 0-8-2 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since October 25, 2009 as a home dog on grass after a straight up win at home.

After a scoreless first quarter, the Niners went up 16-0 at half. The 49ers are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 23, 2003 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite.

The 33 points were 11.2 more than they were expected to score as 5 point favorite. . Also, the 49ers are 0-9-1 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since November 23, 2003 following a game which they won by at least 14 and covered by double digits. The 49ers are 0-9 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since November 14, 2004 following a home game where they scored at least a TD more than expected.

Quarterback pressure was big in that game with San Francisco getting five sacks. The 49ers are 0-13-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 30, 2002 after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Dallas 31, SAN FRANCISCO 13

4-STAR Central Michigan +7.5 over WESTERN MICHIGAN – This is an awfully perplexing line considering Central Michigan has historically been the better team and in the first two games has looked to be at least even with the Broncos. Getting all sorts of key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, and 7 and we will take the Chippewas in this one.

Central Michigan has not done a lot offensively early in this season but have been good defensively, allowing 33 points in two games. Western Michigan is 0-8 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since September 28, 2002 when facing a team which allows 17 or less points per game (date>=20020928 and 17>=Average(oo:points@o:team and o:season and oo:season=o:season) and team= 'WMCH').

However, the last one they could not stay in as their offense let them down in a 27-13 loss at Kentucky last Saturday. Central Michigan is 9-0-2 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 2003 as between a 10 point dog and 11 point favorite, when they scored between 7 and 20 points last game (7<=p:points<=20 and date>=20041023 and team= 'CMCH' and -11<=line<10).

These games expected to be tight have set up perfectly for the Chippewas early in the season. Central Michigan is 10-0-2 ATS (8.4 ppg) since 2004 when between a 3 point favorite and 8 point dog in the first eight games of the season (team='CMCH' and season>=2004 and 8>=line>=-3 and game number<9).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Central Michigan 27, WESTERN MICHIGAN 24

4.5-STAR UCONN -over Iowa St. – This pick is about way more than just UCONN being the better team (which they are). Iowa State is coming off its biggest win in recent memory. They defeated in-state rival and big brother Iowa last week, 44-41 at home as an underdog. That game went to triple overtime to boot. Now they have to travel halfway across the country, on short week, after an extended game that was one of their biggest wins in recent history. That is a recipe for disaster when facing a UConn team which suffered a tough loss at Vanderbilt last week and is going to be hungry here. Rarely do we predict a blowout when the line is tight in college football, but we see it here.

Iowa State has beat Iowa twice recently, with home wins in 2005 and 2007. In 2005, they won but failed to cover against Army the next week. In 2007 they lost outright, failing to cover against Toledo. We look for that hangover to be in full effect here.

The Cyclones generally don’t play particularly well as small underdogs anyway. Iowa St. is 0-14 ATS (-16.4 ppg) since November 2001 as between a 3.5 and 9 point underdog, if they haven’t played this team in the last 321 days, didn’t lose by more than 24 to them in that game and didn’t cover by 25+ in their last game (9>=line>=3.5 and date>=20011101 and team= 'IWST' and Prest>321 and P:margin>=-24 and p:ats margin<25).

They are also playing a team which they have no tradition against. They have played once in the last 30 years in 2002. In that game, Uconn won by 17 as a two touchdown underdog. UConn is 10-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since 2003 in the first 11 games of the year as a favorite, when facing a team they beat by between 15 and 33 points last time they faced them (season>=2003 and 33>=P:margin>=15 and team= 'CON' and game number<12 and F. ).

Last week, they could never really get their offense going, falling at Vandy, 24-21. UCONN is 14-0-2 ATS (10.8 ppg) since October 29, 2006 in the first 11 games of the year, following a game where they scored less than 24 points and the total was greater than 42 (game number<12 and p:points<=23 and p:total>42 and date>=20061029 and team= 'CON').

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: UCONN 34, Iowa St. 17

4.5-STAR OAKLAND over Los Angeles – This is a big game for the Angels but were not convinced they can get it. The line is too high and we’ll grab the home dog here.
Los Angeles won yesterday to split this series, 6-3. The Angels are 7-21 since June 20, 2010 on the road after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $1436 when playing against.
It was a game full of walks, with LA drawing five. The Angels are 3-11 since June 20, 2010 on the road after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $770 when playing against.
Oakland is good at winning these series at home. The Athletics are 14-3 since April 25, 2010 at home and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $970.
Jered Weaver has been struggling but last game, he won 2-1 against the Yankees. The Angels are 1-9 since July 06, 2010 when Jered Weaver starts on the road after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $840 when playing against.
Oakland is counting on Rich Harden today to cover a bullpen which has been taxed. The Athletics are 13-2 since May 06, 2004 when Rich Harden starts at home when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $1145.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: OAKLAND 3, Los Angeles 2

4-STAR Oakland and Los Angeles Under – This game sets up as a pitcher’s duel between Jered Weaver and Rich Harden. With two low scoring offenses, we like the under here.
Los Angeles won yesterday’s game, 6-3. The Angels are 7-22-3 OU since August 11, 2010 after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1440 when playing the under.
However they did so by allowing seven walks. The Angels are 3-15-3 OU since August 22, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1180 when playing the under.
LA won Jered Weaver’s last start as well, 2-1 over New York. The Angels are 3-17-1 OU since July 06, 2010 when Jered Weaver starts after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $1365 when playing the under.
Weaver was great in that start, going eight innings allowing just three hits. The Angels are 1-9-1 OU since July 06, 2010 when Jered Weaver starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits at home for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.
This is a day game, with Weaver going well in these situations. The Angels are 1-10-1 OU since August 01, 2010 when Jered Weaver starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $880 when playing the under.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: OAKLAND 3, Los Angeles 2

