Marc Lawrence from Playbook

All true Duke fans know there are only two, possibly three, games
each year that really matter – and this isn’t one of them. No, the
really BIG game circled on the Blue Devils’ calendar takes place
on Wednesday at Chapel Hill against the hated Tar Heels of North
Carolina. In fact, Duke’s focus on UNC is so all encompassing that
they forget to show up ATS-wise in the preceding contest. Coach
K’s minions are a dreadful 6-20-1 ATS before going toe-to-toe
with the Heels – and an even worse 1-14 ATS if the foe is off a SU
and ATS win (not the case here). The Blue Devils continue to burn
money at Cameron Indoor Stadium (4-7 ATS this year) thanks to
an inability to close out games where they’ve established sizable
leads. That’s a genuine concern against a talented Miami squad
that arrives in Durham riding a three-game conference win streak
and looking to settle the score for a pair of double-digit losses to
the Dookies last year. New Hurricanes head coach Jim Larranaga
owns a career 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS record when seeking
revenge from two losses the previous season and his team brings
a formidable 23-10-2 ATS mark as a conference road dog versus
.750 or greater foes into today’s fray. Duke, who has gone 0-4-1
ATS at home following a date with Virginia Tech, trailed UNC
and Florida State by one game in the win column at press time,
so the pressure will squarely rest on the team wearing white.
With Carolina o

The road-poor Lakers have struggled away from the Staples
Center this season (2-7 SU and ATS heading into last night’s
same-season revenger in Denver) and it doesn’t fi gure to get
any better tonight in Utah’s dominant Delta Center. Though
our ‘AIR UP THERE’ angle from Issue #2 has produced
a vigorish-losing 1-1 ATS record, it’s time to revisit that
‘Awesome’ situation while adding a twist – bringing in the
hosts off rest while playing with same-season revenge. This
85% proposition actually exceeds the 78% return from our
original angle and should improve to 18-3 ATS since 1990 as
the Lakers usually hit an all-time low after leaving Mile High.
L.A. is just 5-12 ATS on the road with no rest after ‘seeing it
rain fi re in the sky’, including embarrassing 26 and 34-point
losses, respectively, in Utah. And while the Jazz may not
match their largest win of the season (a 29-point home win
over the other L.A. team just over two weeks ago), look for
them to avenge a pair of same-season losses to the Lakers
with much more than a ‘casual reply.’ It’s a Jazz Fest tonight
in Salt Lake.

You know those solar eclipses that occur only once every few years?
Such a rare sight could be on display here if Kansas shows up as a
dog to Mizzou. In the last four seasons, KU has taken points just six
times – and they’ve been favored in 35 of the last 38 games in this
series (3-0 ATS as a dog). Recent history has not been kind to the
Tigers when taking on the Jayhawks: they’re 0-5-1 ATS in the last
six meetings, and 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS if Kansas shows up sporting
a greater than .777 win percentage. It seems new coach Frank Haith
is famous for taking the apple in step-up games as well, going 1-5
ATS as a conference home favorite of less than 10 points versus a
greater than .777 foe. Thus, it should come as no surprise that in this
matchup of Kansas’ Top 10 ranked DFG (37.5%) versus Missouri Top
10 ranked OFG (49.9%), we’re backing the defensive dog. Following
MU’s heart-stopping 1-point road win at Texas, the home crowd
will be at fever pitch (ESPN’s GameDay crew will be there, too) for
what could be the Tigers’ next-to-last border war with KU before
Mizzou bolts to the SEC. All things considered, we’ll step in with the
Jayhawks in this coveted dog role. Rock-chalk-dog, baby!

Our database did a lot of recent mining in the Horizon League
and it came up with more than a few nuggets, one of which is
our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. Another is the fact that the
Raiders are a much better dog at home in conference play (11-1
ATS L12) than they are on the road (7-13 ATS) – and away from
the cozy confi nes of the Ervin J. Nutter Center is where we fi nd
Wright State in this matchup. WSU beat the Crusaders, 73-55, in
Dayton last month but since then coach Billy Donlon has been less
than pleased with his team’s effort on offense. "We don't play with
nearly the pace we need," Donlon told the Dayton Daily News. "I
mean in half court, we stand, we don't move. It's a major problem."
Valpo’s success with same-season revenge looks like another
problem for the visitors: Bryce Drew’s team is 6-1 ATS in that role
of late, including 4-0 ATS on this court. The Crusaders have shown
signifi cant improvement since the earlier loss to WSU, particularly
on defense. Off a double revenger with Butler and a revenge affair
up next versus Green Bay (1-5 ATS before the Phoenix), Wright is
in the wrong place at the wrong time here. We love same-season
paybacks on strong homecourts with winning avengers versus
losing foes, especially when the hosts are vying for the conference
lead. Remember, two wrongs don’t make a Wright. Lay the points.

