Steve Merril from ProSportsInfo

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The Raiders were a solid 7-4 SU (8-3 ATS) just a few weeks ago, but then they lost back-to-back games at Miami and Green Bay by 20 and 30 point margins. Those two recent blowout losses have now created line value and have put the Raiders in a straight-up win situation at home today. The Raiders 16-46 loss at Green Bay last week was a bit misleading as the Raiders had 5 turnovers and were only out-gained 357-391 in total yards and actually held a 23-22 first down edge.

The Lions do not deserve to be a road favorite in this game as Detroit is not playing well and are just 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) in their past five games with their two recent wins coming against Carolina and Minnesota who are a combined 6-20 SU this season. In fact, Detroit was lucky to win last week as they held a +6 turnover advantage and were out-gained 13-29 in first downs and 280-425 in total yards by the Vikings.

Despite playing without RB Darren McFadden recently, the Raiders are still averaging 139 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 4.2 ypr). Oakland should have plenty of success against a bad Detroit rush defense that is permitting 136 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.5 ypr). The Raiders also have a weak run defense, but this will be less of an issue today as Detroit is a passing offense that throws for 73% of their total offensive yards. Oakland has a solid pass defense that is permitting just 52.5% completions and only 6.3 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average 59.8% and 6.7 ypp).

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This line too low, especially now that it has dropped below the key number of '7' and there is excellent value with the Steelers at home laying just -6.5 points, especially since they were a 4-point road favorite at Cincinnati just two games ago and won outright 24-17. The Steelers dominated that game by more than the seven point margin and close yardage indicated as my re-scoring model using the drive charts had Pittsburgh winning the game by 12 points.

Many people wrote the Steelers off after a mediocre 2-2 (1-3 ATS) start to the season, but this is still the defending AFC champions and they are still one of the best teams in the league. Pittsburgh has since gone 6-1 SU in their past seven games and the main reason has been less turnovers. Pittsburgh is still -9 this season, but they have begun to improve with a +2 turnover margin the past six games, compared to a -11 margin in the first five games of the season.

Pittsburgh is a solid team on both sides of the ball and they have out-gained 9 of their 11 opponents this season and the only two games in which the Steelers did not hold the overall yardage edge was on the road versus solid Houston and Baltimore squads. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been good against bad teams, but Cincinnati has struggled when stepping up in class. In fact, the Bengals are 1-4 SU versus winning teams this season, while going 6-0 SU versus .500 or less opponents.

Cincinnati is a mediocre team on both sides of the ball and their biggest weakness this season has been a sub-par pass defense that allows 6.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 6.1 ypp). This will be a problem versus a strong Pittsburgh passing attack that is averaging 7.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow just 6.6 ypp). Pittsburgh is the better team on both sides of the ball today and the Steelers present solid value at home laying -6.5 or less.

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Kansas State is the most overrated team in the nation as the Wildcats are 9-2 SU/ATS this season, despite being out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.8 yards per play per game. The Wildcats have been winning mainly because of a +11 turnover margin. Overall, the 33.4 points per game they average is extremely misleading as Kansas State is averaging a weak 4.9 yards per play on offense (versus opponents that allow 5.5 yppl). They have been below average both rushing and throwing the ball, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and only 6.7 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 4.2 ypr and 7.1 ypp).

Kansas State is due for a letdown today as they are coming off three straight-up underdog wins and are now installed as a double-digit home favorite. The Wildcats are also coming off a bye week which might disrupt their momentum.

Iowa State is an underrated team that enters on a solid 4-1 ATS run which includes a pointspread cover versus Oklahoma last week and of course a huge outright win versus Oklahoma State two weeks ago as a +27 point underdog. The recent solid play by Iowa State coincides with the emergence of QB Jared Barnett who took over five games ago. Iowa State has a solid rushing offense that is averaging 178 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 4.1 ypr) and this strong ground attack should allow Iowa State to keep the game close today, especially if the weather becomes an issue as the forecast is calling for an 90% chance of showers.