4-STAR Chicago over CINCINNATI – Johnny Cueto is being treated as a sure bet here and he is far from it. At almost -200, he is overvalued here.
This would be the second straight year Cueto faded down the stretch. The Reds are 1-7 since September 07, 2010 when Johnny Cueto starts after August for a net profit of $675 when playing against.
Cincinnati won yesterday’s matchup 2-1, after they scored a run in the first inning. The Reds are 13-32 since August 21, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $2271 when playing against.
Mike Leake went eight quality innings for the Reds yesterday. The Reds are 3-13 since June 07, 2010 after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $1175 when playing against.
Each team had only six hits in the game. The Cubs are 9-6 since August 28, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $705.
Chicago however also allowed six walks in the game. The Cubs are 23-12 since May 16, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1481.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Chicago 5, CINCINNATI 3

4-STAR SEATTLE over New York – WOW! This line is way too high. Ivan Nova shouldn’t be favored by -200 on the road against any solid pitcher. Jason Vargas has been good lately and we’ll roll with him here.
New York won yesterday’s matchup, 3-2. The Yankees are 7-14 since July 27, 2010 on the road after a one run win for a net profit of $1043 when playing against.
They are going for the sweep here, after winning the first game 9-3 as well. The Yankees are 8-13 since April 22, 2010 and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two for a net profit of $1011 when playing against. Also, the Yankees are 2-8 since April 22, 2010 on the road and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two for a net profit of $878 when playing against.
Despite losing by just one yesterday, they never led in that game after giving up a pair of runs in the second inning. The Mariners are 20-14 since June 13, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $845.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SEATTLE 4, New York 3

4-STAR Florida over ATLANTA – This is a big dog here and the line is just too high. Chris Volstad has thrown quality starts in his last three outings despite coming up short in all three and that is dealing too well to be +200.
Florida comes in riding a three game winning streak over Pittsburgh. The Marlins are 16-8 since May 19, 2010 as a dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1440. Also, the Marlins are 9-3 since May 19, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1135.
They allowed just six hits in a 4-1 win yesterday. The Marlins are 4-1 since May 19, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $505.
Atlanta meanwhile lost to St Louis yesterday, 6-3, originally falling behind 6-0. The Braves are 0-9 since 2009 as a 200+ favorite when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they never led. Also, the Braves are 0-6 since July 17, 2010 as a 200+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $1075 when playing against.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Florida 4, ATLANTA 3

4-STAR Philadelphia and Houston Under – This is a situation where Brett Myers is poised to pitch well against his favorite team. Roy Oswalt should be able to handle Houston’s AAA offense, leading to an under.
Philadelphia had a six game winning streak snapped yesterday, 3-2 by Philadelphia. The Phillies are 0-9 OU since April 09, 2010 as a road 140+ favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.
Oswalt struck out seven over seven innings in his last start, a 4-2 win over Atlanta. The Phillies are 0-6 OU since August 22, 2010 when Roy Oswalt starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed at home for a net profit of $600 when playing the under.
He allowed just four hits. The Phillies are 2-8 OU since August 22, 2010 when Roy Oswalt starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits at home for a net profit of $580 when playing the under.
Myers also allowed four hits, going 7.2 innings in his last start in a 4-1 win over Pittsburgh. The Astros are 4-12-1 OU since May 05, 2010 when Brett Myers starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road for a net profit of $765 when playing the under.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Philadelphia 3, HOUSTON 1

4-STAR Detroit over CHICAGO – Detroit has the AL Central locked up but they know they can’t even let the threat of a comeback seep in because it would ruin their playoff hopes. That’s because their playoff chances hinge on Justin Verlander pitching as often as humanly possible. Look for them to take this series and then start taking it easy.
Rick Porcello goes tonight and he’s been pitching well while getting the run support as the Tigers have won his last four starts with the Tigers riding a nine game winning streak. The Tigers are 13-1 since August 24, 2010 when Rick Porcello starts after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $1229.
This kid of situation doesn’t fair well for opponent John Danks. The White Sox are 0-4 since May 19, 2010 when John Danks starts as a favorite vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $510 when playing against.
This one is expected to be close, setting up well for Porcello. The Tigers are 16-5 since August 03, 2010 when Rick Porcello starts within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $1131.
Danks meanwhile, hasn’t had luck in series openers. The White Sox are 1-6 since April 09, 2010 when John Danks starts as a home favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $743 when playing against.
Chicago lost yesterday, 7-3. They did so despite drawing five walks. The White Sox are 2-9 since September 2009 at home when they are off a loss in which they drew at least five walks.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit 5, CHICAGO 3

The Seahawks are 2-15 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since November 27, 2008 as a road dog.

The Lions are 5-19-1 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since October 02, 1994 within 3 of pick on grass.

As we detailed in our NFL Futures pick, San Diego is a unique team. They are the one team that gets to make significant additions this season without having to worry about integrating these players in with the shortened season. That’s because all the additions came from within. Having Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Ryan Matthews and Marcus McNeill all back to start a season is going to be huge. This is a team that can pick up where it left off in 2009 as a truly elite squad.