There is revenge… and then there is meaningful revenge. THIS
is meaningful revenge. Oklahoma State lost 106-65 at Baylor
earlier this year, the worst loss in the men’s basketball program
in our database dating back to 1990. The Bears scored their most
points ever in a Big 12 game that didn't go to overtime as they
outrebounded the Cowboys, 48-25, and outshot them from the
fl oor, 53% to 39%. All of which led OSU head coach Travis Ford
to answer just one question in his post-game news conference,
lasing less than 30 seconds. "They played great. We played bad,”
said Ford. "They played really, really, really well.” How important
is the rematch? Okie State has reached post-season play in each
of Ford’s three years at the helm at Stillwater but with an 11-11
record so far – and road games with Kansas and Missouri still on
deck – the current campaign is in serious jeopardy of slipping
away. One thing’s for sure: OSU guard Markel Brown will have
to keep his cool for the full forty minutes if Ford’s team expects
to be competitive. Brown, who tied for top team scorer in the
loss to Baylor with 15 points, was ejected in a January 25 win
over Missouri after two technical fouls for taunting sent him to
the bench. Despite the recent blowout win by the Bears, this
series has belonged to the Cowboys. Not only is Baylor just 5-10
ATS on this court of late, Scott Drew’s team is a pitiful 0-4-1 ATS
when the Pokes are playing with revenge. The Bears could also
be in for a letdown after gaining their 20th win of the season
against Texas A&M on Wednesday (Baylor 2-7-1 ATS after facing
the Aggies). That’s good news for an OSU squad that has been
hard to corral at home, going 51-8 SU in its last 59 games at
Gallagher-Iba Arena. The clincher comes from our database:
.450 or greater college hoops home dogs seeking revenge from
a same-season loss of 40 or more points are 18-7-1 ATS since
1991. With the series visitor now a woeful 1-9 ATS, look for OSU
to ‘state’ their case with an upset win here.

These two Western Conference contenders meet for the third time
in just over a month and this time it will be Kobe and company
eager for revenge. The Lakers topped the Nuggets on New Year’s
Eve in L.A. but Denver promptly returned the favor one day later.
Now it’s Kobe’s chance at redemption and our PLAYBOOK.com
database says it won’t take a $4,000,000 diamond ring (wouldn’t
he love to have that back now?) for the ‘Black Mamba’ to make
amends. Nope, the Lakers are a blissful 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven
meetings with the Nuggets when seeking revenge. They are also
17-8 ATS in this series when taking points, including 7-1 ATS
when that aforementioned ‘R’ word is involved. And when you
include that other ‘R’ word – rest – now you’re talking Best Bet
status. The Nuggets arrive off a double-revenger at the other L.A.
team and fi gure to be in need of immediate oxygen as they are
just 7-17 ATS in the second of back-to-backers when facing rested
opposition, including 1-7 ATS if the foe is off a SU win (check the
Lakers home result versus the Bobcats on Tuesday). It’s a take as
the world’s newest eligible bachelor enjoys a little ‘R & R’ while
grabbing the (suddenly much-needed) cash.

Well, if you think that the Hawks can handle the Grizzlies SU
for the ninth time in 10 tries – including all fi ve in this building
– then you have to lay the points tonight in Atlanta. That’s
because, as of press time, the surging Grizz are a non-exerting
0-7 ATS in their seven SU losses this season. It also doesn’t hurt
that Lionel Hollins’ horses are coming off a revenger against the
Nuggets with a same-season double-revenge match against the
Thunder looming in Oklahoma City tomorrow night. Memphis’
0-4 ATS mark on the road before battling Durant and company
also doesn’t bode well for a Grizzlies’ group that is 5-15-1 ATS
in this series since 2001. And should the Memphis men arrive
off a SU loss (check Tuesday result versus Denver), an ugly 1-13
ATS series log comes into play. No doubt the Grizz has turned
it around after a sluggish 3-6 start, but Philips Arena has never
been kind to them (3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS lifetime) and with the
Hawks already 8-1 SU at home this season (only loss to Miami),
don’t expect a warm welcome tonight. Who says we don’t play
favorites? An easy lay.

Now this is interesting. When BYU decided to ditch the Mountain
West Conference and pursue independent status in football only, the
hoops team opted to land in the West Coast Conference. And who
should be waiting to throw a wrench into this latest Mormon mission?
None other than the Catholics… err, Bulldogs, of Gonzaga, who were
unceremoniously dumped in the second round of last year’s NCAA
tournament by these Cougars. BYU has not taken the expected tumble
after the departure of high-scoring Jimmer Fredette but they’ve had
little success against elite programs like Wisconsin, Baylor and Saint
Mary’s: the Cougs are 17-2 SU versus .800 or less foes this year but
have gone 0-3 SU and ATS at press time versus teams with a higher
win percentage. The hosts are also just 4-10 ATS versus .800 or better
opponents playing with revenge and will take the court here off a
revenger of their own with the aforementioned Gaels. Meanwhile,
Mark Few’s Bulldogs, who are gunning for their 14th straight trip to
the Big Dance, show up in Provo with a 30-16 ATS mark as underdogs
of fewer than 8 points. In this latest battle between cats and dogs,
look for the visitors to earn ‘best in show’ honors. Take the points
with the better – and more determined – team here tonight.

Despite sitting in last place in the tough Northwest Division,
Minnesota’s .444 win/loss percentage is light years ahead of
recent Timberwolves’ editions. Much of that can be attributed to
the arrival of Ricky Rubio as the Spanish star has added a spark
in the Twin Cities while bringing out the best of all the former
No. 1 picks on the T-Wolves. Minny has certainly held its own
against .666 or greater opposition this season, posting a 5-1 ATS
log, and that’s not a good sign for an Indiana squad that is 0-5
SU and ATS against Western Conference foes when playing
without rest. This visit to the Target Center also fi nds the Pacers
in a precarious position as our PLAYBOOK.com database notes:
teams who immediately hit the road with no rest off a one-game
homestand on the heels of a previous three-game road trip are
just 111-144-5 since 1990. History has shown it’s hard for teams to
‘Pace’ themselves in this situation so we have no choice but to run
with the hungry Wolves. At pick, plus or minus, we’re ‘Targeting’
the hosts.