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Texas has struggled offensively this season as the Longhorns are averaging just 5.5 yards per play (versus opponent that allow 5.8 yppl) and they have been particularly weak throwing the ball, averaging just 57.0% completions and only 6.9 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 60.9% and 7.3 ypp). Texas will likely struggle tonight against a strong Texas A&M defense that has faced a tough schedule of opposing offensive teams this season as the Aggies are allowing just 28.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 33.6 ppg and 6.0 yppl).

While Texas has been a weak offensive team, the Longhorns have been strong on defense, allowing just 20.6 points per game and only 4.5 yards per play (versus opponent that average 32.1 ppg and 5.8 yppl). The Longhorns suffered a misleading loss last week as they allowed just 121 total yards versus Kansas State and Texas should be able to limit a Texas A&M offense that will be without their top two running backs tonight as RB Christine Michael is out for the season with a knee injury, while RB Cyrus Gray is doubtful with a shoulder injury.

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The match-up and situation line up perfectly for a high-scoring game. Arizona comes into this game off their bye week, and NFL home underdogs with a week of rest have proven to be a good Over play. The theory behind it is simple. The Cardinals are a home underdog because the Steelers are perceived as the better team. Arizona knows this so their preparation during their extra week has been geared more towards offense because they know in order to win this game they will most likely have to out-score Pittsburgh. Home underdogs off a week of rest often play one of their best offensive games of the season because they’ve focused on that side of the ball for two weeks.

Arizona also played a terrible offensive game prior to their bye as they scored just 10 points in a loss at Minnesota. But in their two home games this season, the Cardinals have scored 28 and 27 points while putting up their two best yardage games of the season. Those two games also went Over the total with 49 and 58 points scored. In fact, 8 of Arizona’s last 10 home games have gone Over the total with all eight of those games having 47 points or more scored.

Pittsburgh’s defense has not played well on the road this season. The Steelers are allowing 24 points per game on the road compared to just 10 points per game at home. Pittsburgh’s offense was shutout in the second half last week by Jacksonville, so we expect the Steelers’ offense to be aggressive here. They are also talking about running a no-huddle offense in order to get into a better offensive rhythm. If that pans out, we anticipate a fast pace to this game since Arizona’s offense also likes to play an aggressive style of offense. Both offenses will be the best units on the field so we expect a wild, high-scoring game between the Steelers and Cardinals this afternoon.

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Pittsburgh has been a different team on the road than at home so far this season. In their three home games, the Steelers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. They won those three games by a combined 79-30. In their three road games, the Steelers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. Their lone win came by just 3 points over a terrible Indianapolis team; they’ve been out-scored in those three games by a combined 72-40. Now the Steelers have to make the long trip out to Arizona after playing a close game against a bad Jacksonville team. If Pittsburgh was the team of old, there’s no way the Jaguars, playing with a rookie quarterback, would have been a Hail Mary away from winning. The Jags held the Steelers scoreless in the second half, but Pittsburgh hung on for an uninspiring 17-13 win.

Arizona comes into this game off a much needed week of rest. The Cardinals were waxed 34-10 in Minnesota the week before their bye so there was plenty of motivation during their extra practice time. Arizona is also on a 4-game losing streak after winning their season opener so head coach Ken Whisenhunt will certainly have his team ready for a peak performance, especially with this game being against the Steelers. Whisenhunt is a disciple of the Pittsburgh coaching tree so anytime he faces his old employer, it’s a big deal. The last time was a 27-23 Super Bowl loss in 2008. The year before Arizona beat Pittsburgh 21-14 for Whisenhunt as a 6-point home underdog.

Under Whisenhunt, Arizona has been a home underdog 13 times; the Cardinals are 9-4 ATS in those games. And taking NFL home underdogs off their bye week has been one angle that we’re pretty fond of. Pittsburgh follows this road game up with a game at home against the New England Patriots and it just makes sense that they may be overlooking a struggling Arizona team that is just 1-4 on the season. The Cardinals are in a “must win” situation as a loss here basically puts an end to their season. Look for the Cardinals to be sharp after having an extra week to prepare and for the Steelers poor play on the road to continue.

