Charlie Scott from Charlie Scott Sports

New Mexico beat Wyoming at Wyoming by 10, but game was never that close, Expect UNLV to do the same.

Iowa St Coach Hoiberg has done a nice job in yr 2 bringing talented tranfers that would make former UNLV Coach Jerry Tarkanian jealous. Speaking of UNLV, Former Coach Kruger is now at OK and while his team plays hard on defense, struggle's to score on offense. Iowa St is the better Team, not known Nationally getting points. PLAY IOWA ST !

This is NOT the N Iowa team of seasons past, they have some talent, but are very young ,and miss their Point guard from last seasson who started all 4 yrs. While Creighton is loaded with talent and has a talented Sr Point guard. Creighton is the much better team, and I look for them to win Today @ N Iowa. PLAY CREIGHTON !

With a Total this low, everything must go wrong for this game to stay under, a scoring spurt, a couple of 3's, fouling at the end of gm, and this gm is OVER. Wisconsin is a much better shooting Team at Home. Although, both Teams play good defense, they have good outside shooters, and a good inside-out offense's. Plus Ohio St will run & push the ball down the court when given the opportunity. PLAY OVER !

Big rivalry DOG !

Orlando bounces back after Howard calling teamates quitters

Play against Bad Teams laying Points Theory

Big In-State Rivalry, I'll try the dog.

Wiseguys & Sharps are on AF expecting letdown after beating UNLV & New Mexico.

I expect New Mexico to be focused & bounce back after a lackluster loss at home to San Diego ST as 10 point favorites. This is a big rivalry in the Mountain West, the Lobos lost 62-63, Won 76-66 and lost 58-60 their last 3 yrs in games vs UNLV at Vegas. UNLV struggles when their offense can't get out & run and get easy baskets, and are forced to play half court. After Wednesday's lackluster play vs SDST, I expect Coach Alford to get after his team which starts with defense & effort. UNLV won't get many easy Baskets Tonight. Take the Points & the LOBOS !

I'm Not buying into Wyoming's 15-3 record so far this season, as it is made up of mostly Non-Conference cupcakes. Colorado St is a live dog that should win out right in what is a pretty big rivalry for these schools. Larry Shyatt takes over a rebuilding project at Wyoming that is a couple of yrs behind Colorado St. PLAY COLORADO ST !

I wouldn't play Over a total of 50 or higher during the regular season in the NFL, but it's worth a play Today in the Playoffs. Both Teams have offense's that are very good at throwing the ball & defense's that can't stop the pass ! When these 2 teams played on DEC 11 the Total was 54 and the Packers won 38-35 and neither offense had any resistance in making big plays downfield.
Expect the same Tonight, PLAY OVER !

Wiseguy's & sharps are on this Over as it's a low total in an offensive league. Both teams defense's have nice stats, but most of those stats came against poor offensive teams. While both teams have playmakers on offense who can score + defense's that can score and good special return teams.
PLAY OVER !

SDST has exceeded expectations in Non-conference play as this was expected to be a rebuilding yr. SDST lost Kawhi Leonard & Malcolm Thomas to the NBA and Billy White and PG Gay to Europe off last Years team. While UNLV returns everyone, but Tre'von Willis, but replaces Willis with UCLA transfer Moser who's better. UNLV's JR/SR team has revenge since they have lost 5 straight to SDST in this big MountainWest rivalry. SDST is a pretty young team, with only 1 real weapon Guard Chase Tapley, However UNLV has good defensive guards in Oscar Bellfield and Justin Hawkins. The matchup also favors UNLV as SDST likes to play small with a 4 Guard lineup, while UNLV can run the floor and go big with talent. Play UNLV at this cheap price !

The Saints have won 9 straight, straight up. While the Niners have the perfect formula for regular season wins, good special teams and can run the ball on offense & stop the run on defense, You need playmakers to make plays in the Playoffs to be successful. The Saints have the weapons on offense & a Coach in Payton that isn't afraid to open it up and gamble. While this is the Niners Under Coach Harbaugh's first time in the postseason. I expect the Saints defense to blitz Niners QB Alex Smith and force Smith to beat them with his arm, which is exactly what the Niners don't want. Expect the Saints to Win & Cover !
PLAY SAINTS !

Can't understand why Auburn is favored, except for name brand, Playing in the Chick Filet Bowl, after playing in & winning the National Championship gm with Cam Newxton at QB Last Year.
Since their last gm of the regular season, Auburn has lost their coordinators (Guz Mahlzan) Off Genius and star RB Dwyer. Virginia should be excited to play in this Bowl gm as this is Virginia's first Bowl game under Coach Mike London, I expect them to play physical and push Auburn around.
PLAY VIRGINIA !