Wichita State head coach Gregg Marshall struggled in his fi rst two
seasons with the Shockers but since the 2009-10 season tipped off, his
teams have rolled to a highly competitive 72-21 SU mark – including
last year’s NIT Championship defeat of Alabama. Two of those losses
came against Missouri State last season so Marshall should have his
squad fi ring on all cylinders here. Rested Shockers are in a good spot
as they’ve gone 7-1 SU and ATS in this series when playing with three
or more days of rest. On the fl ip side, the host Bears have literally
gone into hibernation since mid-January, losing four of its last fi ve
conference outings (shooting just 44% from the fl oor versus MVC foes
through 1/25). Missouri State also takes the court off a double-revenger
against Northern Iowa and the bruins own a woeful 1-10 ATS record
after battling the Panthers. Meanwhile, WSU brings an intimidating
13-0 SU effort versus sub .650 foes into the fray, a streak they’ll need
to maintain if they hope to keep pace with Creighton in the chase for
the Missouri Valley Conference title. In a matchup between two teams
heading in opposite directions, it won’t be a ‘shock’ to see Wichita
State harvest an important win here.

What’s this? Wyoming in the thick of the Mountain West Conference
chase? Believe it. Head coach Larry Shyatt, returning to the program
he led to a 19-9 record way back in 1998 before skipping town to
take over at Clemson, has rescued the Cowboys from their 20-42
debacle of the previous two seasons and is sitting pretty at 17-4
(Wyoming 15-1 SU and 10-2 ATS versus sub .777 opposition at press
time). Defense has been the key as the Pokes have limited opponents
to a piddling 53 PPG, thanks in large part to the play of USC transfer
Leonard Washington. Meanwhile, the Frogs are fl irting with yet
another visit to the conference cellar and fi nd themselves off a New
Mexico revenger (0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS after the Lobos) with a San
Diego State revenger on deck… not a good situation for a squad
that’s just 1-5 ATS in lined home games at press time. There’s also a
little matter of MWC tourney revenge lurking in the wings here as
the Horned Ones sent the Cowboys packing in the opening round of
last year’s league tournament. Bottom line is we’re not leaping with
a bunch of Frogs that haven’t had a winning season since 2004-05
against a Wyoming squad on the rise. Take it or lay it… either way,
the Pokes are the play.

The Hoosiers appear to be hitting the wall after a startling 15-1
start – losing three of their last four games at press time – and are
resembling the Indiana squads that struggled to a 28-66 record
in head coach Tom Crean’s fi rst three seasons at the helm in
Bloomington. More troubling than the unfairly high expectations
that occurred as a result of the Hoosiers’ fast start is their inability
to win on the conference road: their lone Big Ten road victory this
season came versus cellar-dwelling Penn State. IU also fi nds itself
stuck in the middle of a deluxe revenge sandwich. The visitors
arrive off a quadruple-revenger with Iowa (1-6 ATS away versus
a conference foe with revenge after the Hawkeyes) while looking
ahead to another quadruple revenger, this time against Purdue (0-5
SU and 1-4 ATS before the Boilermakers). Now Michigan looks to
add to Indiana’s recent woes by making amends for a scant 2-point
loss to the Hoosiers back in early January. Speaking of revenge, this
contest marks the third of three straight ‘get even’ games for the
Wolverines, a role where they’ve posted a profi table 10-3-1 ATS
record since 2006. Even better for Michigan fans, head coach John
Beilen is the answer to this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3, and
we’re not bucking success like that. Look for Wolverines guard Tim
Hardaway Jr. to snap out of a recent shooting slump as the hosts
deliver a healthy slice of payback here tonight.

Once again, Penn State’s basketball team must take the fl oor in the
midst of the university’s public grieving over the death of legendary
football coach Joe Paterno. The Lions got the news just before their
Jan. 22nd game at Indiana and they played like a squad whose focus
was justifi ably elsewhere, getting pounded by the Hoosiers, 73-54.
And following an emotional two days consisting of Joe’s funeral and
an on-campus memorial service, PSU hit the road again Wednesday
where they were ground into Lion sausage at Ohio State. So tonight’s
matchup will mark the Nits’ fi rst home game since Joe Pa’s death and
we expect emotions to be at fever pitch. However, when your team is
riding a 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS slump and stuck in the conference cellar,
emotion can only take you so far. That should be especially true here:
the Badgers were upset as 7.5-point favorites by Penn State in last
year’s Big Ten tourney and the Nits have cashed in only 12 of their last
32 contests at home against avenging foes. Wisky has held the upper
hand in this series of late, too, going 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS, including
6-1 ATS the last seven at Bryce Jordan Center. Penn State also has
the misfortune of hosting a streaky Wisconsin team currently on an
upward swing. The Badgers rode a 4-game win skein into Indiana on
Thursday, which came on the heels of a 3-game losing effort – a streak
that was preceded by six straight wins. Outmanned PSU will likely
need a big effort from behind the 3-point arc to have a chance here.
The problem is Wisconsin not only ranks as one of the league’s best
at defending the 3-point shot, they hit a high percentage of treys
on offense as well. With the visitors sitting one game behind the
Buckeyes in the loss column of the Big Ten standings at press time, this
game is a must-have for the Cheeseheads. Considering they’re 5-1 ATS
as chalk with last-year tournament knockout revenge and 4-0 ATS in
that role versus less-than.700 opposition, we think they’ll get it. Nits
may keep it close for a while but will eventually succumb to another
of their trademark second-half fades. Lay the points.