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Atlanta needed three Carolina turnovers to win last week. Without those game-changing plays, it would have been a different outcome for the Falcons. They were out-yarded on the field (368-325) and out-gained 5.9 to 5.6 yards per play. Atlanta trailed going into the fourth quarter before scoring 17 points; they needed 26 plays to gain 142 yards over the final 15 minutes of the game. So the scoreboard reads like a blowout win for Atlanta, but it was hardly that. And the Falcons are taking a major step-up in class here against the Lions, especially with this game being played on the road with Detroit coming off a loss.

Detroit’s defense has gone unnoticed because of their offense. The Lions are ranked in the top 15 in the league overall and they present huge problems for opposing offensive lines with their strength along the defensive line. They rank 6th in the league against the pass (205 yards per game on 5.5 yards per pass) and they are allowing opponents to convert less than 30% of their third down attempts. With WR Julio Jones still questionable, the Falcons will be hard-pressed to stretch the Lions’ defense through the air. Atlanta actually has terrible passing numbers on offense this season, averaged just 6.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 7.6 ypp). Overall, the Falcons overrated offense is gaining just 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 6.2 yppl).

The Lions have thrown the ball well this season, but their rushing game has been mediocre and now Detroit must play without their best running back as Jahvid Best is likely to miss the game due to a concussion. Best has averaged 4.6 yards per rush this season while all of the other Detroit running backs have averaged less than 3.0 ypr. Atlanta has a solid rush defense that allows just 3.8 yards per carry (versus 4.6 ypr), so the Falcons should be able to control the line of scrimmage on defense today.

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The Chargers face a difficult scheduling situation today as they are a West Coast team that must travel across the country and play a 1 pm ET kickoff which is just 10 a.m. PT on their body clocks. This could leave the offense a bit rusty, especially after having a bye week. Overall, San Diego has put up some solid looking offensive numbers, but those results have a come against a terribly weak schedule of opponents which has included Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver who stand a combined 4-17 SU this season.

Overall, San Diego is only slightly above average on offense when factoring that weak schedule of opponents faced. In fact, the Chargers are averaging just 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 6.1 yppl). The New York Jets are a strong defensive team that is permitting just 5.4 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average 5.9 yppl), so New York’s defense holds the edge today. The Jets have been particularly strong defending the pass, allowing just 54.8% completions and only 6.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 59.1% and 7.3 ypp).

While the Jets have a solid defense, their offense has struggled this season. The 24 points they scored on Monday night versus the Dolphins was misleading as New York had a 100-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Overall, the Jets are averaging just 5.2 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 5.8 yppl). New York has been equally weak running and passing the ball this season, averaging just 3.3 yards per rush and only 6.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 4.0 ypr and 6.9 ypp).

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This game presents the rare opportunity to take a double-digit home underdog that holds a substantial edge in the rushing department. Eastern Michigan is averaging 229 rushing yards per game this season and 5.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 155 yards and 4.0 ypr). The Eagles have been even stronger at home, averaging 297 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry. Eastern Michigan should have plenty of success today against a terrible Western Michigan rush defense that is permitting 217 yards per game on the ground and 5.9 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.4 ypr). The Broncos’ rush defense has been even worse on the road where they are allowing 34.7 points and 283 rushing yards per game (6.9 yards per carry).

Eastern Michigan was just 2-22 SU in the first two seasons under current head coach Ron English, but teams often make their biggest improvements in a coach’s third season and that appears to be the case with the Eagles as they are already 4-3 SU with a winning record this year. This includes an impressive 35-28 outright win as an 11-point underdog at Central Michigan last week. There was nothing misleading about the win as the Eagles dominated the line of scrimmage with a 350-98 rushing advantage. Eastern Michigan has rushed for 326, 336, 228, and 350 yards in their four wins this season, while their three losses have all come against quality teams on the road at Michigan, Penn State, and Toledo who all possess solid rush defenses. That will not be the case today and Eastern Michigan presents excellent value as a double-digit home underdog in this game.

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This is a major letdown spot for Kansas State as they are coming off 4 outright underdog wins and are now installed as a double-digit road favorite. Kansas State qualifies in a negative 35-62 ATS situation today and this game should be closer than expected.