I made this 1 of my Best Bets in TheLasVegasSportsLine.com Bowl Blowout contest and still feel Iowa St is a good bet. Iowa St is the better team, much more potent offense from a better conference, with a tougher schedule. One common opponent is at U Conn who beat Rutgers 40-22, Iowa St Won @ UConn 24-20. More importantly, Iowa St seems excited to be playing in Yankee Stadium and staying in NY, while for the Rutgers kids it's not a vacation at all, but yet just another day in the Hood across the river !
PLAY IOWA St !

Although Air Force & Service Academies are generally a good bet ATS in Bowl games, Air Forces results vs good passing Teams has me on Toledo Today. Look at Air Forces record this season (0-5 s/u) vs Bowl teams that can also pass : TCU 19-35, Notre Dame 33-59, SDST 27-41, Boise St 26-37, Wyoming 17-25. Air Force just doesn't have the athletic ability & speed on defense to match up vs quality offense's and then once behind by a decent margin, struggle to play catch up because they can't pass downfield & run the triple option on offense. PLAY TOLEDO !

I made this total 45.

The wiseguys/ sharps jumped on Seattle +3 after the Niners beat the Steelers Monday Night. Now all the value is gone and we're getting the better team with the better Coaching staff, defense +50 yds rush adv per game. Coaches Harbaugh and Carrol don't like each other from their College Days, I expect the Niners to show up and play hard Today. Seattle is on a nice run, but in reallity how many good playoff contending teams have they beaten ?

Bad Total ?

Expected letdown for KC after beating previously undefeated Packers. Play against bad teams as favorite theory applies.

S Miss Coach quit to take North Carolina job. According to school officials he was the only 1 who wanted to go to Hawaii. S Miss players will use this Bowl gm as a vacation and Not show up.

Let's see if the Chargers can beat a quality, physical team like Baltimore. I'm betting NO.

Gut Play

Gut Play

This matchup is 2 Teams that struggle on defense, especially vs the pass, and play undiciplined on defense getting stupid penalties. Nice weather is forecasted.
In games with a closing Total of 47 or less the Lions are 8-3 Over this season, while the Raiders have gone Over in 5 of their last 6 games.
PLAY OVER & PLAY EARLY !

Giants have a prolific offense led by Eli Manning & a terrible defense that can't stop the pass.

Wiseguys & sharps are on Louisiana and the reasoning makes sense. To start with Louisiana is motivated, this being their first Bowl game since 1970, and their playing in their Home State Louisiana in the Saints SuperDome, plus their fans are buying into this Bowl as their ticket allotment sold out quickly.
On the other side of the ball SDST doesn't want to be in this Bowl gm. I know for a fact that while SDST Head Coach Rocky Long was at New Mexico, his teams did Not fully prepare for the Bowl game, Rocky's philosophy was to use Bowl practice to prepare the Younger players for next season. Rocky Long's Bowl record is 1-4 s/u & ATS.
PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE !

Wyoming is a scrappy, well coached Team, with a playmaking Freshman QB that is playing well without a public following. Not only is Wyoming underratted by the public, their also underratted by the oddsmaker having covered their last 4 games as a dog. Temple from Philly, should have a tough time adjusting to the altitude of Albuquerque, while Wyoming is used to playing at high altitudes and playing in Albuquerque, having won a regular season game here this yr and winning the New Mexico Bowl in 09 35-28 vs Fresno St.
PLAY on WYOMING !

Public expects a low scoring gm, I'll go the other way !

This line looks low to me, I had the Saints -7 -7.7. I'm not buying into the Titans yet who struggle to stop the pass on defense vs a Saints team who's whole offense is based on passing. Nice weather is expected, I expect the Saints to be able to name their score.

I'll keep riding the Jets OVER low Totals !

The Redskins offense is playing better with rebirth of QB Grossman WR Moss & RB Helu. Both offense's should struggle running the ball & be forced to pass. Both offense's have weapons on off & Special return teams. The Jets are 3-1-1 OVER 38 their last 5 games. This is a low Total for Today's NFL, I made it 41-42.
PLAY OVER !