Simply put, this is not one of Rick Barnes’ vintage Texas basketball
teams. Currently 3-4 in the Big 12, the Longhorns stand just one loss
away from equaling last season’s total eight defeats (won 28 games).
Worse, additional setbacks may put UT in the position of missing the
NCAA tournament for the fi rst time in Barnes’ 14 seasons at Austin.
Enter Missouri and its unique 4-guard offense, an attack that gave
the ‘Horns fi ts in an 11-point loss to the Tigers back on 1/14. But let’s
not bury Bevo just yet. Texas has always been a tough out at home
under Barnes and they’ve held the upper hand in this series recently,
going 10-4 SU and ATS while covering fi ve of the last six meetings
on this fl oor. Strong support comes in the form of UT’s 7-1 ATS effort
at home when playing with same-season revenge for a loss of 10 or
more points – including 5-0 ATS the last fi ve. And while we’re on the
subject of revenge, Mizzou will play this game before a huge battle
with Kansas for the top spot in the conference. The Tigers, who are 0-4
SU and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four shots at the Jayhawks, arrive with a
dismal 2-9 ATS mark before facing KU, including 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS
versus a greater-than .550 foe. Let’s also not forget that this will be the
Longhorns’ last regular season chance to bag the Tigers before Mizzou
defects to the SEC (few programs tried as hard as Texas to keep the Big
12 intact once rumblings of a potential mutiny began to surface). If
the Longhorns can manage to avoid the slow starts that have doomed
them in previous losses this year, look for them to bring high-fl ying
Missouri back down to earth with a win-and-cover here. Hook ‘em!

The Nets topped the Raptors, 97-85, north of the border three
weeks ago but we expect Toronto to return the favor tonight in
northern New Jersey. Not only are the Nets an unprepared 3-7 ATS
in their last 10 games as favorites versus a foe with same-season
revenge but the Raptors a moneymaking 16-6-3 ATS in this series
when seeking payback. And to make matters worse for Jay-Z’s boys
(how the heck did he ever get Beyoncé?), Toronto’s last four visits
to the Garden State have resulted in four SU wins. This one-game
homestand also fi nds the Nets in the middle of a road-revenge
sandwich. Avery Johnson’s crew will be looking to make amends
in Cleveland on Friday for a double-digit loss they suffered to the
Cavs on New Year’s Day – while casting an eye toward Indiana on
Tuesday for a 14-point setback against the Pacers the following
night. With that being said, it has to be Raptor over Rapper. Sorry
Jay-Z, but we’ll “make with the take as the points are the play on
this Sunday.” Hey, that’s not half bad!

This hated Big Ten rivalry is at its best today as the 22nd-ranked
Wolves are looking for revenge from a trio of setbacks last
season, including a 68-61 loss in the Big Ten tourney. Despite the
losses, Michigan managed to grab the cash on all three occasions
as double-digit dogs and we’ll look for more of the same this
afternoon in Columbus. And for good reason! The Wolverines
have actually covered the last six in the series, winning one in SU
fashion while losing the other fi ve by an average of 6.4 PPG – with
the largest just an 11-point defi cit. Not only are John Beilein’s boys
a dangerous 3-0 ATS as double-digit dogs with last-season tourney
revenge, they’re also a determined 3-0 ATS in this rivalry when
getting sent home from the Big Ten tourney by the belligerent
Buckeyes. The latter fi ts like Ohio State memorabilia in a Columbus
tattoo parlor to OSU’s 3-8 ATS mark at home versus a foe with lastseason
tourney revenge, including 1-7 ATS when Thad Matta’s
men are playing less than .900 ball on the season. The 3rd-ranked
Buckeyes may grab their sixth SU win in a row in the series but the
numbers tell us to take a ‘vested’ interested in the visiting Wolves.
We’ll do just that and grab the generous doubles.

Philly toyed with the Pistons, 96-73, in their fi rst meeting in this
building three weeks ago but we have a feeling it may be a
case of sloppy seconds for the Atlantic Division-leading Sixers.
For starters, Doug Collins’ crew is 0-3 ATS as double-digit chalk
versus a foe with same-season revenge of more than 21 points.
That ties in nicely to Detroit’s 4-0 ATS mark on the road in this
series when playing with same-season revenge of 5 or more
points. Rest – or should we say lack of it – also plays a factor
tonight in the Wachovia Center as the Pistons are 16-5 ATS
against unrested foes, and a perfect 5-0 ATS in this matchup
when both squads enter without a break. With the hosts eyeing
a triple-revenger against Orlando on Monday, we’ll set our
sights on this week’s 20/20 AWESOME ANGLE and its 94%
success rate. We’ll also grab the doubles in what looks to be a
‘sloppy’, low-scoring affair.

The 22-win Blazers were sent packing to the NIT last season after
East Carolina knocked them out of the Conference USA tourney
and we’re sure they’ll be more than happy to keep a basement
lock on the cellar-dwelling Pirates (0-6 in league play) this season.
ECU’s tourney win certainly came as a surprise as the Blazers had
won 10 of the fi rst 11 in this series, including the last seven in a
row. UAB has also covered fi ve of the last seven in this match-up
and its 6-1 ATS log when playing less than .666 ball and owning
last-season tourney revenge, suggests that series number will
improve tonight in Birmingham. With the Pirates more concerned
with a revenger against SMU at home on Wednesday – and
realistically one of their last chances for a conference win this
season – we’ll uncharacteristically lay the points for the third time
on this Saturday card. It’s a charm!