Kansas has struggled on defense this season, but the Jayhawks are a solid offensive team that is averaging 31.7 points per game and 425 total yards at 5.8 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 26.1 ppg and 5.3 yppl). Kansas is especially strong thru the air as they average 218 passing yards and 66.2% completions at 8.7 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 56.4% and 6.9 ypp). This strong passing attack will allow Kansas to keep the game close and also gives plenty of backdoor cover potential if needed.

Kansas State is not likely to take full advantage of the Jayhawks’ below average defense as Kansas State is averaging just 4.8 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 5.3 yppl). K-State has been particularly weak throwing the ball as they average just 6.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 7.1 ypp). Recent results have now inflated this line too high and there is value with the Kansas Jayhawks as a double-digit rival home underdog today.

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Oklahoma State is still unbeaten after winning and covering at Texas last week. The Cowboys won that game 38-26, but the game was much closer than that final score indicates. Texas rolled up 231 rushing yards on Oklahoma State’s defense; they averaged 4.7 yards per rush. And that is not a good sign coming into this game against a Missouri offense that averages 237 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.5 yards per rush. Overall, the Cowboys’ defense is allowing 27 points per game on 427 yards of offense per game. They are giving up 5.4 yards per play which is a terrible number for a highly ranked, undefeated team.

Missouri enters this game off a big 52-17 blowout win over Iowa State. That win gives them plenty of momentum coming into this game. Missouri’s offense is averaging 36 points and 497 yards per game; they are rushing and passing for over 200 yards per game and teams with that kind of offensive balance are extremely dangerous, especially as underdogs. Missouri has the offensive firepower to trade points with Oklahoma State, but the Tigers’ defense (20 points per game on 4.8 yards per play) is a solid unit that may be able to contain the Cowboys in this spot. Missouri has out-gained every opponent this season with the exception of Oklahoma; they lost yardage in that game 592-532 and they only lost that game by 10 points in Norman.

Oklahoma State’s opponents are a combined 17-16 SU this season so the Cowboys haven’t beaten much this season. This is a difficult scheduling spot for them as well as they are playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their fourth road game in their last five games. Undefeated teams on the road this late in the season seem to stumble as their schedule gets tougher. And considering Missouri is 29-5 at home over the last five years, we see some tremendous value in taking a full touchdown with them in this game.

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North Carolina deserved much better than their 30-24 home loss to Miami (Fla) last week. The Tar Heels actually out-yarded the Hurricanes 429-311 but a couple of critical turnovers cost them the game. Off that home loss as a favorite, North Carolina is now undervalued on the road as they are a double digit underdog against a Clemson team in which they were a 2½-point favorite against last season; the Tar Heels won that game 21-16 after holding the Tigers to just 305 yards of total offense. We expect North Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort in this game, especially since they can hand Clemson their first loss of the season.

Clemson comes in undefeated at 7-0. But the Tigers are not nearly as good as that record would indicate. Clemson has had the benefit of playing some weak offenses and they’ve been in a few favorable situational spots on their way to their perfect record. Take out their games against struggling offenses like Troy, Boston College, and Virginia Tech and Clemson’s defense has allowed 24 points or more in every game including games against Wofford, Auburn, and Maryland. Last week in College Park, the Terps put up 45 points to go along with 291 yards rushing. Clemson needed to out-score Maryland 21-7 in the 4th quarter to escape with a fortunate win. The Tigers are hanging on by a thread to their unbeaten record, and we expect a loss real soon.

North Carolina has been a scrappy team lately. Five of North Carolina’s last seven losses have come by 6 points or less. The Tar Heels ability to stay close is a testament to their defense that is allowing just 20 points per game on 5.2 yards per play. Clemson needs to run the ball to be successful, but they will be facing a solid North Carolina rush defense that is ranked 26th in the nation allowing 108 rushing yards per game on just 3.1 yards per rush. Tar Heels’ quarterback Bryn Renner has been fantastic. He is 7th in the nation in passing efficiently (174.1) and he has thrown for over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions. North Carolina also averages 160 yards per game on the ground so they should be able to run with success against a Clemson rush defense that is 83rd in the nation allowing 179 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush. The Tar Heels are stronger on the line of scrimmage, so we’ll take the generous points in this game.

