Bill Milton from Triple Threat Sports

These two teams met earlier this season and the final score was 24-20, and that was thanks to a 31 point explosion in the fourth quarter! The game was scoreless at the half and had only three points on the board after 36 minutes of play. People see the offensive numbers that Brady and Manning have put up, and past high scoring Super Bowls, and think Over, but we feel that is the wrong way to look at this game. New England has quietly played very sound defense in the post season (allowed just 31 points in two games) and the Giant defense has been great lately as well. Note also that NY was gifted some points in the NFC Championship Game. A look at recent SB history also points Under, as six of the last seven games have gone Under this number, as have three of the four recent SB's that the Patriots have been in. We see a 26-23 or 24-21 type score here, so the Under gets the call.

These two teams met earlier this season, in El Paso, and the Miners smoked the Cougars, winning by 20 points. However, a look at the boxscore shows that Utep shot 61% from the field in that game and 57% from long range while going to the free throw line almost triple the times of the Cougars, with UH getting just 2 points from free throws. Now that the venue has changed expect the zebra edge to shift as well. Note also that Utep is 0-6 SU on the road this season and Houston while Houston has lost four of five, they did post a win in their last game (here, against East Carolina) and prior to that had lost to Memphis, UCF, and SMU - with the latter of those three games coming on the road. Prior to that stretch the Cougars had won five in a row at home, and as mentioned they just beat ECU here in their last contest. Home team with all of the edges mentioned above, plus free throw and rebounding advantages, gets the call in this one.

Golden Eagles have a nice record but the competition level has not been strong, and I really do like this UCF team, especially at home where they are 11-0 SU on the season. I do not see S Miss stepping up in class well, so I will lay the small number.

MTSU is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this year while Vandy is 1-4 ATS as home chalk of this range. For one more number, note that VU is off a win against Tennessee, and since 2003 the Commodores are just 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS after a win over the Vols!

Just do not think Alabama is as good as others feel they are. With this line climbing from its opener I have no choice but to take the points here.

Pitt is 0-7 SU in conference play, and is laying doubles against a conference foe. Yes, they have owned PC in the past...but they were never 0-7 in the past either. Was going to pass at +8, but now I have no choice...give me the points.

Rockets come into this winners of seven in a row and playing with a great deal of confidence. Milwaukee does have a recent nice win over the Heat, but that was a banged up and tired Miami team, so the impressiveness of that win is dampened a bit. This is also their fourth game in six nights while Houston has had a rest day in between each of their last two contests. A look at the numbers shows that Houston is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS this season as chalk, going 4-1 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, while Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS against Western Conference teams. Finally, note that the Rocket are the better free throw shooting and rebounding team, and that the home team was 2-0 ATS in this series last year.

Our get feeling was rewarded on Saturday as Notre Dame got the win and cover against the Orange, but we got some unexpected help along the way when Fab Melo was suspended for the ND game just a couple of hours before the opening tip. He is still out for this one, but now the team knew it was coming, and Boheim - who has seen it all in his career - spent yesterday prepping his team for a game without Melo, whereas on Saturday everyone was kind of winging it. Also, this is not the "20th Win Hangover" game anymore, and in fact we look for an even more focused Cuse team after that loss. Cincy is a nice team, but just do not think they have the horses to stay with Syracuse in this one, and note that the Cuse is better free throw and rebounding team, and has won each of the last two meetings by at least 15 points

Milwaukee off a very tough last second loss on Thursday and now have to travel to Cleveland in a very important conference game. Both of these teams are solid, but CSU has the better overall talent and better resume for the season, and is host. Those things tip the scales in favor of the Vikings, and also note that CSU is vastly better from the free throw line than is UWM, as the Vikings are hitting 74% of their free throws at home this season while UWM making a paltry 56% of their free throw attempts in road games this year. This struggle from the line is a big reason Milwaukee has dropped five in a row on the road and is 2-6 ATS away from home this season. On the other hand CSU has won four of five at home, each of those coming by at least ten points. We will lay the points in this one.

Going against grain here, as Packers defense has been the star of the show the last four times they have had a bye week to prep, allowing just three points overall in the last two such games. Giants currently stout stop unit, and the elements, also point to an Under.

Buffalo is in an Ohio U/Akron sandwich here and as such could overlook a Miami team that is better than their overall record shows. Consider that while the RedHawks are 1-4 SU in their last five games, the losses have come against Ohio State, Vanderbilt, and the two top teams in the MAC, Akron and Kent State. Three of those games came on the road, and despite all of that the only contest that was not competitive was the Ohio State game. We look for UM to play well again here, and now that the competition has leveled off, to get a win, especially noting that the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in this series the last two seasons.

Both of these teams are playing in their third game in four days, but it is the Spurs are at home and thus better rested. In a game pitting two pretty evenly matched teams, that rest edge is crucial. Note also that - even without Ginobli - the Spurs have been super tough at home, going 7-0 SU with the smallest win coming by four points, with the others coming by six or more. The venue is also key since the Blazers have dropped two of the three road games they have played this season, with the last one being a BIG loss to the Suns. Finally, while the records are similar note that San Antonio has played the tougher schedule to date. Look for the Spurs to win this one late.