In reality, series history alone should have us clawing with the
‘Cats tonight in Tucson as Arizona has won the last fi ve in this
building by an average score of 90-75. However, revenge plays
a bigger part as the Huskies made the mistake of beating the
top-seeded Wildcats in last year’s Pac-10 championship tilt.
Arizona did go on to advance to the Elite Eight but there’s
still some unfi nished business as far as Sean Miller’s men are
concerned as they look to leapfrog the Huskies in the crowded
conference standings. And our PLAYBOOK.com database likes
their chances! As of press time, UDub has yet to cover a true
road game this season (0-4 ATS). In fact, the Huskies are a sleepless
1-5 SU outside of Seattle this season. Lorenzo Romar’s
squad is also just 2-4 ATS on the road when facing a Pac-10
foe with last-season tourney revenge and that ties in nicely to
‘Zona’s 6-2 ATS log with last-season tourney payback, including
6-0 ATS versus a foe off a SU win (check Washington’s result at
ASU on Thursday). The Huskies should get the victory against
the outmanned Sun Devils but this second of back-to-back
road games in the Grand Canyon State – along with Arizona’s
aforementioned spotless 6-0 ATS mark – should prove too much
for a Huskies team that has gotten fat off of home cooking.
Cats outduel Huskies tonight in the desert.

These days, it seems as if the anemic Aggies’ offense (62.3 PPG,
including 53.7 PPG in Big 12 play) would have a hard time scoring
in a women’s prison with a fi stful of pardons. And though Okie
State’s ‘D’ is just slightly above average (65.8 PPG, No. 72 in the
nation), the Cowboys have stifl ed ‘lesser’ opponents this season.
While Travis Ford’s fellows have had their problems with greater
than .714 opposition this season (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS), they are 8-3
SU and 6-3 ATS versus .714 or less foes. The ‘Boys are also 6-1-1
ATS with revenge after meeting Missouri and fi gure to catch
Billy Kennedy’s bunch at just the right time as they look to make
amends for last year’s sweep. A&M arrives off a defeat at the hands
of No. 5 Kansas with a revenge match against 6th-ranked Baylor
waiting on deck. As it is, the Aggies are just 1-6 ATS at home before
battling a normally average Bears squad, let alone one ranked in
the Top 10. Toss in the fact that 22nd-ranked Kansas State and rival
Texas are just around the corner and you could begin to see why
the Aggies may just play like ‘Coal Miner’s Daughters’ tonight in
College Station as they look past underachieving Oklahoma State.
Our power rankings may favor the hosts but the schedule does
not! Points are optional as we’re calling for the outright upset this
afternoon in Reed Arena.

There’s nothing ‘Blue’ about the Raiders’ 15-4 ATS log this season.
The nation’s top money earners are also 14-1 ATS when not favored
by more than 13 points and a perfect 5-0 ATS when taking points
this season. And against .500 or greater opposition this season, the
Raiders have certainly not lost their ‘Arc’, posting a 6-0 SU and 5-0
ATS mark. This non-conference affair also fi nds the Commodores
in the middle of a nasty SEC revenge sandwich. While Vandy did
get some payback on Tuesday against a Tennessee team who
swept them last season, the Commies are just 4-11 ATS after facing
their archrivals from Knoxville. We also have a feeling that Kevin
Stallings’ squad may be peeking ahead to a Tuesday night matchup
at Arkansas against a herd of hogs that came into Nashville last
year as 13-point dogs and ran away with a 89-78 victory. With a
winless (0-3) record in this series, we can’t call for a Raiders’ outright
win, but we do suggest grabbing the doubles as this ‘blue-headed’
stepchild appears to have a few more teeth this season.

We realize that the Jekyll and Hyde ‘Horns can be dangerous but
their 2-7 SU record off a win this season, including 0-3 in conference
play, tells us that they don’t handle success very well. We’re also
well aware that Rick Barnes’ boys are a dizzy 0-5 ATS after riding
the ‘Cyclone’ and 3-9 ATS with three or more days of rest before
meeting Missouri. Series history sides with Baylor as the Bears have
covered fi ve of the last six and are 7-2 ATS in this matchup with
last-season double-revenge. Before last year’s setbacks, it was
Scott Drew’s sleuths (i.e., a group of Bears) who got the best of
these meetings, winning the last four SU, including a pair of Big
12 Tourney knockouts. Well, UT got its revenge in 2010-2011 and
now it’s Baylor’s turn. The clincher comes in the form of the Bears’
35-10-1 ATS mark with conference revenge when playing off a
previous home loss, including 19-2 ATS when facing a .705

Fortunately, Ricky (Rubio) did lose that number. You know, the
one that had San Antonio winning 16 in a row in this series before
being tripped up by the new-look T-Wolves in this building in
early January, 106-96. However, before thinking that the Wolves
will start a new ‘Minny’ win streak of their own in this series,
remember that the Spurs are still 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their
last 13 visits to the Target Center. Also keep in mind that the
hosts are coming off a scuffl e with the defending champion
Mavs. And to complicate matters, tonight’s contest just may fi nd
Minnesota in ‘La-La’ Land as the Wolves are an unprepared 2-17
SU and 3-16 ATS before meeting the Lakers. While we realize
that the loss of Manu Ginobli (the NBA leader in effi ciency) hurts
the Spurs, it also brings value to this payback affair. We’ll gladly
back the visitors as the Wolves go ‘Timber’ once again.