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Wisconsin has been impressive this season as the Badgers have won all six of their games by at least 30+ points. However, they have only played one good team this year and that was Nebraska at home and the Cornhuskers have turned out to be a very mediocre defensive team this season, allowing 27.2 points per game and 373 yards (5.5 yards per play). This is also a very difficult scheduling situation for Wisconsin as they have not played a true road game all season as they have played five home games and one game on a neutral field.

Michigan State is a solid team. Their 31-13 loss at Notre Dame last month was misleading as the Spartans actually held a 21-18 first down edge and a 358-275 total yards advantage and were only out-gained 4.6-4.7 yards per play. Holding Notre Dame to only 275 total yards and 4.7 yards per play on the road is very impressive as the Irish are averaging 467 total yards and 6.6 yards per play in all games this season.

Michigan State is an excellent defensive team that also held Michigan to just 14 points and 250 total yards (3.7 yppl) last week. This is incredible considering Michigan was averaging 38.0 points and 458 yards per game (7.4 yppl) entering last week’s game. Overall this season, Michigan State has surrendered just 10.8 points per game and only 186 total yards at 3.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 26.9 ppg and 372 total yards at 5.6 yppl). The Spartans have been equally strong against the run and the pass, allowing just 2.2 yards per rush and only 4.4 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 4.7 ypr and 6.8 ypp). This is a live home underdog as Michigan State is allowing just 6.7 points per game at home this season which is actually less than tonight’s pointspread.

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No team in the NFL was in need of a bye week more than the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have been dealing with injuries to key players since Week 1, and after an emotional and heartbreaking loss to the Lions in their last game, the Cowboys needed a week off to heal up and refocus. QB Tony Romo has been playing through a rib injury that is close to being healed and he will have both of his best receivers in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on the field for the first time together since the season opener. The Cowboys have also struggled with injuries on defense, especially in the backfield where cornerback Orlando Scandricks’ ankle injury has played havoc with the DB rotation since Week 1. The injuries were bad enough that the Cowboys had not practiced in pads on Wednesday’s for the past three weeks. But it was something they were able to do this week.

The Patriots will face a “Ryan” defense for the second consecutive week after defeating Rex Ryan and the Jets last week. Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has the defense playing extremely well; Dallas is allowing just 292 yards per game while allowing just 5.1 yards per play. Last season, as defensive coordinator of the Browns, Ryan’s defense held the Patriots to only 283 yards of total offense and held Tom Brady to his lowest completion percentage (52%) of the season; the Browns won that game 34-14. We expect Ryan to call an aggressive game here, especially with the return of Scandrick whose main role will be to shadow Patriots’ slot receiver Wes Welker.

The Cowboys have had time to heal and they should be inspired by the fact that with the Giants and Eagles losing last week, a victory over New England could be the momentum they need to win their division moving forward. The Patriots own the league’s worst pass defense (327 yards per game on 8.4 yards per pass), and despite their early season injuries, the Cowboys will come into New England with the 3rd best passing game in the NFL (331 yards per game on 8.2 yards per pass). Look for a healthy and rested Dallas team to keep this one close throughout as they take this game right down to the wire.

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There is a theory in sports that some teams seem to play to the level of their competition. The New York Giants seem to fit into that category this season. After starting the season 3-1, the Giants laid a total egg against the Seahawks last week as a 9½-point home favorite. They lost that game 36-25, but they actually could have won the game late but a 94-yard interception return with just over a minute to play iced the game. Despite the loss, there were some positives to take away from the Giants’ play.

New York’s 5 turnovers were detrimental. But if we get past those terrible mistakes, we see that the Giants actually out-yarded the Seahawks 464-424. That may not seem significant, but knowing that the Giants were out-yarded by all four of their other opponents makes the accomplishment mean a little something. We also note that the Giants’ defense held Seattle to just 16 points through three quarters before giving up 20 points over the final 15 minutes of play. So even in an ugly loss to a bad team, the Giants actually played a decent football game.

While New York ended last week in disappointment, the Buffalo Bills were once again the talk of the league after notching a 31-24 home win over the Eagles. However, the Bills were thoroughly out-played in that game as they were out-yarded 489-331 but won thanks to a 5-1 turnover edge. In fact, the Bills have now been out-yarded in three straight games even though they’ve won two of those three games. The Bills have been a good story, but they cannot continue to rely on comebacks and turnovers to win games. Buffalo’s defense can be exploited as they are allowing 6.7 yards per play while ranking 26th against the pass and 29th against the run. With Buffalo in a prime letdown spot and New York looking to make amends for last week’s embarrassing loss, we’ll lay the short price today.