Steelers have played to seven straight OVERS in the post season...good enough for me to fade the public

Last season Tulane started out super strong at 12-3...and finished 13-17 - getting a dose of reality once conference play started. This season Tulane started out 12-2 but dropped their first conference game and now faces another strong C-USA team in Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have lost just two games this year, one in double OT to undefeated Murray State and the other at Denver - one of the toughest places to play in the nation. USM has positively dominated this series, winning 63-47, 67-54, 57-47, 66-57, and 58-40 since 2010, and already this year they have beaten Arizona State and Colorado State on the road. A look at the stats shows that Southern Miss is 5-1 ATS as away chalk of this range while Tulane is 0-6 ATS as home chalk of this range, 0-9 SU vs conference teams of this defensive class, and 1-19 SU vs C-USA teams with a winning record! Finally, note that USM hitting 75% of their free throws this year while Tulane converting just 66% from the stripe, with the last two games being especially bad in that area as Green Wave has hit just 50% and 36%, respectively, from the foul line in those contests.

We love taking Marquette when they are getting points, and that is the case here. Syracuse is undefeated coming in, but note that they have won by just six, six, and four points against the other three Top 55 teams (in our Power Rankings) that they have faced, and now they are laying doubles to a team in our Top 25. Marquette owns a win at Wisconsin and also played Georgetown very close on Wednesday of this week. Mentioned above that we like MU when they are getting points, and the proof is in the numbers as the Golden Eagles are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 underdog roles, 12-5 ATS as away dogs of this price. On the other hand Cuse is 1-4 ATS as heavy home chalk of this range. We will take the points in this one.

This Iowa team is a three pointer away (against Purdue) from being on a 6-0 SU run coming into this game, and that of course includes ROAD wins at Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are playing excellent basketball right now and are getting double digits at home in this one. Ohio State has played three road games this season and is 1-2 SU in them, with the win coming by eight against South Carolina, a team we rate as three points below Iowa in our Power Ratings. A look at the angles shows that OSU is 1-3 ATS as away chalk of this range for Thad Matta and 3-6 ATS overall in this spot as a program while Iowa is 2-1/4-1 ATS as home dogs of this price. Finally, a look at the series shows that Ohio State has managed five and eight point wins the last two years..and this Iowa team is better than either of those editions have been. Take the points here.

First playoff game in the history of the Texans' franchise, and to say the crowd will be rowdy will be an understatement. Andy Dalton never faced anything like this when he was at TCU, and the NFL playoff crowds turn things up a notch as well, so this will be a completely new experience for him and most of the very young Bengals. Yes, it will be new for the Texans as well, but they have veterans on this team that have played in many playoff games, and backup QB Delhomme has led a team to the Super Bowl, so we prefer the home team in terms of experience. However, the biggest reason to like Houston here was the season's first meeting, a 20-19 Texans win in Cincinnati. Yes, the game was decided very late, but Houston dominated the statsheet - on the road - to the tune of a 25-16 FD edge and a 412-285 yardage edge. They did that on the road with Yates making his first career start and not having Andre Johnson, and neither will be true this time around. We look for Houston to win this one by a touchdown or more

Can I be blunt? North Texas stinks, and I would say a word that sounds like pucks if I thought I was allowed. They should not be laying points...AT ALL!

View these teams very even in terms of talent, coaching, pretty much the whole deal, and as such hard not to like getting double digits with a very sound Louisville team. A look at the numbers shows that the rebounding numbers are almost dead even and that while Kentucky is the better of the two free throw shooting teams, it is only by 2%, and both teams are solid from the line. Our Power Ratings for this game had the Wildcats favored by six, and a look at the trends shows that the Cardinals are 7-1 ATS as away dogs of this price while Cats are 1-3 ATS as home favorites in this range. Take the points in this rivalry game.

Let's start with the most basic aspect of this handicap, as Wake Forest is a smart team that makes few mistakes and is going against a Mississippi State team that has made mistakes with the football at the most inopportune time all season long. Add in the fact that our "smart" team is getting a full touchdown, and we are on board! Our true strength season rating for these two teams has Wake Forest at +4.5 and Mississippi State at -3.5, and an overall +8 on that scale is very strong - with plays +6 or better winning at a 70% clip over the years. MSU's wins this season have come against Memphis (2-10), Louisiana Tech (8-5) in overtime, UAB (3-9), Kentucky (5-7), Tennessee-Martin, and Ole Miss (2-10) while Wake Forest has wins over NC State (8-5), Gardner Webb, Florida State (9-4), Boston College (4-8), Duke (3-9), and Maryland (2-10). Yes, the Demon Deacons did beat some bad teams as well, but they also have wins over two bowl teams (that have already won this year in their bowl) - something MSU cannot say. Also, a look at the Wake losses shows a three point defeat against Clemson and an OT loss at Syracuse - a game they absolutely should have won if not for some weird, weird late action. Both coaches are solid, and while MSU did win 52-14 in their bowl for Mullen last year, note that was against a Michigan team in disarray, so hard to really give the Bulldogs a ton for credit for that one. On the other hand Wake Forest is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowls for Grobe and has two outright wins as a dog in the school's last five bowls. Wake is also 5-1 SU against SEC teams since 2006, and note that the ACC has won this bowl against an SEC foe each of the last two seasons. We look for one of these teams to win this by a FG, so we are taking the points.

These teams are a combined 14-9-1 the Over this season at this number, Knights have played high scoring bowl games for Schiano in the past, and since both teams do have some scoring punch and less than stellar defenses.

Tar Heels have had the better overall season in terms of "true" results, as there were a couple of games throughout the year in which Missouri was quite fortunate, while UNC dealt with some misleading final scores going against them. All in we feel that these teams are pretty evenly matched, thus making the points attractive, and also note that while UNC has a new coach, UM leader Pinkel is 1-3 SU in his last three bowl games...and favored here.