What’s going on with the Sun Belt this season? At press time,
only FOUR of its 12 member teams boasted an overall winning
record – and the remaining eight programs had combined for a
jaw-dropping 32-72 SU effort against non-conference foes. One
of those losing teams was Arkansas-LR, which amazingly led the
Sun Belt West with a 5-0 mark despite its 8-11 start. But here’s
the real kicker: prior to its meeting with La-Lafayette last a week
ago, UALR was riding an amazing 10-0 ATS win skein. That sort
of anomaly just screams ‘value’ when looking at South Alabama
tonight… especially since the Jags have gone 13-5 SU and 12-
5-1 ATS in this series. The visitors were also 9-0 SU versus losing
teams at press time and will be looking to get even for a loss to
Little Rock in last year’s conference tournament (Jaguars 4-0-
1 ATS as dogs with Sun Belt tourney knockout revenge). Cats
must be on the prowl here if they expect to have any chance
at chasing down East-leading Middle Tennessee State. We’ll do
our part to bolster an ailing economy by making a play on the
‘USA.’

Sports fans in the Keystone State have had little to smile about
lately. Philly’s NFL ‘dream team’ turned into a nightmare, the
Steelers were ousted by Denver in the opening round of the
playoffs, the Penguins’ Sidney Crosby is MIA, the Pitt Panthers
were languishing in the Big East cellar at 0-6 prior to Saturday’s
game against Louisville and the Penn State community has been
in shambles since Joe Paterno’s stunning dismissal. That malaise
has seeped into the Nittany Lions’ basketball squad, sitting at
9-10 SU (1-5 in Big Ten play) under 1st-year head coach Patrick
Chambers. "I'm disappointed with our effort,” Chambers
admitted recently. “We look like we’re in slow motion out
there." Such an assessment would normally spell doom against
the big, bad Buckeyes but we think tonight’s matchup will
instead play out as a classic case of a powerhouse playing down
to the level of a lightly-regarded but determined foe. Our tireless
database concurs, pointing out that the Nits are a surprising 9-2
ATS in this series when catching more than 11 points from Ohio
State, including fi ve consecutive pointspread covers. The Lions
also bring along a triple revenge-sized chip on their collective
shoulders from last season, including a knockout loss in the
conference tournament (PSU now 7-3-1 ATS playing with LTKO
revenge). Following Michigan’s recent win over Michigan State
(ouch), the Bucks will likely be much more focused on their
upcoming game versus the rival Wolverines than here where
they’ll be expected to grab the ‘W’ while barely breaking
a sweat. Penn State lost on this court by a mere 3 points last
season and catches OSU in prime position to deliver another
scare. You know what to do

Maryland may be well known for crab cakes but turtle sandwich
is the order of the day in this matchup. That’s because visiting
Duke arrives off a revenge game with Florida State (5-13-2 ATS
after facing the Seminoles) and will undoubtedly be looking
ahead to a huge grudge match with St. John’s (Blue Devils were
ambushed by the Johnnies at Madison Square Garden last year,
losing 93-78 as 8-point chalk). Considering No. 4 Duke tamed
the Terps three times last season during coach Gary Williams’
swan song – including a 16-point walloping in the ACC tourney
– taking care of new head coach Mark Turgeon’s team shouldn’t
be a tall order, right? Maybe taller than you think. For openers,
Turgeons’ squads at Wichita State and Texas A&M excelled as a
pick or dog in contests versus quality opposition - greater than
.875 - going 17-7-1 ATS. The Terrapins also win the majority of
their pointspread races against the Devils when Duke shows
up with a less-than .900 SU win percentage, going 8-3 ATS. In
addition, the hosts stand 5-1 ATS of late as home dogs if they’re
over .690 and are 4-1 ATS at home when playing with ACC
tourney knockout revenge. Maryland should get a boost from
the addition of newly-eligible 7-1 C Alex Len and PG Pe'shon
Howard, a move that may get ACC scoring leader Terrell Stoglin
to lessen his ball-hogging tendencies. With Duke just 1-3 SU and
0-4 ATS before St. John’s and hitting the road after home dates
with Wake Forest and Florida State, expect the Terps to cash a
winning ticket here.

If you don’t know what a ‘Billiken’ is, you haven’t been payingattention to Saint Louis’ rise from the ashes off last year’s dreadful
12-19 campaign. Currently in the thick of the Atlantic-10 race
thanks to the league’s top scoring defense (allowing just over
56 PPG), the new-look Bills have not gone quietly in their four
defeats, losing by an average of less than 6 PPG. Here they’ll
look to return the favor for a double salvo laid on them by the
X-Men last season, a distinct possibility since Xavier stands just
2-6 ATS in the series if they’re playing less-than .790 basketball
(0-2 ATS versus revenge). Truthfully, the Musketeers have not
been the same since they dropped the gloves in a fi sts-are-fl ying
scrape with Cincinnati: they were 8-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the fi rst
eight games the season but have gone just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1
ATS after they became pugilists. SLU head coach Rick Majerus
has settled into a 9-man rotation that has been so effective
the visitors will be making just their second appearance as an
underdog this campaign. The Billikens’ perfect 7-0 ATS record
as conference road dogs with double revenge cements it. Even if
tonight’s haymakers are more of the twine-tickling variety than
bare knuckles, expect Saint Louis to land the decisive punch in
this upset. And down goes Xavier!