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We all know that Green Bay is a significantly better team than St. Louis. The Packers are undefeated at 5-0 while the Rams are winless at 0-4. But that is why this pointspread is grossly inflated. And when we dig a bit deeper into the scheduling and situation of the two teams coming into this game, we can clearly see that we’re getting a tremendous overlay with the big ugly road underdog.

St. Louis comes into this game off their bye week. And winless teams off a week of rest have been a long-term winning situation in the NFL, especially teams that have 4 losses or more which the Rams have. Teams in this situation are a perfect 14-0 ATS when they are underdogs of more than 5 points. This isn’t some meaningless trend because it makes a lot of sense and it actually fits this game perfectly. St. Louis has played as bad as they can so far this season, and their week off came at the perfect time. This is the game in which they’ll bring everything they’ve got, and considering Green Bay will most likely go through the motions here, we can take advantage of the inflated pointspread and play on a team that will definitely be on their ‘A’ game.

Green Bay is in a big letdown spot as they are off their big road win at Atlanta last Sunday night and play at divisional rival Minnesota next week before heading into their bye the following week. This isn’t an ideal spot for the Packers to play at a peak level, and that alone will allow the Rams to hang close throughout the game. Even though they are undefeated, the Packers have some serious defensive flaws. They are allowing 22 points per game and 376 yards of offense per game. Their biggest area of concern has been their pass defense; they are allowing opponents to throw for 300 yards per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Green Bay is in for a much tougher challenge than expected here so we’ll grab the big points with the desperate road underdog.

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After opening the season at 4-0 SU, last year’s disastrous season appeared to be in the past for the Texas Longhorns. But after a 55-17 loss to Oklahoma last week, the Longhorns’ ugly memories of a season ago have crept into some people’s minds. But we’re willing to draw a line through that game; Oklahoma is just a better team that caught Texas on a bad day. The Sooners’ defense scored 21 points in that game so if the Texas offense didn’t make so many mistakes, the final score would have been a bit more respectable.

Mack Brown and the Longhorns will be facing another offensive monster from the state of Oklahoma on Saturday. But this time Texas will be playing on their home field, a huge difference that will influence the outcome of this game. Oklahoma State’s offense is explosive; the Cowboys are averaging 51 points per game on 577 yards per game. However, their defense is not that good as they are allowing 28 points per game on 438 yards of offense per game. They are giving up 5.7 yards per play which is a terrible number for supposedly the 7th best team in the country. In their only game against a legitimate team so far, Oklahoma St was a 5-point road underdog at Texas A&M. And they trailed that game 20-3 at the half before rallying for a 30-29 win. What has changed in three weeks that has the Cowboys going from a 5-point road underdog to over a touchdown road favorite against two similar teams? It just doesn’t make any sense.

Oklahoma State’s opponents are a combined 13-14 SU this season, with Louisiana Lafayette accounting for 5 of those wins. The Cowboys’ defense is ranked 75th in the country and we expect Texas’ offense to run with good success and keep the ball away from Oklahoma State’s potent offense. The situation also favors Texas as they are coming off a blowout loss while Oklahoma St is coming off a blowout win. There’s no doubt that Texas will be focused coming into this game while Oklahoma State may not be after their 70-28 pounding on Kansas last week. This will also be the Cowboys third road game in their last four games, and with Texas not wanting to go into their bye week off back-to-back losses, we’ll grab the generous points today.

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Over the off-season, no one would have thought that the Buffalo Bills would have a better record than the Philadelphia Eagles coming into this game. But that is the case as the Eagles have struggled so far with a 1-3 record while the Bills are off to a quick 3-1 start. And the Eagles are still favored despite the difference in play; reputation is the only reason Philadelphia is laying points in this game. Both teams enter off a loss, but the Eagles had no excuse in blowing a 23-3 lead at home to the 49ers. We can give the Bills a pass for playing a lethargic game in Cincinnati last week after their emotional win over the Patriots the week before.