These two teams met in Atlanta in mid November and the Saints came away with a much talked about three point overtime win. If you recall, that was the game during which Atlanta Head Coach Mike Smith went for it on fourth down somewhat deep in this own territory and was stopped, and soon after the Saints won the game. There was much talk about the decision afterwards, but it seemed to have earned Smith even more support in the locker room, and it is not an accident that his team is one dropped pass away from being 5-0 SU since then. This is a very good Falcons team. As for the Saints, they come into this one on a six game SU and ATS winning streak, and they are certainly playing well- but teams on big rolls heading into Monday Night Football tend to face over inflated lines, and that appears to be the case here. Note that the Falcons absolutely dominated the statsheet the first time around, posting a 30-18 edge in first downs and outgaining the Saints 481-363 - and Matt Ryan had more passing yards in that game than Drew Brees. Overall simply feel that this is a meeting of two very good, and evenly matched, teams, and as such this line is too high, especially since each of the last four series meetings have been decided by a FG. Take the points in this one.

Redskins off a satisfying division win over the Giants and played the Patriots the week before that. They finish the season against the much disliked Eagles. As such, they are ripe for a letdown here, and note that they are 1-3 ATS [lone cover in a SU loss] this season after a SU win. There are also some long term technicals pointing to the points here.

Battered and tired (3rd straight road game/4th in five weeks, played OT last week) Browns catch the Ravens at the wrong time, as they are off an embarrassing loss (3-1-1 ATS off last five losses) on national TV to the Chargers AND in need of a win to stay alive in the hunt for the AFC's top playoff seed. The Ravens have lost three other times this season and have come back and scored at least 30 points in the next game each time. That is not good news for a Cleveland offense that has scored 17-3-10-20-14-12-12-10-6-17-3-17-27-13 this year, with the only time getting more than 20 coming against the Colts. The Browns have scored just 13.3ppg in their last 11 contests, and now will again be without Colt McCoy at QB. Ravens won the season's first meeting in Cleveland 24-10 and had 24-13 FD and 448-263 yardage edges in that game - on the road against McCoy. Lay the wood here.

Aside from a loss to the desperate (and suddenly on a winning streak) Colts last week, the Titans have done quite well against the teams they are supposed to beat, scoring a 31-13 win over Cleveland, a 27-10 win over the Colts, a 30-3 win at Carolina, a 20-10 win over the Bucs and a 23-17 win over the Bills. This is another game against a team they should beat, and they must have this one - and some help - to claim the final Wild Card spot.

Depaul (2-20 SU on the road) as double digit chalk? Give me the other side!

We expect a close game, so with this number moving up past four we will take the G-Men.

Tennessee a solid team but has not shown itself capable against the upper echelon teams in the NFL this season. A look inside their 7-5 record shows that they are 5-1 SU and ATS against teams with losing records but 2-4 SU and ATS against teams with winning records this year but on a current 0-4 SU run (1-3 ATS, cover a six point loss when +6') against such teams. The two wins came early in the season, once when Baltimore in a clear letdown spot after a win over Pittsburgh, and the other a three point win over a then poor Bronco team that has only since rallied to fit into the "winning team" category. They have suffered some blowout losses to good teams, dropping a 38-17 decision at Pittsburgh and suffering a 41-7 defeat here at home against Houston. New Orleans has won four in a row and five of six, was dominant in the first half last week against Detroit, as has controlled the other two AFC South teams they have played this year, posting a combined score of 63-43 in two wins and covers against the Texans and Jags. Finally, note that Tennessee may be without WR Nate Washington here, as he had to leave last week's game with a high ankle sprain. He is a game time decision, but even if he does play he will not be close to 100%, and he is the main third down threat for Tennessee, especially with star WR Britt out as well. Also, starting defensive back McCourty is a game time decision due to a concussion last week...and Drew Brees can be very dangerous against starting DB's let alone reserves. We will lay the points with the road team here.

Packers off back to back big games, were rather fortunate to win last week, and Oakland has been an excellent road team this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS away. They are not the typical "warm weather" team either, as many of their best players come from cold weather locales. Aside from the travel, there is some concern about the Oakland special teams as if Janikowski does not kick the ball out of the endzone Randall Cobb is a skilled returner, but "SeaBas" should be able to neutralize him. Points are very tantalizing here...and even a (very) small money line play could make some sense.

Winless Lions were 3-1 ATS in final four weeks of season, winless away dogs are 16-3 ATS after Week 10, and Orlovsky is a "coverer" so if you are playing this game Indy is the way to go

Neither of these teams is likely to be going to the NCAA Tournament this season, but Fresno is well placed to make this one quite competitive, if not win it. They have their top scorer back from a season ago and also have two Div 1 transfers that should be getting more and more comfortable as the season moves along. On the other hand, CU lost it FOUR best players from a season ago - one of which will be suiting up in the NBA soon. Tough to see the Buffs overcoming such a talent drain here, especially as chalk and even more so when they have not been getting many "free" points, as they are hitting just 61% from the charity stripe. Also, CU is a big favorite here despite the fact that their last three wins have come by just five, three, and two points - and those have been against two teams we think Fresno is better than! Gotta take the points in this one.

Shockers are good, but off MAJOR win against UNLV, a game the Rebels were not ready for. See the same thing happening here to WSU...and Tulsa can play.