Here's the Play I used in the Las Vegas Review Journal for Sunday's Hot Corner. The Falcons are a pretty well balanced playoff contender who has won 5 of their last 6 games s/u. Due to injuries, 3rd string rookie QB TJ Yates will be making his first start in the NFL. While playing in College at North Carolina Yates struggled at times making poor decisions passing the ball. Yates will struggle Today vs the Falcons ! I would expect this to be a close game if the Texans had Schaub at QB, with Yates, Expect a Falcon Win & Cover ! PLAY ATLANTA FALCONS !

Fresno St is un motivated with nothing to play for Today, but to finish the season. SDST will be able to run the ball & the clock tonight, while Rocky Long teams don't usually run up scores. SDST's defense has NOT allowed more than a TD per gm in the second half ALL season. SDST is 4-1 Under 60 their last 5 games.
PLAY UNDER !

Boise St has had 3 games where they were favored by -30 or more losing ATS 1-2. I like Freshman QB Smith of Wyoming, this kid is a playmaker. Wyoming has been playing good football & winning in the Mountain West, but playing under the media radar. Wyoming largest role as a dog this season was +18.5, twice, Wyoming Won 1 of those games S/u covering both games.
Take the Points & Wyoming

The Dolphins first game of the season went Over and now the next 9 Miami games have gone Under. The Cowboys are 4-2 Under 44 their last 6 games. This Total is inflated due to the Cowboys being a public team playing on Thanksgiving. I made this Total 38. Expect with such a short time to prepeare that both teams play pretty conservative ! PLAY UNDER !

The Packers will come into Today's game with the Lions focused and play with revenge from last season. Last Year the Lions knocked out their QB Rogers for a couple of games with a concussion as the Packers lost 3-7. The Lions defense struggles vs good pasiing teams, The Packers in a dome pass like Rogers is playing a video game ! Advantage Green Bay ! The Packers are 7-3 ATS 10-0 S/u all 3 spread losses have been as Double Digit Favorites. -6 is a cheap price for the superior Team with motivation ! GO CHEESE HEADS !

Weather forecast calls for a 40% chance of showers. I made this Total 50 and believe that for Oregon St to have a chance of winning, their going to have to keep the score as low as possible. Oregon St is 5-2 Under 58 in their Pac 12 games this season. Joe Montana's son is expected to make his first start at QB for Washington Today.
PLAY UNDER this high TOTAL !

I expect TCU to be hungover from Boise St upset last week.

Texas Tech can score with Mizzou. I don't forsee a Win 1 for the DWI Gipper ! Take the generous points

Gut Play

In Playing Louisville we'll get a motivated team off a loss & take advantage of a bad line. Louisville lost last week 14-21 to Pittsburgh. After the game Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong (who is 1 of the better young Coaches in College Football) blamed his Louisville team poor play on his players spending way too much time playing a new warfare video game on Play station or X Box that came out last week. Louisville is Coached well and has 1 of the better unknown defense's in NCAAF, while UConn is rebuilding. According to mine & other Handicappers that I respect power ratings, Louisville should be -5 or -6 Today.
PLAY LOUISVILLE !

This is a low Total for Giant games as their Totals average 46 points. Giants come off a s/u Win at the Patriots last week, where the Giants defense played their best game in Years. Expect the Giants defense to return to mediocrity Today. Niners can also make plays on Special Team returns. When the Niners have played good teams this season, ALL 3 games have gone OVER 42, vs Dallas 24-27, Eagles 24-23, Lions 25-19. Nice weather forecasted Expect the same Today !

These 2 teams are headed in different directions as the Rams are getting healthier and still playing hard, while the Browns are banged up, fighting with the Coaching staff & QB. I expect the Rams to be able to run the ball at will Today with RB Stephen Jackson, & Browns to do their typical struggle on offense. Play against Bad Teams as Favorite's theory applies.

Gut/Feel Play

Michigan St squares off against an Iowa team that isn't as good as season's past. Matchup favors Michigan St as Iowa's defense isn't as good as it nornally is, and I feel Michigan St should be able to run the ball on offense, which will then open up their passing game. Iowa's inept offense is the perfect fit for Michigan St's defense which is good vs the run, but struggles vs good passing team's . Iowa off an upset to Michigan, should have Michigan St focused Today. The line of -2.5 -3 seems a little low since my Power ratings had Michigan St-6

Michigan has the better players & Coaching staff. My power rating line was -7

Quality dog, getting inflated points with Pats coming off loss

Price is right.