The Bills have flourished with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and running back Fred Jackson. Fitzpatrick has thrown for over 1,000 yards and he has a 9/3 TD/INT ratio after four games. Jackson is currently fourth in the league in rushing (369 yards on 5.8 yards per rush) and this balance has been a key to the Bills early season success. Philadelphia’s defense has been atrocious this season; they are allowing 25 points per game and 6.4 yards per play. And those numbers have come against three weak offensive teams in the Rams, Falcons, and 49ers. The Bills’ offense (33 points per game on 6.2 yards per play) should once again put-up big numbers on an Eagles’ defense that simply can’t stop anybody right now. Buffalo is #2 in the league in red zone efficiency at 75%. Philadelphia’s defense has been terrible in the red zone allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 80% of their trips.

Buffalo defensive coordinator George Edwards has been running a “hybrid” defense that forces mobile quarterbacks such as Mike Vick to stay in the pocket longer than they would like. And that takes away what Vick does best. Without being able to escape the pocket, Vick has proven that he is not a precision passer. He has to be on target here since the Bills’ secondary is tied for first in the league with eight interceptions. The bottom line in this game is the fact that the Eagles simply do not deserve to be favored based on the two teams play on the football field so far this season. So we’ll take the points with the team that is playing better football right now.

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This battle of left-handed pitchers should lead to a low-scoring game today as both offenses have been weaker against southpaws this season. The Phillies are averaging just 3.98 runs per nine innings with a .243 team batting average on the road versus LHP, compared to 4.23 runs and .246 versus RHP. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are averaging just 3.74 runs per nine innings with a .254 batting average at home versus LHP, compared to 4.74 runs and .267 versus RHP.

Both starters have pitched well this season. Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels has an excellent 2.75 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his 31 starts with a 193/44 strikeout/walk ratio and an 18-9 Under mark. He has also been strong on the road with a 2.85 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and 98/24 K/BB ratio. The Cardinals’ Jaime Garcia has struggled a bit on the road, but he has been excellent at home with a 2.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his 15 home starts with a 76/26 K/BB ratio. Garcia also enters in solid current form with a 2.41 ERA and 0.96 WHIP his past three starts.

Both pitchers have also been strong versus today’s opponent as Hamels has a 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his nine career starts versus the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Garcia has an amazing 0.96 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his four career starts versus the Phillies, including allowing just 1 earned run in 15 innings this season.

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UNLV was in a tough spot last week as they were coming off a physical nationally televised loss at Wisconsin on opening night. The Rebels then had to travel to Washington State who is an underrated team this season and the Cougars won easily 59-7. The situation is now more favorable for UNLV this week as they return home. We also get adjusted line value based on the back-to-back blowout losses.

UNLV actually moved the ball well offensively at Wisconsin as the Rebels gained 292 total yards and scored 17 points against a solid Badger’s defense. UNLV should have more success tonight at home against a Hawaii defense that allowed 40 points and 466 total yards last week at Washington. Hawaii’s pass defense has been particularly weak this season, permitting 9.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 8.5 ypp). The Warriors have also been a weaker team on the road over the years when playing away from the Islands.


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Temple has become a winning team the past two seasons, going 9-4 SU in 2009 and 8-4 SU last season in 2010. The Owls are also 2-0 ATS versus Penn State the past two seasons and Temple has an excellent chance of keeping this game close again this season and maybe pulling the outright upset.

This is a possible letdown spot for Penn State after their loss versus Alabama last weekend. It was a physical game and now Penn State must go from being a double-digit home underdog to a full touchdown road favorite. It is hard to imagine Penn State will be as focused for this game after just playing Alabama, while it is a huge game for Temple.

Temple has played well this season under new head coach Steve Addazio who was the former offensive coordinator at Florida. Temple has averaged 41.5 points per game and 445 total yards at 6.7 yards per play this season. Temple’s defense has been equally as impressive this year, allowing just 5.0 points per game and 272 total yards at 4.4 yards per play. Temple should be able to contain a Penn State offense that has struggled throwing the ball this season, averaging just 40.7% completions and just 4.4 yards per pass.