It’s been feast or famine of late in this series matching Volunteer
State rivals: Vandy took both meetings back in 2010, then Tennessee
returned the favor last season by sweeping the Commodores. But
the Vols are in a state of fl ux following the forced departure
of coach Bruce ‘Put Another Shrimp On The Barbie’ Pearl and
have struggled to an 8-10 start under new headman Cuonzo
Martin. Worse, they’ll have to travel to Nashville off a revenge
war with powerful UConn and match up with a Vanderbilt team
that thrives in the role of avenger. Yes, revenge works wonders
in rivalry games, especially with a team fueled by fi ve returning
starters. The Commies have grabbed the cash in four of the last
fi ve series meetings when playing with double revenge, plus they
can boast a 19-9-1 ATS effort with double SEC revenge from the
previous year, including 5-0 ATS the last fi ve. Those numbers fi t
tighter than a Brooklyn Decker bikini with Tennessee’s woeful
0-5 ATS mark as a road dog versus SEC foes with double revenge.
Vandy rode a 7-game win streak into last Thursday’s contest with
Alabama and should feel like it’s stepping down in class after
facing the Tide and Mississippi State in a battle of conference
contenders. Lay the points, sit back and enjoy the show.

Unlike non-division home dogs who seem to be ‘Out of Gas’ when
playing their third straight game with rest, road dogs appear to
‘Fuel Up’ for the fi nale of their three-game troika. It’s likely a case
of over-infl ated lines but for whatever reason, these big pups
are an ‘Awesome’ 19-6 ATS in this role since 1994. Series history
also surprisingly sides with the Nets as they are 23-13 SU and ATS
against the Jordan-less Bulls since 2001, including 12-6 SU and
14-4 ATS when playing less than .450 ball. There’s no question
that Chicago backers will turn a profi t this season (10-6 ATS at
press time), but we couldn’t blame the Bulls if they were to look
past the woeful Nets and this two-touchdown line… especially
with the Pacers on deck (0-4-1 ATS last fi ve before Indiana). The
Jersey Boys won’t get the outright win but they also won’t play
like ‘Rag Dolls’ tonight in the United Center. We say ‘Walk Like a
Man’ and ‘Don’t Think Twice’ about grabbing the doubles.

Here we go again, taking another swing at the nation’s topranked,
undefeated team – provided, of course, they escaped
the wrath of the Irish Saturday night in South Bend. If Syracuse
enters with an unblemished record, our database notes that
20-0 or greater teams are just 9-24-1 ATS when facing .575 or
greater opponents. And should they arrive off a loss to Notre
Dame, they become a prime ‘Bubble Burst’ fade. Either way,
we’ll be looking to put the squeeze on the Orange at Fifth Third
Arena here tonight… especially since the ‘Cuse has struggled to
a 7-15-1 ATS mark after facing the Irish, including 0-5 ATS the
last fi ve meetings. We’re aware that the Bearcats are a modest,
but profi table, 15-10 ATS in their previous 25 appearances as
home dogs but they are an impressive 29-6 SU at home since
last season, with only TWO losses by more than 4 points. Cincy
will also be glad to return to the Queen City after diffi cult road
games against Big East contenders Connecticut (beat Huskies on
a last-second 3-pointer) and West Virginia. Mick Cronin’s team
has had ample time to adjust to the return of several key players
from suspension resulting from the much-publicized brawl with
Xavier in early December (check out forward Yancy Gates, a 6-9
scorer who has stepped up his game on the defensive end of
the court) and will be primed for payback after being dumped
by 15 and 17 points in their last two confrontations with the
Orange. Look for the Cincinnati faithful to storm the court after
the Bearcats take down No. 1.

Like Philadelphia, Indiana’s improved play this season certainly
makes them a playoff contender in the top-heavy East as they
no longer appear to be ‘Indy 500’. And as is the case with the
Sixers above, the Pacers fi nd themselves in a favorable spot
to go toe-to-toe with one of the league’s heavyweights. Los
Angeles returns home from a two-game Florida swing (Miami,
Orlando) with a revenge match against the Clippers waiting in
the wings. The Lakers’ 1-5 ATS home mark after mixing it up
with Dwight Howard and the Magic – along with a 1-5 ATS log
before carpooling with the Clippers – suggests they’re unlikely
to improve on a carefree 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS record on Sundays.
It also tells us to expect another Sunday best from the Pacers
who own a 10-3 ATS record as dogs against Western Conference
foes on this day of the week. Kobe and the Lakers may get the
SU win but we say grab the points as this will be anything but
‘easy like a Sunday morning.’

Since the return of C Reggie Johnson, Miami has been applying
the heat. The Canes have won fi ve of seven since the big man is
back on campus, including a conference home-opening win earlier
this week against Clemson. Jim Larranaga’s boys will look to build
on their 8-1 SU record at home this season and our database likes
their chances. The Hurricanes are a damaging 7-0 ATS in ACC play
before facing Georgia Tech while Larranaga, himself, is 77-34-1
ATS all-time at home when not favored by more than 12 points
– including 34-12 ATS when his team is seeking revenge. Miami
also gets the benefi t of playing an NC State squad that is coming
off a revenger with Boston College (2-5 SU and ATS in the regular
season after fl ying with the Eagles) and eyeing a revenge match
at archrival UNC (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS before Heels) later this week.
Lay the points as the Hurricanes show their Johnson (Reggie) is
bigger than State’s (Alex) in this Sunday nooner.

Despite the Heat’s recent west coast slide, there’s no doubt in
our minds that the Eastern Conference representative in this
year’s NBA fi nals will come either out of Miami or Chicago.
However, this looks to be a good spot for the Atlantic Divisionleading
Sixers to make their presence felt. Yes, the ‘Heatles’
are in the middle of a much-needed fi ve-game home stand but
we have a feeling that the Spurs and Lakers may get much of
Miami’s focus in the prior two contests. It also doesn’t help that
one of the Fab Three, Dwayne Wade, will likely still be nursing
a sore ankle. And while it appears that the Heat have a spent
a bit too much time partying on the weekends (10-18 ATS last
28 Saturday nights), the Sixers have surprisingly made curfew
in their last 46 visits to South Beach, posting a 30-16 ATS log,
including a Bo Derek-like 10-0 ATS when playing without rest.
Philly’s focused 7-2 SU and ATS mark versus .333 or greater
opposition this season has us believing the Sixers make amends
for last year’s opening-round playoff exit. Grab the points as it
looks to be ‘A Hard Day’s Night’ for LeBron and company.