Houston's last two losses have come against teams with a powerful runner and a decent to good QB (Baltimore, Oakland w/ Campbell at the time) and now they are facing a team with a powerful runner and an excellent QB in Matt Ryan. That is not a good matchup for a Texan defense that is starting to show some vulnerability to the run, as the last two weeks they have allowed 4.4 and 5.0 yards per carry, respectively. Also, Atlanta is developing into a good road team, as they have won three in a row away from the Georgia Dome. However, the two biggest reasons to take Atlanta here are TJ Yates and Mike Smith. Yates is the rookie QB from North Carolina that is making his first career start here. In college decision making was not always his strong suit, and now he is getting things turned up a notch in the pros. We do look for him to make at least one key mistake here, and Atlanta should capitalize. As for Smith, he is the Head Coach of Atlanta, and under his watch the Falcons have faced eight rookie QB's, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in those games. These rookies have thrown eight TD's against 11 interceptions, been sacked 16 times, produced a passer rating of only 71.2, and have led their teams to an average of just 12.8 points per game. Add it all up and Atlanta gets the call here.

With last week's win Utah State wrapped up a bowl bid despite starting the season 2-5. That was a nice run to get to 6-5, but every game in that four game winning streak was close, as the USU Aggies posted wins of four, one, seven, and four points - far from dominant and not enough to cover a two TD(+) spread of this contest, especially in a potential letdown spot. As for New Mexico State, they have four wins on the year and have definitely showed improvement over past editions, especially at home. Aside from a loss in the opener to a nine win Ohio U team, NMSU has lost by six, won by seven, lost by 14 to a then rolling Nevada team, and won by three vs Fresno. The NMSU Aggies still have struggled on the road, but have been quite respectable at home. Numbers show that USU is 2-9 ATS as road chalk, the home team has won three in a row SU in the series, and five of the last six series meetings here in Las Cruces have been decided by a TD or less. Finally, last season in Logan NMSU had a 22-17 FD edge and 346-296 yardage edge. Yes, the NMSU starting QB is out, but his replacement Christian has played a lot, and has had enough success to make us back the home underdog in this one.

Tough spot for Texas here, as they are playing their third road game in four weeks at the end of a long season while Baylor has only been on the road once since the end of October. Making the spot even worse for the Longhorns is that they played arch rival Texas A&M last week, getting a last second win on a FG in what was a very emotional game. Hard to see them getting back up for this game, and in the past teams like Cal, Stanford, USC, Purdue, Washington, Washington State, Pitt, and West Virginia have struggled when playing in a game coming after what had been a traditional season ending rivalry. Also, Baylor is 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season, and note also that this is the last chance for Robert Griffin to highlight his Heisman candidacy. We will lay the small number in this one.

This Rider team is much, MUCH more talented than Manhattan, but they are just not playing like it yet, as at 1-6 the pieces have not fit together so far. Maybe the start of the conference season will trigger better play, and if they play up to their potential they will win this game by 20, so I will take a shot and lay just four and a hook here.

Inside tip from a friend in Vegas, and going with it. I will be honest...I do not make it a habit to study these teams, but this friend of mine does, and he wants to take the points.

Bama a solid team, but they are just not ready to be this big of a favorite against a perennial Big East power. Our Power Ratings have the Tide only favored by four in this one, and the Hoyas should enjoy an edge from the free throw line and on the glass. Finally, GU is 10-5 ATS as away dogs of this price, and each of the last two seasons they have done quite well in their first road game of the season, which is the case here. This one looks like a close game to us, so take the points.

Illinois-Chicago (UIC) has a very young team that is playing its first road game of the season, and already this season they have lost to Eastern Michigan and Toledo – two teams we rate in the 300’s nationally, and now they are playing a far from great but decent UWGB team we have ranked #175 and that has already defeated Wyoming by eight points, and we view the Cowboys as at least ten points better than the UIC Flames. Finally, a look at series history shows that UWGB has won the last two meetings as host by 24 and 26 points, respectively. Lay the points in this one.

Drake finished last season on a 5-2 run, an they have started this year off the same way, meaning that this team is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games. This Drake team boasts ten upperclassmen in its rotation and five of the top six scorers from last season are back. Another thing Drake has is height, and in this game that is a big (literally) edge, as Boise does not have an inside presence of note. Finally, our Power Ratings have Boise just a three point favorite here, so we will take the points.

Three things dictate this play. First, ISU's lone loss this season (by nine points) came against NIU's conference mate Drake, and while we like the Bulldogs (see below) NIU is the better oft the two teams from the MVC. Also, NIU is 8-0 SU and ATS against up tempo teams like the Cyclones, as they have been able to impose their style in such situations. Finally, our Power Ratings have ISU only favored by two in this game, and they are laying three times that amount. Take the points here.

Our Power Ratings on this game show that the Spiders should be favored by a dozen in this one, and they are laying only eight. W&M has played just one Top 100 team this season and lost by 25, and here they take on a Richmond team in our overall Top 75. From a fundamental standpoint, Tribe is a team that cannot score going against one of the top ten defensive teams in the nation, and Richmond has feasted on such foes, going 6-1 ATS against teams of this offensive class. Finally, Richmond is a good free throw shooting team (key for chalk) and has won and covered both recent roles as away chalk of this price.

These former MAC rivals know each other well, as they typically play once early in the year in the non conference slate. Last season they played twice, meeting in the CBI post season tournament as well. Both games were close, with the latter being a one point win for the Bobcats here on this floor. Most of the parts of both teams return, and as such we look for another close game here. Note also that the Bobcats played Louisville VERY close over the weekend, leading that game late into the 2H and having the ball in the air with a chance to tie with ten seconds left. Finally, UM is off an OT loss to Cincy and has another Big East team - Syracuse - up next, so they may not be full focused for this one. Take the points.