Penn State has struggled recently against quality teams. In fact, the Nittany Lions are just 2-7 ATS since last year in games when they are laying -9 points or less or an underdog.

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Tulsa played better than their 47-14 loss at Oklahoma would seem to have indicated two weeks ago. It was the first road game under new head coach Bill Blankenship and Tulsa still managed to gain 400 yards in total offense. Tulsa finally converted their yardage to points last week at Tulane in an easy 31-3 road win as a 13-point favorite. Tulsa held a 412-235 total yard edge and had a balanced offensive attack with 166 rushing yards and 246 passing yards. Overall this season, Tulsa is averaging 4.3 rushing yards (versus opponents allowing just 3.8 ypr) and 8.0 yards per pass (versus opponents allowing just 7.6 ypp).

Tulsa should have continued offensive success tonight against a suspect Oklahoma State defense that allowed 26.4 points per game last season and returned just five defensive starters to this year’s squad. Oklahoma State has allowed 5.2 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average just 5.1 yppl) and the Cowboys permitted 34 points versus Louisiana Lafayette two weeks ago and then Oklahoma State allowed Arizona to gain 439 total yards last week.

This is the home debut for Tulsa’s new head coach, plus it is a major revenge game for the Golden Hurricane after being embarrassed at Oklahoma State last season in a 65-28 loss. Tulsa still gained 428 yards in that loss, but they were done in by 3 interceptions. Tulsa is a better and more experienced team this season with 17 returning starters and they present solid value as a double-digit home underdog tonight.


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This is one of the most important games of the season as the winner will have an inside track towards the BCS championship game, while the loser will probably be on the outside looking in for the rest of the season. Oklahoma is the current #1 team in the nation, but they still have a suspect defense that allowed nearly 22 points per game last season and a mediocre 5.1 yards per play. Oklahoma has only played one game this season and defense did not perform well, allowing 400 total yards and 6.1 yards per play versus Tulsa on September 3rd. The Sooner’s rush defense allowed 4.2 yards per carry and the pass defense was particularly poor, allowing 8.2 yards per pass.

Florida State should be able to exploit this suspect Oklahoma defense tonight as the Seminoles are an explosive offensive team that averaged 31.4 points per game last season and 6.0 yards per play. Florida State should be even stronger offensively this season as they return 8 offensive starters, including their top 3 rushers and top 8 receivers from 2010. FSU did lose QB Christian Ponder to the NFL, but junior QB EJ Manuel is perhaps more talented and Manuel is ready for a breakout season now as the full-time starter. The Seminoles have moved the ball well in their first two games this season, averaging 48.0 points per game and 509 total yards at 7.2 yards per play.

Florida State also has a major revenge motive from an embarrassing 47-17 road loss at Oklahoma last season. There was nothing misleading about that result, but it was early in the season and Florida State is a stronger and more veteran team this year. The Seminoles also have a solid defense that can keep Oklahoma’s explosive offense in check. Florida State is allowing just 5.0 points per game and only 137 total yards at 2.6 yards per play so far this season.

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This is a difficult and dangerous scheduling situation for Arizona State as the Sun Devils are coming off an important national TV home win in overtime last Friday night versus Missouri. It was an emotional game for ASU as the stadium was a “Black Out” with the fans and players wearing all black. Arizona State blew a double-digit lead in the second half of play and needed overtime for their eventual 37-30 win. Arizona State’s pass defense was suspect in that win, allowing 319 yards through the air and overall this season the Sun Devils have permitted 6.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 5.9 ypp).

Illinois is a solid offensive team that is averaging 44.5 points per game this season and 496 yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 6.0 yppl). The Illini are coming off back-to-back easy double-digit home wins versus Arkansas State (33-15) and South Dakota State (56-3). Illinois rushed for 364 yards on the ground last week and overall they are averaging 283 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry this season. The Illini’s passing offense has been even stronger, averaging 77% completions and 9.9 yards per pass so far.

This balanced Illinois offense should have success tonight against an Arizona State team in a difficult scheduling situation. Illinois also has a solid defense that has allowed just 9.0 points per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.

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Email me for a FREE copy of my Blitz Report Weekly football newsletter ($10 value):

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