Not only does Kansas’ aforementioned blowout win over Baylor
show that the Big 12 title – as usual – goes through Lawrence
but that the 7th-ranked Jayhawks may very well be a serious
Final Four contender. With that win, Kansas currently sits
alone atop the conference (5-0), a game ahead of both Baylor
and Missouri. However, like Chaucer stated in 1374, and now
supported by our database over 600 years later, “All good things
must come to an end.” You guessed it – the last 10 teams to
knock off a 17-0 or greater foe are just 2-8 ATS in their next
contest. It also doesn’t help that KU toppled the ‘Horns in last
season’s Big 12 conference title game as Texas is 6-2 ATS at home
with conference tourney revenge, including 5-0 ATS when not
laying more than 7 points. Toss in the Longhorns’ 9-3 ATS mark
in this series when seeking payback, including 7-1 ATS when
the Jayhawks are off back-to-back SU wins, and we think you’ll
agree that the great English poet was years ahead of his time.
Don’t write off this home dog.

Home may be where the heart is but the road is where the
money resides involving Cincinnati as the visitor is a Frommerlike
11-2 ATS in Bearcats’ games this season. A quick check of
the SOS (Strength of Schedule) barometer also shows that West
Virginia is 11-1 SU and 7-2 ATS versus .700 or less opposition but
just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS against foes who own a win percentage
of .799 or greater. The Hillbillies also fi nd themselves in the
middle of a revenge sandwich as they’re out to make amends
for a pair of startling home losses they suffered last season –
fi rst to in-state rival Marshall (2-4 ATS after Herd), then to St.
John’s. Additionally, series history sides with the Queen City
‘Cats as they have covered four of the last fi ve, including all
four as a dog. And while we’re well aware that Huggy Bear’s
bunch is on a 9-0 SU and 7-0 ATS run at home since a November
loss to Kent State, we still say don’t be afraid to back the visitors
who proved their moxie with a big win at UConn Tuesday night.
We’ll leave the lights on.

Meaningful revenge comes to the fore as Diego is looking to avenge not only
a costly home loss this season but also a pair of defeats suffered last year to the Black-and-Silver. That’s triple-revenge exact by our count, with each of the three defeats directly contributing to Diego’s eventual absence from the playoffs. To that our database chips in with this nugget: NFL division road teams with triple revenge-exact are 13-2 ATS when playing off a SU and ATS loss and taking on a .625 or less opponent.

The Commies came up on the losing end of the scoreboard in fi ve of the six games
they played (their only win was against Wake Forest in the season finale) while losing the stats by an average -70 YPG against this class of opposition – as opposed to Cincinnati winning the stats an average +10 YPG against fellow bowlers. In fact, prior to its victory over the barely bowl-eligible 6-6 Deacon Demons, Vandy had lost 21 GAMES IN A ROW against bowl squads over the last three years.

.600 or greater pre-New Year’s Day favorites of 7 or more
points that allow more than 26 PPG on the season are 0-9 ATS. And
thanks to a Bears’ defense (479 DYPG) that has more holes than the
Texan one in 1836 – as well as all other bowl teams this season – we
have no choice but to grab the points

Tony Romo and the Cowboys are famous for gagging in December as his 3-8 SU and 1-10 ATS career mark when playing off win would attest, including 0-5 SU and ATS when taking on an opponent off
a win. Toss in Dallas’ dreadful 0-9 ATS mark as division favorites against rivals off back-to-back SU and ATS wins – including 0-5 SU and ATS the last five – and we have plenty of technical support to boot

Missouri comes from the defensively depleted Big 12,and is a team that is just 9-16 ATS in games against bowlers the past four seasons. That’s because Big 12 bowl favorites who own an
equal or greater win percentage than their opponents are 2-6 SU and 0-8 ATS when entering off a season-ending win of 14 or more points.

Not only have the Giants won and
covered four straight against Rex’s Flyboys, they enter this ‘town
ain’t big enough for both of us’ fray with a 13-6 SU and 15-4 ATS
mark in away games versus an opponent off a double-digit SU loss,
including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when the tall guys are also off a SU
loss. And though it’s hard to believe Tom Coughlin’s crew could play
as bad as they did in last week’s loss to Washington, it’s a fact that
his team thrives in road games following Redskin rumbles, going an
impressive 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS.

Minnesota has outgained three of its last four opponents despite coming up on the short end of
the scoreboard in each contest. And that’s because its offense, behind blossoming rookie QB Christian Ponder, has scored 60 points and gained 914 yards the last two games. On the fl ip
side, the visiting Saints invade on a 5-0 SU and ATS win streak despite having allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage in three of their last four games.

Auburn’s opponents tallied a collective .630 percentage, by far the highest
of all bowlers. Defending national champs off a double-digit SU loss are 5-1 SU
and ATS in bowl games or that bowlers off a shutout loss (Virginia)
are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS since 1985. And not only are Gene Chizik’s
resilient Cats a perfect 4-0 SU off a loss this season but they are also
5-0 SU and ATS as bowlers versus a foe off a loss and that ties in
nicely to Virginia HC Mike London’s 0-5 SU and ATS mark off a
loss versus a .580 or greater opponent.