Rams absolutely dominated first meeting but snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Look for them to get revenge at home.

Bucs come into this after a big effort against the defending Super Bowl champs, but an effort that still resulted in an 11 point loss. They have now lost by 45-9-11 points in their last three road games, with a six point loss in London also mixed in. For their part, the Titans have struggled against the better teams in the league, but have done quite well against the teams they are supposed to beat, scoring a 31-13 win over Cleveland, a 27-10 win over the Colts, and a 30-3 win at Carolina. At 5-5 they cannot afford a slip up if they want to stay in the AFC playoff race, and we look for them to get the job done here, especially with the Bucs playing in their second straight away game and with a temperature that will dip into the high 30's as the game wears on.

FAVORED Panthers are 0-4 SU and 1-2-1 ATS on the road this season, Colts have had a bye to get ready for what is their best chance to win a game all season, and winless teams are 15-4 ATS as an underdog after Week Ten since 1986.

Have to take a shot here at +4 - good value....I would even recommend betting this on the money line...but we can only give out spreads....but you know what to do!

With the accusations swirling around the UH team you can rest assured this bunch will give a supreme effort for four quarters, and with Tulane playing in their THIRTEENTH straight week and dealing with this long trip, we will lay the points here.

We do not trust A&M in any favored situation, as this is a team that finds ways to lose with some degree of regularity. As for Texas, the concern for their recent inabilty to score points (5 and 13 points last two games) is what keeps this at only a One Unit play, as last week was a misleading final in that they outgained KSU by a nice margin and still lost. Overall, neither of these teams has had the type of season they were hoping for, and a win in this rivalry game would erase a lot of ills. As such, we look for a close game, so take the points.

Thanks - HAPPY THANKSGIVING - and Good Luck!

Do not really understand the line movement here...I liked this UNDER at 38, like it at 40 as well.

Buffalo is going to win this game outright.

assive lookahead game for OSU, and ISU has been tough at home.

Bonnies are better than most give them credit for

Texas A&M is a quality team that has won 27-25-24-24-24 games the last five seasons, and while they did have a coaching change in the off season the talent on this team is still very, very good and we see them having another great year. Three starters return and they include the top two scorers from last year's team in Khris Middleton and David Loubeau - as well as a returning starter at point guard in Dash Harris. All in all seven of the ten man rotation from a year ago are back for the Aggies. They also add in a couple of versatile frosh and also a transfer from Washington that played 16 minutes a game for the UW Elite Eight team of 2009. This is a very good team! Mississipi State has talent but they have not lived up to billing since the start of last year, and so far this season MSU has beaten #234 South Alabama and #297 Eastern Kentucky but lost by nine - at home - to the best team they have faced, Akron. Texas A&M is five points better than the Zips in our Power Ratings, and this is not at home for MSU. Speaking of those Power Ratings, they call for an eight point win for the Aggies here, and we agree; A&M gets the call.

The Jets have had ONE practice day to get ready to face the Broncos, as Monday was a film day, Tuesday the day off, and Wednesday a practice, but not really, as it was a travel day as well. Normally for a veteran team a limited game plan is okay, and since both teams are on short weeks, things tend to even out. However, with Denver running an offense that the NFL has not seen in ages if ever (specifically INTENSIVE use of the Read-Option) having only one day to prep is going to be a big detriment to the Jets even under regular circumstances, but considering that they just got done playing a highly publicized grudge match game against the Pats - the pass happy Pats no less - it is a tough ask emotionally and a tough ask preparationally in that they are flipping from defending the pass to defending almost all run. College teams deal with this more often and even with a full week it is tough, and here the Jets have had one day. Thursday system review also favors the home team as Thursday home teams off a SU win are 25-13-2 ATS since 1989 while visitors off a SU loss are 12-20 ATS in that same time frame. Finally, note that Thursday away chalk of this price point is 2-4 ATS in the last 15 seasons. We look for a close game here, so we will take the points

Bad teams coming off a win, especially for previously winless team deep into a season, tend to slip up the next week. Miami is in such a situation after beating Kansas City a week ago, and while the score showed (31-3 win) dominance the stats did not, as Miami only outgained the Chiefs by eight yards on the day. Redskins are not a great team, but they have had some moments this year, and with John Beck facing the team that cut him, we do expect his to be at his best, which should be good enough to keep Washington in this game. Numbers show that Redskins are 4-1/33-14 ATS as away dogs of this range while Miami is 0-3/-5-14 ATS of late in all home games, and dating back even further 0-3/18-30 ATS as home chalk of this range. Take the points here.

Houston is off three straight division wins and has another division game coming next week. As such this is a tough spot for them, especially considering that Tampa is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season. We will take the points here, and Tampa should win this game outright.

Buffalo has been outscored 75-14 in their last two road games while EMU, despite last week's remarkably misleading trip up against Ball State, is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this year. Last year's meeting also sways the opinion towards the Eagles, as host Buffalo never led and EMU outgained the Bulls by almost 70 yards. Finally, note that this is EMU's home finale, and with a win here and against 3-6 Kent State next week, Eastern will become bowl eligible! They should be extremely ready for this game, and get the win and cover here.

Ole Miss should give great effort for departing Houston Nutt, and Rebs played better than final score showed last week. Will take the SEC host as dog.