In my opinion the wrong Team is favored, as Syracuse is in Year #3 of Head Coach Marrone rebuilding job. Meanwhile former Syracuse Coach Pasqualoni is in Year #1 at U Conn, and doesn't have much talent leftover from former U Conn Coach Edsall who took off for greener pastures at Maryland. Now U Conn & Coach Paqualoni have new systems & schemes alot to learn without much talent. Syracuse get's revenge for losing to U Conn s/u the last 4 Years. PLAY SYRACUSE

Play against the Texans as DD Favorites

Expect NAVY to struggle scoring, but have time consuming drives

Playing Byu getting almost 2 TD's Tonight just makes good sense in this spot. BYU has a 5 gm winning streak s/u and has covered their last 5 games as underdogs. BYU has also shown they can play on the road this season, Winning S/U at Mississippi & Oregon St and losing 16-17 at Texas.
TCU has 2 S/U losses this season at Baylor 48-50 and vs SMU 33-40. TCU has shown this season that their defense struggles vs teams that can Pass and also struggle vs Teams that can match up with them physically and Not be pushed around. BYU can do both pass on offense and play physical.
PLAY the Mormons to keep this game close !

I'll Take my chances with QB Beck and the better defense and experienced Coaching staff getting points, Shop for +3

Tampa is the more physical team with the better running game.

The Bookies have Not kept it a secret that the Public Top 10 College Teams have been Winning & Winning Big No matter how high the line is. Boise St is 1 of those public Teams ! Air Force is a quality disciplined team and keep in mind that the Boise defense while very good is Not used to playing against the option. Using Last week's Gold Sheet Power Rating Boise st should be -23.
I went back 5 Years and the most I could find Air Force as a dog is 1 game +20 and another +19.
This Season at home vs TCU AF was a +1.5 dog, at Notre Dame +14.5 today @ Boise +30, just doesn't make sense.
PLAY AIR FORCE !

Since Over's are cashing at a rate greater than 65% this season, The Totals are inflated a couple of points each week. However, I feel we have a Winning Over here since the price is right and the teams matchup for an Over. The Steeler defense is suffering from injuries an old age and are a step or 2 slower this season. The way to beat JAX defense is through the pass and Steelers QB Big Ben has the weapons at skill positions to do so. For JAX on offense this is QB Gabbert's 4th NFL Start, JAX should be able to take advantage of some mismatches since the Steelers also struggle to stop the pass. PLAY OVER !

After Steve Spurrier threw a temper tantrum this week at his press conference, we should get a focused, motivated, South Carolina team that is loaded with talent ready to play Today. With QB Stephen Garcia recently dismissed from the team for what SC calls discipline problems, but the internet rumors say Garcia is being investigated for point shaving allegations.
When the Arizona St Basketball team was being investigated by the Feds a couple of yrs ago for their role in point shaving, then Head Coach Bill Freider Told his team at half time, "If You Boys ain't doing anything wrong You better go out there and prove it & Win Big."
Expect the same kind of speech from Spurrier this week !
The line of -3 looks pretty cheap considering the way QB Garcia was playing there's not much of a downside to QB Shaw, + SC has a very good running game with RB Lattimore and 1 of the best defense's in NCAAF.
GO COCKS !

Here's a game where I feel the better Team is the dog and the motivated dog ! This season when Air Force has played bigger stronger teams, they have been pushed all over the field (Notre Dame last week & TCU). Injuries to players on Air Forces defense won't help. SDST's defense has already played against option teams twice this season winning games vs Cal Poly & Army.
About 8 yrs ago I attended a New Mexico Booster function in the offseason where Rocky Long spoke, now at the time Fisher DeBerry was the Coach at Air Force, However Rocky came right out and said he despised Air Force and had that game circled every Year.
TAKE THE DOG +7 !

What a difference a couple of months and a Super Bowl. When these 2 met in the Playoffs in AtL last yr the line was around PK.

Can't lay points with a team that hasn't even won a game s/u this season.

Last week I gave out NMST PK vs NM is the Ugly game, Tonight we go to Nevada's state rivalry for a Winner. It won't be pretty, but Money is Money. UNLV's defense is averaging giving up 43 points per gm, While Nevada Reno's Def gives up 37 per gm. UNLV had a bye week last week to prepare and I do feel the Offense will be prepared, while UNLV's defense needs alot more than a week off. Nevada Reno's Coach Ault takes Nevada this rivalry very serious and Loves to run up the score on UNLV. Coach Ault was also upset at his offense & QB's this week because of the way they played last week vs Boise. Nice Weather & Lots of Points is Forecasted.