Kentucky going with a first time road starter in Max Smith and Vady playing some excellent football right now as they are a couple of plays away from being on a four game winning streak here. Concept of VU as big fav sounds odd, but they have already won and covered twice in that role this season. Lay it.

Concerned a bit about poor road results for the Owls, but Rice was dominant on the stat sheet last week in a not as close as it seemed win over Utep, and catches NWU in letdown spot after last week's big win at Nebraska. Have to take the points here.

USF has not won a conference game yet this season but is favored on the road against a Cuse team that beat Big East frontrunner West Virginia on this field three weeks ago.

Temple is the better team, and Miami has not proven to be all that impressive on the road, but have to wonder how interested Temple is here after - realistically - losing their chance at the MAC East title in losing to Ohio U last week. This same situation happened last season and the Owls went into Miami as seven point chalk and lost by 20.

Going to take the hook while I can get it!

Both teams got phony points last week...value to the Under

Just a sneaky suspiscion...and worth a shot at a nice price

MASSIVE sandwich for Stanford here off 3OT win and with Oregon up next week. Have to take the on the improve home dog here.

Knights should have won last week, and get a cold day to host the warm weather Bulls.

Zips made a dramatic comeback last week, only to lose the game when a two point conversion went awry and Akron lost by a point on Homecoming. Now they travel to Miami on a short week to take on Redhawk team that dominated Buffalo last week, and we rate the Bulls as actually a little better than Akron. Last year – in Akron – Miami was starting a brand new QB getting his first action ever on the road, and still dominated in FD’s and yardage. Now UM is better than they were last season, Akron about the same, and UM is now at home…and with Ohio U’s win last night Miami must have this one to stay alive in the MAC East chase – so they should be quite focused. We call for a 20 point Miami win here.

Does that say 80'??? I know these two teams can score, but that is just a crazy number. Note that the teams are a combined 6-7 to the Under of that number this year, and that a by all accounts wild 39-38 type game keeps this Under.

Quietly, the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers have put together a nice season, and in fact are just four points away from being 7-0, as both losses have come by just two points, and both of those came on the road - and they are the host here. The venue is notable for a couple of other reasons as well since WVU's two road games have resulted in a close win over a 2-5 Maryland team and a rather signficant loss to Syracuse. Also, forecast is for cold, wet, windy conditions in New Brunswick for this one, and that should help slow down (literally) WVU, and not having that speed edge makes it tougher for the Mounties. Another thing making it tough on West Virginia is the yo-yo the program has been on for the last six days, as on Monday it was all but a certainty that they were moving to the Big 12, but on Wednesday they were staying in the Big East, and now yesterday word came out that they were indeed moving to the Big 12...if the money could be worked out. Those distractions make it tough to prepare and give full focus to the upcoming opponent. Finally, note that the last time Rutgers hosted this series WVU came away with a hard fought 24-21 win - and note that the Scarlet Knights are 2-0 this year and 4-1 ATS overall in underdog roles. An outright upset would not shock us here.

My Power Ratings on this had GT -3, despite what has happened the last two weeks. In a case like that I have to take the points.

Wake almost always plays these "bigger" schools tough, played better than the score showed last week, and catches UNC off two losses in games they were very pumped up for. This should be a FG game.

Been waiting for this game since the schedule came out since it marks UO's first ever game in altitude, and with the breakneck pace of the Duck offense, we think it is going to be hard for them to continue to press in their normal fashion due to the thin air. We think it is a key, hidden edge for the Buffs and will keep this game closer than most think. A take.

This might he the shortest and simplest reasoning report in the ten years of Triple Threat: Louisville isn't any good!! They are 2-4 and only have wins over Murray State and a really bad Kentucky team, while Rutgers is 5-1 and have beaten Ohio U, Syracuse, Pitt, and Navy - not titans but still good teams. Add in that the road team has controlled the series, and we will go with the Scarlet Knights here.

Two many missing pieces for the Texans here, as they will be without both their top offensive player (Andre Johnson) and top defender in Mario Williams. That would be tough in any situation, but going into Baltimore where the Ravens have allowed one offensive TD all year and have won 35-7 and 34-17 in their two games, it is even more difficult. Add in that Harbaugh has used the bye incredibly well during his tenure (wins of 26-10, 36-7, 28-10 post bye last three years) and we will lay the points here.

Lots of folks wondering "what is wrong" with Atlanta (thus the line move down) - and the answer is that Chicago is a very solid home team, the Bucs are a very solid home team, and the Packers are just very solid all around. Those are the three teams the Falcons have lost to this season...and now they face the 1-4 Panthers, whose only win has come against the 1-4 Jaguars. Atlanta absolutely dominated this series in two games last year, winning 31-10 both times, and while Carolina is better now than they were a year ago, we do not feel that they have made up 18 points on Atlanta, the margin they would need to cover this spread. At 2-3 the Falcons are nearly in a must win spot, and they will get it done, convincingly, here.

Niners might be for real, and catch Lions in massive letdown spot. Note that non division home favs off a MNF division win are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS of late and 4-8 ATS in that spot the last few years.

Hawaii has had a bye week to recover from five games in 28 days - three on the mainland - to start the season, and in actuality this is the "shortest" trip they will make all season. Also, UH should really be 4-1 coming into this, as that loss against UNLV really was fluky. Note that in their other road game they played very tough against a 4-1 Washington team. As for SJSU, they are 2-4 with wins over New Mexico State and Colorado State, and the latter really surprised us. Still, they are off a not as close as it seemed loss to BYU last week and are still clearly growing as a program. We thought this line would be double digits, so we will lay the points here.

We liked the Tigers yesterday and we are coming right back with them against today. As was noted yesterday, the Tigers are thriving at home in front of their raid fan base, as with so many injuries that energy can help push a team through. Also, this is a day game, and the Rangers are only two games above .500 this season during the day, with Josh Hamilton greatly affected, as his Day/Night splits are very significantly slanted towards better performance at night. A look at the starting pitchers also points to the Tigers, as Harrison is 0-4 (0-5 Team Starts) in his career against Detroit with a 7.42 ERA. Two of those starts came this year and he allowed seven runs in ten innings. For his part Porcello went six innings in his only start against Texas this year, giving up just one run. Give me the home underdog here.

First off, the home edge will be a big advantage for the Tigers here, as the crowd in a close series can be a big help. Looking at the actual game, yes Fister was hit pretty hard in his relief appearance in Game 1 of the ALDS but came back strong to pitch five(+) solid innings in Game Five - allowing just one run in a game that - of course - the Tigers had to win. That has to give him confidence going into this (virtual) elimination game. With that Game Five outing included, he has now allowed just five earned runs in his last 57.2 innings when starting a game - thus posting a crazy good 0.78 ERA in that span, and not surprisingly the Tigers are 8-0 in those games. On the other hand Lewis has given up 15 earned runs is his last 31.3 innings - for a 4.31 ERA. That type of starting pitching comparison usually leads to a lot more than -138, so we will take the value with the home team here.

LSU (-) over Florida [330pm]

Gators have to face the two best defenses in the nation in back to back weeks, and since last week was at home and they had starting QB Brantley for a half and managed only ten points, have to wonder what they are going to be able to muster on the road with an untested QB making his first ever road start...in Death Valley. Fully expect the Tigers defense to score at least once here, and while the Mad Hatter Le Miles not the most trustworthy as chalk have to lay the points with the superior, home, healthy team here.

(382) 3* Texas Tech (+) over Texas A&M [7pm]

Aggies are a very talented team, but they have not played up to that talent level this season, especially on defense, and specifically on pass defense. A weakness in pass defense is never "good" but it is especially bad when playing the still pass happy Texas Tech Red Raiders, who are completing 73% of their passes and gaining 345 pass yards per contest this season. A&M is playing in their first true road game of the season and is off back to back heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas. TTU is 4-0 coming in, and while they did need some good fortune to escape vs. Nevada a couple of weeks ago, this is still a solid team, and they are 6-2 SU at home for Tuberville, with the home team 12-5 SU SU in the last 17 series meetings. A(nother) take.

Wake Forest (+) over Florida State [1230pm]

After a season fueled by high hopes and a Top Five national ranking, the Noles come into this game off a bye at just 2-2 overall and 0-1 in the ACC. They are now 1-3 SU in their last four non home games and taking on a scrappy Wake team...and laying big points to boot. The Demon Deacons are 3-1 but the only loss came in OT on the road, so they are not that far from coming into this one undefeated. They are also 2-0 in ACC play whereas, as mentioned, FSU is 0-1. Wake also won their season finale last year, so this veteran bunch with 17 returning starters (15 of them upperclassmen) are 4-1 SU in their last five games. There are some nice technical aspects of the play as well, and while FSU is likely to win this one outright, have to take the big points here.

Idaho (+) over Louisiana Tech [5pm]

La Tech is 3-12 straight up in their last 15 road games and is now laying points to a better than the record shows Idaho team. This one is played indoors at the Kibbie Dome and LT is 0-4/13-34 SU in artificial turf games. Idaho IS 1-4 on the year but extended Virginia to OT in Charlottesville last week and in fact has played better than the score shows in three of their last four games. We do look for a nice effort for them here, especially since this is Homecoming in Moscow. LT is also 1-4 coming in, and the only win was an OT victory over FCS Central Arkansas. We will take the points here.

Iowa (+) over Penn State [3:30pm]

Iowa has had two weeks to get ready for this one as they had a bye last week, and they have won and covered three in a row in that spot, including a ten point win at Michigan last year. For their part Penn State is coming off a six point win at Indiana and two other non covering wins vs. Eastern Michigan and Temple. They lost badly vs. Alabama, and while Iowa is certainly not on Bama's level, they are a whole lot better than Indiana, Temple, and EMU. Also, Hawkeyes are a play away from being 4-0 coming into this, as their only loss came against Iowa State in double overtime, and they have defeated Pitt along the way, a team we rate as very close to Penn State. Next, Hawks have just owned this series, winning eight of nine and nine of eleven meetings. Finally, note that UI is 6-1-1 ATS as an away dog of late while PSU is 3-12 ATS as a Happy Valley favorite.

Brewers are 5-5 this season against the Diamondbacks, but THREE of the losses have come when Collmenter was the Arizona starter, as he has owned them this year, pitching 21 innings on one run ball! Aside from that Brew Crew is 5-2 in the other seven series games, and we see them getting the win here today. Numbers show that Dbacks are a sub .500 (7-12) team this season as small home favs, and a look at the starting pitching Wolf is 9-3 in his last dozen starts this season and 10-5 in his career (13-7 Team Starts) against Arizona, with a 7-2 record, 3.43 ERA, and .232 BAA in games started in Arizona. For his part Saunders has made two career starts against the Brewers and lost them both, posting a 5.68 ERA in the process.