I'm not going to try and hype this game and try and get You to watch it instead of other games being played in this same time slot like Notre Dame/Purdue or Bama/Florida. In fact I have action on both games and plan on watching them, but money and Wins all count the same and doesn't know how bad these teams are. Since we've already established both teams are bad, lets pick the less of 2 evils. NM ST plays hard and is somewhat organized under Head Coach Dewayne Walker. While NM just fired their incompetent Head Coach Locksley and Def Coo Barlow takes over as interm. These 2 Coaches have met before, because Locksley was suspended 2 yrs ago for beating up an assistant Coach and Barlow replaced him then vs NMST. I did watch that game and can tell You while both teams were equally bad, The NM side line was under chaos with NO leadership. I understand from my NM Booster buddies that most New Mexico players have been busy this week, contacting old Coaches and looking for a school to tranfer to next semester. Last week NM lost to a Div 1 AA school Sam Houston @ Home on Homecoming, while just a couple of weeks ago NMST went into Minnessotta & won s/u. I don't believe the "Win 1 for the Gipper" Theory will apply Tonight, Play NMST Go AGGIES ! Ps- I can't believe I wrote so much on this game

Air Force returns the better veteran squad 58 Letterman to Navy's 38. Better team getting Points in Big gm. Shop & get the +3.5.

Another game where the theory of bet against bad teams as favorite applies. The better team the Dolphins are getting points. The Browns are in year #1 of a new Coaching staff, with new offensive & defensive schemes. Browns QB McCoy is still learning and doesn't have talented playmakers to bail him out. Miami has had success on the road in the past Under Sparano and after losing to the Pats and Texans will welcome a win vs the lowly Browns.
PLAY MIAMI !

A wiseguy play on an improved NMSt team and a bet against a bad team as a double digit favorite.

As Conference Play begins and Coaches know their opponents, I expect lower scoring games. I expect these 2 Teams to play a slug it out competitve game.
The Totals set by the oddsmaker for Cal's 2 games this season were 49 & 48, while Washington had totals of 51 & 53. When these 2 Teams matchup the last 5 yrs only 1 game has gone Over 58.
PLAY UNDER this inflated # !

The Cowboys actually outplayed the Jets last Sunday night and should have won s/u if not for some unneccessary mistakes by Cowboy QB Romo. I don't think the 49er's are a good team, and feel Romo & the Cowboys bounce back Today.

As I stated on the www.thelasvegassportsline.com Friday night radio show, I feel the offense's are ahead of the defense's this time of the season because of the labor lockout and limited amounts of training camp & practice time. This is a relatively low total for Today's NFL, where as Fezzik stated at the Vegas Insider seminar Teams get penalized for tackling. Raiders pass defense is bad, so I look for Bills QB Fitzpatrick to have another good day in YR#2 of the Gailey system, while the Raiders have enough weapons at skill positions & special teams to also score some points. Make no mistake about it, although the Bills defense played well lw @ KC, they won't be confused with the 86 Bears.
PLAY OVER !

A week ago before KC got blown out by Buffalo the line was the Lions-3. Detroit has become a public team since they beat the Patriots in week#3 of the PreSeason. The NFL stands for Not For Long, I don't think the Lions are as good as they played last week, nor do I think KC is as bad as they looked last week.
Play KC & Take the extra Points.

I along with alot of other wiseguys believe that KC will regress this season after having 1 of the easiest schedules in the NFL last Yr. Throw in that KC didn't even try to compete in the PreSeason and rarely practiced in pads this summer. It might not show in the Bills record, but they will be improved in yr 2 of Gailey system.
KC -5 is too many Points for a bad team to be laying.
PLAY BILLS !

This low total along with a Giants defense that looks like a mash unit all adds up to OVER. We saw with the Saints/GB game that with the labor layoff and shortened practices that right now offense's are ahead of the defense's. Plus special tms coverage's have been terrible and will be for at least a month. Also adding up to the over is that either QB can throw a TD or a pick 6.
Play OVER !

As I stated in Giant/Redskin write up, I believe offense's will be ahead of defense's & special tms coverage will be bad to start the season this yr, and going Over low Totals is a winning strategy. ATL with QB Ryan has weapons on OFF to score points, while opposing OFF can pass on the ATL Def. This is the Bears 2nd Season now under OFF COO Martz which should see a rise in scoring. Bears QB Cutler has plenty of motivation after the way he left his teamates in Playoff loss to GB.
This Total should be 44
PLAY OVER !