Falcons have scored 12 and 13 points in two road games this year and Seattle has scored a total of 30 points on the season. Under is the way to go here.

In what shapes up as a very evenly matched game, will take the home team, especially noting that Cleveland has a BIG special teams edge in the return game. Bioranas will have to bo very good to keep Cribbs (32.3 avg KOR) from being a factor, and the Browns are getting better than ten yards per punt return as well.

Gamecocks playing with double revenge from last year,as Auburn won in the regular season AND In the SEC Championship Game. Of course, that was the Cam Newton and Nic Farley led Tigers, and this edition is nowhere near the class of last season's National Champion. Auburn barely escaped at home to start the season, and then this young team got out to a quick lead at Clemson before the Tigers righted the ship and took control, winning 38-24. Then last week, when Coach Chizik made no bones about wanting to go out and take it to Florida Atlantic, the Tigers only won by 16, and the game was reasonably tight most of the way. Now the Tigers are back on the road against a talented team out for revenge, and we see South Carolina getting a nice sized win in this one.

Illinois was dreadful last week in a great spot against a MAC team that wsa ripe for the shellacking. Now they take on a NWU team that is getting back its leader in Persa (7-3 SU with him last year) - and that is especially notable since Persa missed this rivalry game last year. Give me the points here.

Houston is 2-0 but had beaten a Colts team in disarray and the Dolphins bunch that is still struggling as well, so to us they are the least impressive of the 2-0 teams out there (although we read on one Website this week that Houston was going to be the AFC Super Bowl rep...). On the other hand the Saints were a play away from tying the game in the late stages of the opener against the defending Super Bowl champs, and last week [on this field] demolished the NFC runner up. Now they take on a team that has still yet to reach the playoffs, and that likely will be without their best player in Arian Foster. There are also some strong interconference technical pointing to the Saints. Lay the points here.

Dallas should have won last week, probably by a lot, against a good Jets team [B2B AFC Championship Game appearances] that was at home in a highly emotional situation. They played MUCH better than the final score indicated. The Niners should have lost last week, at home, against a bad Seattle team. This one is all about line value, and that is solidly on the side of Dallas here.

Carolina gained 477 yards of offense last week while the Packers put up 399, and the defenses were not exactly stellar, as Green Bay gave up 474 and the Panthers allowed 394. Another factor to consider here is that (as he did last week) Newton may supply a score (or two) for Green Bay on mistakes, as while he was impressive overall last week he is still young and not totally versed in how things work in the NFL. A Pick Six or fumble while trying to force something would not be a surprise at all, but neither would a startling TD run that few other QB's would be able to pull off. One more fundamental note is that both teams have high quality return men in both the kickoff and punt return spots, and special teams coverage units seem to have been negatively impacted by the lockout.

Titans were one play away from winning last week's game, as after playing poorly for three quarters they got their act together late and were driving for a game winning FG when new QB Hasselbeck was intercepted. We look for him to be even more comfortable, and for Chris Johnson to be much, much better than he was a week ago - now that both have a game under their belts. As for the Ravens, yes they did beat up on the Steelers last week, but that was a game this team had been hyping and preparing for a long time, and some letdown is due here. Note that NFL teams are 3-7 ATS as away chalk after beating the Steelers, Baltimore is 5-11 ATS as away chalk of this range since 2005, and the Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as home dogs of this price. Take the points here.

Lots of folks making a pretty big deal of the extra prep time the Saints have for this one, but history shows that teams are 0-3 BOTH SU AND ATS as away favs in Week Two if they lost in the Thursday Night season opener, with last year's Vikings loss to the Dolphins the most recent example. Sticking with the numbers, note that the Bears have won three in a row in domed stadiums and that the Saints are 1-3 ATS as home chalk of this range. Note also that Chicago is playing with extra emotion in honor of the mother of star Brian Urlacher, and finally note that the Bears WERE in the NFC Championship Game last year and just drilled the Falcons, so we will take the points in this one.

Both of these teams won over weaker foes last week, but Vandy beat a decent Elon team (from the solid Southern Conference) while U Conn defeated a bad Fordham team from the weak Patriot League. Note also that the Huskies have a brand new starting QB - making his first road start and doing so in SEC country - AND are trying to replace RB Jordan Todman, who accounted for almost 1800 yards from scrimmage last season. Our off season ratings for these teams show Vandy +3.0 while U Conn is -2.0 - a solid five point edge for the Commodores, who return ALL ELEVEN starters from the offense last year and eight of starting defenders. Note that this is a Vandy team that is three games over .500 in non conference games since 2001, with wins over ACC, Big East, C-USA, and Big Ten teams in that span. Sure, the overall records have been poor, but playing in the SEC will do that. Finally, note that last year U Conn did win 40-21 as seven point home chalk, but VANDY WAS LEADING 21-14 in the second half when the bottom fell out, and even with that UC only outgained VU by 49 yards. Now it is Vandy at home, and it is UC with the young team, and we see the Commodores getting the job done here.

The Bearcats were 0-4 ATS as away dogs last season and have just five returning offensive starters from that team, so they will not be as strong on the offensive side of the ball. Tennessee has QB Tyler Bray, who is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a regular season starter, leading the Vols to 42-16, 24-14, 24-10, 52-14, and 50-14 wins in those five games. Last week the Vols controlled a solid FCS team in Montana while UC drilled a bad Austin Peay team that gave up 63ppg to FBS teams a year ago. Gotta go with the SEC as small home chalk against the Big East in this one.